By Bilal Hafeez 13-09-2019
In: post, Other

Top Picks: China


28th September

China in the 2020s: A More Difficult Decade? (George Magnus) In-depth view on China and argues for a much weaker CNY that could end seeing the Chinese economy stay the same size relative to the US in dollar terms over the next 5-10 years.

The New Battle in Hong Kong Isn’t on the Streets; It’s in the Apps (MIT) Activists are using Airdrop, livestreams and maps to circumvent authorities.

Ownership Structure and the Cost of Debt: Evidence from the Chinese Corporate Bond Market (Bank of Finland) Finds state, institutional and foreign ownership reduce spreads.

Third Rehearsal for National Day Celebrations Concludes (Xinhua) About 300,000 people were involved in the rehearsal and related supporting services! 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic will be on Oct 1

Experts Dismantle the Ugly Political Plot that the United States will Manipulate the Hong Kong-related Bill (Xinhua, Chinese) Lengthy piece in Chinese featuring experts arguing against US Congress’ ‘Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy’ Bill. The law would change US relations with HK in response to the protests. The article’s narrative is that the Bill is encouraging protests.

 

20th September

Some past allies of China are changing their tone, HK troubles could continue unless the democratic deficit is corrected. Plus, China is upping its propaganda AI game.

How Hong Kong Got to this Point (Brookings) Analyzes the “hybrid” nature of Hong Kong’s governmental and political structure. It also explains how the current procedure of electing Hong Kong Chief Executives caused civil discontent amongst Hong Kong residents.

Blackstone’s Schwarzman: China’s Economic ‘Miracle’ Came at the Expense of the US and the West (CNBC) Blackstone had string ties with China, so interesting change in tone.

Xi Stresses Integrated Media Development (Xinhua) Government wants “to boost integrated media development and amplify mainstream tone in public communication so as to consolidate the common theoretical foundation for all Party members and all the people to unite and work hard.” Hmm propaganda-AI?

 

13th September

Evaluating International Impacts of China-Specific Shocks in an Input-Output Framework (Bank of Finland) Thorough working paper that estimates impact of China slowdown or trade war on the growth of key countries. On growth, Korea, Australia and Germany are most sensitive.

We Can’t Secure 5G Networks by Banning Huawei Gear (Defense One) 5G network are based widely-distributed software-define digital routing and small-cell antennas. This means any part of the network, including Internet of Things (smart fridges) could be infiltrate the system. US government needs to partner with business on this – otherwise US networks will be vulnerable.

Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data (San Fran Fed) They find that using other countries import data (Fed’s so-called C-CAT index) can track Chinese growth. Over time, official Chinese GDP has become more accurate, but it still understates the volatility of growth.

A Requiem for “Blame It on Beijing” Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses (Chinn and Ito) Argues that relative fiscal policies rather than the savings glut explain global imbalances

 

6th September

Can Presidents Block Investment in China? (Council on Foreign Relations, 4 min read). Apparently Trump could use International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA) to prevent US companies from making future investments in China. He could also use it to make it harder to continue to do business in China.

China to Take Targeted Measures for Steady Economic Growth (State Council, 2 min read) Official announcement that RRR cuts are their way. Credit has been surprisingly lacking this year, so this could provide a boost. Bullish for risk markets.

The Background to HK Turmoil (Xinhua, 4 min read). The op-ed was written in Chinese and argues that unrest in HK was caused by the increase living expenses for HK residents, the inability to afford housing, lack of upward mobility and the inability of the local government to respond to requests from the public.

Hong Kong Leader Carrie Lam to Withdraw Extradition Bill That Sparked Protests (WSJ, 5 min read) Withdrawing the bill no longer the top priority among the “five demands” from the Hong Kong protesters – the top one is holding to account the police officers attacking protesters. Doubt this will ever happen!

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