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By Bilal Hafeez 20-09-2019
In: post | Top Picks

Top Picks: Growth & Labour Market

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28th September

How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? (IMF) Basically finds that potential growth is typically over-estimated and real-time estimates of output gaps are useless in forecasting inflation/

One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles (IMF) Counterintuitive findsing that the world growth cycle is weak for most countries and that synchronisation between economies has not increased over time (at least for growth, rather than inflation).

Why Are Some Societies More Entrepreneurial than Others? Evidence from 192 Countries over 2001-2018  (Wharton) Academic paper finds institutional factors like R&D expenditure, STEM education and density of established firms has little bearing on rates of entrepreneurship. Instead, cultural factors like gender equality, societies that value performance and acceptance of status privilege/hierarchy matter more.

Financial Conditions and Purchasing Managers’ Indices: Exploring the Links (BIS) Finds that equity prices, credit spreads and the dollar predicts PMIs

Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Risk (BIS) Decomposing components of yield curve inversion finds mixed signals for recession.

Some Observations on Determining Business Cycle Chronologies (Econbrowser) Provides a survey of how recessions and business cycles are dated. There’s a big variety of definitions – and two negative quarters of GDP is not the best.

 

20th September

The economy is changing thanks to tech – but increasingly the response is for more regulation, whether gig workers or automation-linked processes. We shouldn’t also forget about the dramatic disruption of the retail sector.

Working Conditions on Digital Labour Platforms (VOX) Gig economy workers on these platforms have low wages and poor labour market protections. Expect this area to be regulated soon!

The Economic Consequences of Automation (Project Syndicate) Keynes expert Robert Skidelsky argues that much automation may lead to job losses even in long-run if Karl Marx was right in the need for “reserve army of the unemployed” to keep profits high. Argues for government intervention.

Annual Report on Global Preparedness for Health Emergencies (World Health Organisation) Get scared by reading about all the bad things that can happen (see chart)

Death of Shopping Malls and Department Stores in Five Charts (Mish Talk) Battery of charts showing the rise of online shopping and its deflationary impact.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)