Vasileios Gkionakis (Vas) has over 17 years of experience in research and portfolio management, both on the sell and the buy side (Citigroup, BAML, UniCredit, Fulcrum Asset Management, Lombard Odier). He has held various roles including Co-Head of Strategy Research and Head of FX strategy. Vas holds a PhD from the London School of Economics.
Vasileios Gkionakis
US fiscal policy is extremely loose and the most misaligned with underlying economic dynamics since 1980. Despite Wednesday’s announcement, the US budget deficit appears to be some 5ppts (of GDP) wider relative to employment trends.
Vasileios Gkionakis
It is a big week for UK data: monthly fluctuations are hard to predict but, overall, the releases will likely confirm further labour market loosening and falling inflation.
Vasileios Gkionakis
The last few weeks have seen several material developments in global markets. Nominal and real yields at multi-year highs alongside soaring oil prices have recently added to existing trends (dwindling excess savings and contracting global trade), increasing the risk of a global recession.
Vasileios Gkionakis
Oil prices are soaring, with Brent crude up nearly 30% this quarter. The supply side is driving the rise, increasing the risk of significant deterioration in global activity and upside to inflation.
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