Surefire Recession Signal in Pictures Argues that US yield curve inversion, like now, is the not the recession signal, but rather the steepening that follows (as market prices Fed cuts)
Will the EU become an empire? If the EU is trying to offset the power of China and the US, then it is acting like an empire.This leaves Britain becoming an anti-imperialist bastion.
Vietnam Looks To Be Winning Trump’s Trade War Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. are growing fast. It runs an overall current account surplus. It is increasingly the final assembly point in the Asian electronics supply chain.
Which Core to Believe? Trimmed Mean Versus Ex-Food-and-Energy Inflation Dallas Fed argues that recent drop core PCE may be transitory as their own (more reliable) trimmed mean measure is going sideways.
Is the U.S. budget deficit sustainable? Fed blogger provides some useful (technical) insights on debt sustainability and the difference between Treasury financing and central bank financing. The immediate punchline is that with low inflation, debt sustainability is not an issue.
A new look at the declining labor share of income in the United States McKinsey Global Institute report finds that less discussed factors such as boom/bust cycles in commodities and real estate and the shift to an intangible capital and intellectual property economy have contributed.
Beyond Unemployment Nobel laureate Michael Spence argues governments shouldn’t just focus on jobs, because even employed people worry about security, health and work-life balance, income and distribution, training, mobility, and opportunity.
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