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MACRO · GEOPOLITICS · EQUITIES · CRYPTO · FX
Equities | US
John Tierney
Summary Last week’s selloff in the semiconductor sector most likely opens opportunities to establish positions in the AI hardware sector. Commodity chip producers will continue struggling. The Federal Reserve (Fed) may not be cutting rates for now – but we see zero likelihood it will raise rates. And if the economy slows, we expect rate […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary The US sees CPI and PPI data this week – both likely to be consistent with a June cut from the Fed. In Europe, the ECB sets policy on Thursday. We expect rates on hold with an optimistic tone to prevail until they get March’s final inflation print. New Zealand’s central bank meets on […]
Richard Jones
Summary Long EUR/CHF was one of our strongest conviction trades in Q1 2024. The pair topped out earlier this month, but pullbacks have been shallow and short-lived. We think the Swiss National Bank could sell CHF during its easing cycle, while the BEER valuation for EUR/CHF sees the pair as 8.5% undervalued. Both factors would […]
John H. Welch
Summary Brazil’s fiscal health continues to deteriorate at break-neck speed. The government has abandoned the original, extremely relaxed fiscal targets, and the market is catching on. The Banco Central do Brazil has lowered the SELIC policy rate 300bps since it started easing but has already turned more cautious in discourse if not yet action. Now […]
| Feature | Lite | Prime |
|---|---|---|
| Hive Podcasts | yes | yes |
| Weekly Macro Newsletter | yes | yes |
| Daily Insights Newsletter | yes | |
| Cross Market Strategy | yes | |
| Economic Analysis | yes | |
| Central Bank Policy Analysis | yes | |
| Equity Insights & Trade Ideas | yes | |
| Crypto Flow Frameworks | yes | |
| Academic Paper Summaries | yes | |
| Podcast Transcripts | yes | |
| Hive Minds Investor Chat Room | yes |
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Jim Leitner
President of Falcon Management
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a macro strategist based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy and sell side. Before moving to the US she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics.
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