It seems like researchers have ramped up their COVID-related analysis, so we’ve got a great selection of pieces today.
On the econ side, one study finds that inflation is expected to fall due to COVID, while another argues that the CPI calculations could be understating inflation by not accounting for a decline in the variety and quality of products. The BIS lays out some growth scenarios including a W-shaped recovery. Their numbers are pretty negative for EM. We have a couple of big shot economists including Oliver Blanchard and James Bullard giving their take on how to conduct policy around COVID.
On the markets side, we have a Fed paper that looks at plagues/pandemics back to the 14th century and finds that real rates tend to fall after such events. A blogger notes that valuations do not provide a good guide to equity market bottoms and an academic study finds that not even the Spanish Flu had as much impact on markets as COVID is currently having. Finally, ESG funds appear to have performed well recently due to them excluding oil and airline stocks.
Also, check out our latest COVID tracker, where we look at how the UK has understated the COVID death count.
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