George Goncalves

Macro Hive Author

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SPECIALITY: Rates, US,

George Goncalves is a bond market veteran with over 20yrs on the sell-side and buy-side. During that time frame he was an active guest on Bloomberg TV and CNBC as well as quoted many times over in the financial press. Currently he is an independent researcher operating under the twitter handle of @bondstrategist and is a senior contributor to the macrohive.com. He focuses on rates, credit, the Fed/global central bank policy, US dollar funding dynamics and all things macro-related.

For nearly a decade George was at Nomura Securities, first as the chief US rates strategist and later as the head of Fixed Income Strategy for the Americas. Over his tenure at Nomura he ended up running teams of analysts covering US rates, US credit (IG and High Yield) and emerging market rates. Prior to that George was the Head of FI Strategy at Cantor Fitzgerald and a senior research analyst at both Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. George started out in the Fixed Income markets on the buyside at the formerly known Merrill Lynch Asset Management division, trading and managing Treasuries, commercial obligations and MBS securities as an assistant PM analyst.

George has written a chapter on TIPS and inflation products for the IFR Market Intelligence book series and was voted one of the top 20 rising stars in Fixed Income by Institutional Investor in 2007. Over the years George has interacted with many debt issuers (from the Treasury to global corporates to GSEs etc) and established a wide network of institutional investors from FX reserves managers, Bank Treasury portfolio managers, real money (insurance, pensions, mutual funds) and macro hedge funds.

He received his joint degree in Finance/Economics and Political Science from Rutgers University’s School of Management and from the Honors College at Rutgers.

MY ARTICLES


  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

    US TIPS vs Gold, Part 3: From Inflation to Real Rates

    October 22, 2020

    Summary TIPS-implied real rates are being driven lower by supply/demand imbalances, the Fed’s forward guidance on interest rates and balance-sheet policies, and…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Markets and Investing US

    Reports Of The Bond Market’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

    October 13, 2020

    Summary The recent 63 business days of price action has a strong influence on the direction of yields, where providing yields do…

  • Fed Dovish

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    July FOMC Preview: The Setup For Dovish September Policy Moves?

    July 29, 2020

    This past year feels like a blur for all the obvious reasons. But before the all-out blitzkrieg easing campaign that the Fed…

  • In: Deep Dives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    UST Liquidity: Safe-Haven Status At Risk Or A Sign Of B/S Constraints?

    July 15, 2020

    What is liquidity? In market parlance, it’s the idea that investors have the ability to quickly buy or sell an asset without…

  • USTs

    In: Hive Exclusives | Rates US

    Flows: Will Swap Lines / FIMA Reduce FCB Demand For US Treasuries?

    June 25, 2020

    No two periods are alike but what is starkly different now from the GFC is that foreign investors (including foreign central banks – FCBs) were sellers…

  • Flows UST

    In: Hive Exclusives | Rates US

    Flows: Witnessing An Ever-Fading Foreign Dominance In USTs?

    June 18, 2020

    There are a number of market beliefs that develop over time which end up being accepted without question. One of those givens is that foreign…

  • Jerome Powell FOMC

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    FOMC Preview: Aiming For Neutral Might Be Hawkish Amidst Bull Markets

    June 10, 2020

    If this were any other period (or more like any other dimension), Fed Chair Powell should express some concerns over the growing speculation that has…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    Follow The Money (Market Funds)…

    June 09, 2020

    Over the last five years, the Treasury decided to maintain large cash balances at the Fed for a variety of reasons. However, those levels have jumped off…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    US Policy Net Liquidity Challenges And Market Implications

    June 04, 2020

    With the dust now settled post weeks of massive Fed liquidity injections, I explore the concepts of the Fed’s directive to maintain “market function”…

  • New York Stock Exchange

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    Fed Preview: Break On Through To The NIRP Side With A Super-sized B/S?

    April 29, 2020

    With the dust now settled post weeks of massive Fed liquidity injections, I explore the concepts of the Fed’s directive to maintain “market function”…

  • Coronavirus - covid 2019 is not true

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    Exploring COVID-19 Scenarios And US Market Implications

    April 02, 2020

    US equities just finished their worst first-quarter performance in history only to be met with the worst first-day start of a new quarter. 2020 started off with…

  • Fed Interest Rate Cut

    In: Hive Exclusives | Credit FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Fed And Money Markets: At The Crossroads Of A Mad Dash For Cash?

    March 05, 2020

    In money markets, months, quarters, and even years can pass with little fanfare. And then all of sudden, a new regime sprouts up and events shift rapidly…

  • US Treasury

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Fiscal Policy & Inequality

    20yr Bond Comeback: Treasury Uses 20/20 Vision Back To The 1980s?

    February 13, 2020

    After much consultation, the US Treasury will be re-adding the 20-year bond back into its suite of marketable debt products in an effort to expand…

  • Jerome Powell

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    FOMC Preview: Keeping A Wait And See Attitude Throughout Q1

    January 29, 2020

    As we head into the first FOMC meeting of 2020, and of the new decade, the Fed has a number of issues to deal with this year and thus everyone…

  • Rabbit Hole

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    Year-End: One More Look Down The Repo And Reserves Rabbit Hole

    December 18, 2019

    As we head into the final days of trading in 2019, the Fed is taking no chances. But at the same time, they are avoiding jumping to QE4…

  • Governor Jerome H. Powell

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    FOMC Preview: Fed Aims For Smooth Passage Into 2020

    December 11, 2019

    Cracks are forming on the fringes of credit markets, but most asset classes are doing well year-to-date and have avoided any major corrections…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Fed’s Challenge To Administer Liquidity Into Year-End And Beyond

    December 05, 2019

    Even with hundreds of billions of dollars in new liquidity created out of thin air, it’s too soon for the Fed to signal a clear coast for repo markets…

  • Fed Reserve

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    FOMC: Cutting Interest Rates Again – Third Time’s The Charm?

    October 30, 2019

    The Fed will want today’s meeting to be as dull as possible with an expected 25bps cut and the repetition of ‘act as appropriate’ as a nod to future…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    Understanding Fed Policy: QE Returns Thanks To QT Aftershocks And Repo Shock

    October 17, 2019

    2019 has seen major reversals by central banks the world over. None, however, are more noteworthy than the Fed’s, particularly as they relate to…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    FOMC Preview: Easing for Markets Helps a Levered Economy

    September 18, 2019

  • China

    In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates UK US

    Thoughts From Camp Kotok 2019: China, MMT, And Lower/NIRP Rates

    August 22, 2019

    I recently had the pleasure of spending time chatting and fishing with market participants and other big-picture thinkers at the annual Camp Kotok (CK) event…

  • Jerome Powell

    In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    The Fed’s Shooting Star: An Insurance Cut Or The Start Of An Easing Cycle?

    July 30, 2019

    In the US, July will conclude with a series of potentially spectacular meteor showers and, perhaps more eye catching, the first Fed rate cut…

  • Currency

    In: Hive Exclusives | Rates US

    Fed Needs 50bps Cut For Impact

    June 13, 2019

    A combination of disappointing US jobs and inflation data, dovish Fed comments, and concerns over trade deals has brought Fed rate…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

    US TIPS vs Gold, Part 3: From Inflation to Real Rates

    October 22, 2020

    Summary TIPS-implied real rates are being driven lower by supply/demand imbalances, the Fed’s forward guidance on interest rates and balance-sheet policies, and…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

    US TIPS vs Gold, Part 2: Inflation Hedges And Beyond

    September 28, 2020

    Both gold and TIPS can provide a suitable hedge for rising inflation, but which is better? In part 1 of this two-part…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

    US TIPS vs Gold, Part 1: Understanding Inflation Is The First Step In Hedging It

    September 17, 2020

    The possibility of rising inflation on the horizon means investors should consider their hedging options. In this piece, we weigh up US…

  • Fed Dovish Stance

    In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    September 2020 FOMC Preview: Struggling To Enhance Their Extreme Dovish Stance

    September 15, 2020

    Economic uncertainty and recent signs of a slowing recovery suggest the Fed will maintain its cautious outlook and the 2021-22 Summary of…

  • USTs

    In: Hive Exclusives | Rates US

    Flows: Will Swap Lines / FIMA Reduce FCB Demand For US Treasuries?

    June 25, 2020

    No two periods are alike but what is starkly different now from the GFC is that foreign investors (including foreign central banks – FCBs) were sellers…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    The Fed’s Constructive Negative Rates Ambiguity

    May 12, 2020

    Several Fed Funds futures contracts began pricing above 100 last week, implying that markets were pricing in a small negative Fed Funds rate in…

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