The Macro Dilettante returns with a bearish take on the economy with a dash of musical references. We update our US election tracker and find that Trump’s polling has improved, though his odds of winning the election remain low. The tracker also shows that Kamala Harris is the favourite to be Biden’s running mate.
We’re also pleased to feature John Llewellyn on our latest podcast episode. John is the co-founder of Llewellyn Consulting – a leading independent economic advisory firm. We discuss the challenge of returning to pre-COVID output, MMT, climate change and more. A must-listen.
On my curations, we have a great selection of pieces this week. FX expert Stephen Jen argues for dollar strength on his dollar smile framework. Uber-bear Nouriel Roubini lists non-COVID risks for the rest of 2020, and Politico asks, what happens if President Trump postpones the election? We also highlight some excellent academic papers ranging from using Google Trends to predict stock returns to using flow data to predict bond returns.
On another note, many of our readers will be aware of our main site, macrohive.com. But there is another side to Macro Hive, where we deliver much more in-depth analysis which incorporates trade ideas, models and insights from our network. Our recent positioning data shows that the euro is near historic longs, but our expert trade ideas summary suggests people are initiating euro-dollar short positions. Is the market topping out? Drop me an email and I can tell you more.
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