George Goncalves

Macro Hive Author

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SPECIALITY: Rates, US,

George Goncalves is a bond market veteran with over 20yrs on the sell-side and buy-side. During that time frame he was an active guest on Bloomberg TV and CNBC as well as quoted many times over in the financial press. Currently he is an independent researcher operating under the twitter handle of @bondstrategist and is a senior contributor to the macrohive.com. He focuses on rates, credit, the Fed/global central bank policy, US dollar funding dynamics and all things macro-related.

For nearly a decade George was at Nomura Securities, first as the chief US rates strategist and later as the head of Fixed Income Strategy for the Americas. Over his tenure at Nomura he ended up running teams of analysts covering US rates, US credit (IG and High Yield) and emerging market rates. Prior to that George was the Head of FI Strategy at Cantor Fitzgerald and a senior research analyst at both Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. George started out in the Fixed Income markets on the buyside at the formerly known Merrill Lynch Asset Management division, trading and managing Treasuries, commercial obligations and MBS securities as an assistant PM analyst.

George has written a chapter on TIPS and inflation products for the IFR Market Intelligence book series and was voted one of the top 20 rising stars in Fixed Income by Institutional Investor in 2007. Over the years George has interacted with many debt issuers (from the Treasury to global corporates to GSEs etc) and established a wide network of institutional investors from FX reserves managers, Bank Treasury portfolio managers, real money (insurance, pensions, mutual funds) and macro hedge funds.

He received his joint degree in Finance/Economics and Political Science from Rutgers University’s School of Management and from the Honors College at Rutgers.

MY ARTICLES

US Federal Reserve

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

FOMC Preview: More Signalling Than Forecasting

March 16, 2021

Summary Entering this week’s meeting, the Fed likely has three key objectives: Placing the recovery on solid footing. Strengthening the credibility of…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Rates

A Smaller COVID Relief Deal and Yellen’s Funding Dilemmas

February 02, 2021

Summary A bipartisan COVID relief deal around $700bn appears most likely. This is due to moderate Democratic senators’ de facto veto and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

FOMC Preview: Tamping Down the Taper Talks

January 26, 2021

Summary 2021 sees a more dovish FOMC voter block, yet the tone at the year’s first meeting should deviate little from the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

FOMC Preview: Does The Lame Duck Session Also Apply To The Fed?

December 16, 2020

The last FOMC meeting of 2020 is upon us. Given the year we’ve just had we doubt the Fed wants to create…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Striking a Minor Discord? The Treasury Wants Its Money Back…

November 20, 2020

Summary As we expected, Secretary Mnuchin did not renew the key 13(3) facilities aimed at credit and muni market support and has…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

A Year-End Credit Tightening Event Ahead?

November 10, 2020

Summary Key GOP policymakers have stated that Fed lending facilities should not be extended at end-year. The incoming Treasury secretary could reverse…

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The US Presidential Election: The Possible Outcomes and Their Market Implications

October 29, 2020

Summary With the US economic recovery losing momentum amid political discord, it is not only the size but the timing of the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

US TIPS vs Gold, Part 3: From Inflation to Real Rates

October 22, 2020

Summary TIPS-implied real rates are being driven lower by supply/demand imbalances, the Fed’s forward guidance on interest rates and balance-sheet policies, and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Markets and Investing US

Reports Of The Bond Market’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

October 13, 2020

Summary The recent 63 business days of price action has a strong influence on the direction of yields, where providing yields do…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

US TIPS vs Gold, Part 2: Inflation Hedges And Beyond

September 28, 2020

Both gold and TIPS can provide a suitable hedge for rising inflation, but which is better? In part 1 of this two-part…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

US TIPS vs Gold, Part 1: Understanding Inflation Is The First Step In Hedging It

September 17, 2020

The possibility of rising inflation on the horizon means investors should consider their hedging options. In this piece, we weigh up US…

Fed Dovish Stance

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

September 2020 FOMC Preview: Struggling To Enhance Their Extreme Dovish Stance

September 15, 2020

Economic uncertainty and recent signs of a slowing recovery suggest the Fed will maintain its cautious outlook and the 2021-22 Summary of…

Fed Dovish

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

July FOMC Preview: The Setup For Dovish September Policy Moves?

July 29, 2020

This past year feels like a blur for all the obvious reasons. But before the all-out blitzkrieg easing campaign that the Fed…

In: Deep Dives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

UST Liquidity: Safe-Haven Status At Risk Or A Sign Of B/S Constraints?

July 15, 2020

What is liquidity? In market parlance, it’s the idea that investors have the ability to quickly buy or sell an asset without…

USTs

In: Hive Exclusives | Rates US

Flows: Will Swap Lines / FIMA Reduce FCB Demand For US Treasuries?

June 25, 2020

No two periods are alike but what is starkly different now from the GFC is that foreign investors (including foreign central banks – FCBs) were sellers…

Flows UST

In: Hive Exclusives | Rates US

Flows: Witnessing An Ever-Fading Foreign Dominance In USTs?

June 18, 2020

There are a number of market beliefs that develop over time which end up being accepted without question. One of those givens is that foreign…

Jerome Powell FOMC

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

FOMC Preview: Aiming For Neutral Might Be Hawkish Amidst Bull Markets

June 10, 2020

If this were any other period (or more like any other dimension), Fed Chair Powell should express some concerns over the growing speculation that has…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

Follow The Money (Market Funds)…

June 09, 2020

Over the last five years, the Treasury decided to maintain large cash balances at the Fed for a variety of reasons. However, those levels have jumped off…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

US Policy Net Liquidity Challenges And Market Implications

June 04, 2020

With the dust now settled post weeks of massive Fed liquidity injections, I explore the concepts of the Fed’s directive to maintain “market function”…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The Fed’s Constructive Negative Rates Ambiguity

May 12, 2020

Several Fed Funds futures contracts began pricing above 100 last week, implying that markets were pricing in a small negative Fed Funds rate in…

New York Stock Exchange

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

Fed Preview: Break On Through To The NIRP Side With A Super-sized B/S?

April 29, 2020

With the dust now settled post weeks of massive Fed liquidity injections, I explore the concepts of the Fed’s directive to maintain “market function”…

Coronavirus - covid 2019 is not true

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

Exploring COVID-19 Scenarios And US Market Implications

April 02, 2020

US equities just finished their worst first-quarter performance in history only to be met with the worst first-day start of a new quarter. 2020 started off with…

Fed Interest Rate Cut

In: Hive Exclusives | Credit FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Fed And Money Markets: At The Crossroads Of A Mad Dash For Cash?

March 05, 2020

In money markets, months, quarters, and even years can pass with little fanfare. And then all of sudden, a new regime sprouts up and events shift rapidly…

US Treasury

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Fiscal Policy & Inequality

20yr Bond Comeback: Treasury Uses 20/20 Vision Back To The 1980s?

February 13, 2020

After much consultation, the US Treasury will be re-adding the 20-year bond back into its suite of marketable debt products in an effort to expand…

Jerome Powell

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

FOMC Preview: Keeping A Wait And See Attitude Throughout Q1

January 29, 2020

As we head into the first FOMC meeting of 2020, and of the new decade, the Fed has a number of issues to deal with this year and thus everyone…

Rabbit Hole

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

Year-End: One More Look Down The Repo And Reserves Rabbit Hole

December 18, 2019

As we head into the final days of trading in 2019, the Fed is taking no chances. But at the same time, they are avoiding jumping to QE4…

Governor Jerome H. Powell

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

FOMC Preview: Fed Aims For Smooth Passage Into 2020

December 11, 2019

Cracks are forming on the fringes of credit markets, but most asset classes are doing well year-to-date and have avoided any major corrections…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Fed’s Challenge To Administer Liquidity Into Year-End And Beyond

December 05, 2019

Even with hundreds of billions of dollars in new liquidity created out of thin air, it’s too soon for the Fed to signal a clear coast for repo markets…

Fed Reserve

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

FOMC: Cutting Interest Rates Again – Third Time’s The Charm?

October 30, 2019

The Fed will want today’s meeting to be as dull as possible with an expected 25bps cut and the repetition of ‘act as appropriate’ as a nod to future…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Understanding Fed Policy: QE Returns Thanks To QT Aftershocks And Repo Shock

October 17, 2019

2019 has seen major reversals by central banks the world over. None, however, are more noteworthy than the Fed’s, particularly as they relate to…

China

In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates UK US

Thoughts From Camp Kotok 2019: China, MMT, And Lower/NIRP Rates

August 22, 2019

I recently had the pleasure of spending time chatting and fishing with market participants and other big-picture thinkers at the annual Camp Kotok (CK) event…

Jerome Powell

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

The Fed’s Shooting Star: An Insurance Cut Or The Start Of An Easing Cycle?

July 30, 2019

In the US, July will conclude with a series of potentially spectacular meteor showers and, perhaps more eye catching, the first Fed rate cut…

Currency

In: Hive Exclusives | Rates US

Fed Needs 50bps Cut For Impact

June 13, 2019

A combination of disappointing US jobs and inflation data, dovish Fed comments, and concerns over trade deals has brought Fed rate…

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