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The Best Predictor of Stock-Fund Performance (Morningstar) Turns out buying stocks held by successful funds is a reliable trading strategy for success.
“There Is Definite Hanky-Panky Going On”: The Fantastically Profitable Mystery of the Trump Chaos Trades (Vanity Fair) Investigates a number of large e-mini trades on the S&P500, often made right before the market closes and strangely right before a big geopolitical market shaker. Argues that this could be a case of insider trading and calls for heavier regulatory watch.Gulp.
The Banking View of Bond Risk Premia (Haddad, Sraer) Shows that the net exposure of the banking sector to interest rate risk, as measured through banks’ average income gap, strongly forecasts future bond excess returns.