Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down 0.3% over the past week, with negative performances in fixed income and FX outweighing positive equity returns. Bonds were -0.7% WoW and FX -0.2% WoW, versus a +0.2 […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary The Fed is likely to maintain interest rates this week, emphasizing caution on inflation targets and readiness to hike if necessary. We get April’s preliminary inflation in the Eurozone. Our model predicts downside in headline and core vs market expectations. The rest of G10 sees ANZ Business Survey and labour market data, Canada GDP […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up 0.2% over the past week, with positive performances in fixed income and equites countering negative FX returns. Equities and bonds were both up 0.5% WoW, while FX returns […]
Bilal Hafeez
Nick Baltas is a managing director and head of R&D, cross-asset delta-one and commodity systematic trading strategies at Goldman Sachs. Prior to joining Goldman Sachs in 2017, Nick was an executive director in the quantitative research unit of UBS.
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up 0.1% over the past week, with positive performances in fixed income and FX countering negative equity returns. Equities were down 1.9% WoW, while bonds were up 0.6%, and […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary In the US, this week will be all about how Fed speakers react to the hot inflation print. We think September is now the earliest they can cut rates. The UK and Europe will get inflation figures this week. For both the BoE and ECB, we expect June remains the most likely time for […]
Bilal Hafeez
John Coates is the Deputy Dean of Harvard Law School. He has served at the Securities and Exchange Commission, and was a partner at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, specializing in financial institutions.
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up 0.4% over the past week, with positive performances in fixed income and FX outweighing negative equity returns. Equities were down 0.7% WoW, while bonds were up 1%, and […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary The US sees CPI and PPI data this week – both likely to be consistent with a June cut from the Fed. In Europe, the ECB sets policy on Thursday. We expect rates on hold with an optimistic tone to prevail until they get March’s final inflation print. New Zealand’s central bank meets on […]
Bilal Hafeez
Mark Koyama is Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and Mercatus Center. Mark earned his PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford. He focuses on how historical institutions functioned and on the relationship between culture and economic performance.
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were down 0.1% over the past week, with negative equity returns weighing on aggregate performance. Equities were down 0.9% WoW, while bonds were up 0.3% WoW, and FX returns flat. […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary IT capex shows the internet revolution has been ongoing since the 1990s. Yet the macro data shows no obvious impact on productivity. This could reflect measurement issues and a falling labour income share that has made for sluggish demand growth and inflation. Investors have still benefitted from the IT revolution through high profits and […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up 0.4% over the past week, with positive equity returns leading the way. Equities were up 1.0% WoW, with FX returns up 0.5%, while bonds were the laggards, -0.3% […]
Bilal Hafeez
Darrell Duffie is a leading expert on bond markets. He is the Adams Distinguished Professor of Management and Professor of Finance at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University.
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Note: Due to the upcoming holidays, this week’s Markets to Watch covers an extended period, from 25 March to 5 April. Summary US: Friday’s core PCE should support the Fed’s belief in continued disinflation, while NFP (5 April) should show cooling wage growth but strong employment. Europe: preliminary inflation figures out over the next fortnight could […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up 0.5% over the past week, with outsized positive equity returns leading the way. Equities were up 2.1% WoW, with FX returns up 0.4%, while bonds were the laggards, […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary We think the Fed will stay on hold and keep three 2024 cuts in their forecast when they meet on Wednesday. The Bank of England will also likely keep rates steady, with CPI dictating the tone. Yet Tuesday’s BoJ meeting could bring the first hike in a generation following the strongest shunto wage negotiation […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The ongoing residential investment recovery is too small to discernibly impact housing supply and cap housing inflation. Yet it is adding to aggregate demand and could create resource pressures. The risks are finely balanced. On one hand, the US housing shortage supports a strong residential recovery. On the other, Fed support has been much […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary A data-rich week in the US sees the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (PCE) and Q4 GDP come out. Expect both to be too hot for the Fed’s liking. EZ inflation data will likely undershoot ECB expectations, while BoE and ECB speakers could indicate policy outlooks. In the $-bloc, expect a hawkish pause from […]
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