Antonio is Head of US Rates Strategy at Macro Hive, focusing on the US economy and rates markets and G5 FX. Formerly, he worked at macro hedge funds, including Tudor, Maniyar Capital and Brevan Howard. He holds a Master in Finance from the ETH/University of Zurich and a Master in Economics from Bocconi University.
Monetary Policy & Inflation | UK
Antonio Del Favero
Summary We expect the MPC to leave the Bank Rate at 3.75% on June 18. Forward guidance is unlikely to be altered, but, given the dovish data, the tone in the minutes could become more balanced. We expect a 7-2 vote split, but we see the risk that just Huw Pill could vote for a […]
Antonio Del Favero
Summary The ECB delivered a 25bp hike as expected, but the hawkish bias was clear. Revised core inflation higher, with risks skewed to the upside. Robust-across-scenarios framing. No peak language. Forecasts were conditioned on rates already 75bp above pre-cycle levels. This leaves further tightening on the table, barring a collapse in oil prices. Market Implications […]
Antonio Del Favero
Summary Oil and SoH drive rates, not central banks: Short-end rates (EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD) are currently tightly linked to oil prices, which depend on the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) situation. Oil up, short-end rates up, and vice versa. There is an oil price level where the short end can disconnect from the oil price, […]
Antonio Del Favero
Summary The MPC will hold at 3.75%, most likely 7-2, with Pill and Greene dissenting. The split between 7-2 and 8-1 or 9-0 remains an extremely close call. Honestly, if Mann were to join (7-3), we would not be too surprised. However, we do not expect this to happen. Post-March data tells two conflicting stories: […]
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