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By Bilal Hafeez 27-11-2019
In: post | Newsletter

Macro Hive Exclusives: Optimistic Charts / Ukraine / Sweden Back To Zero

(3 min read)
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Our letter is out a day earlier than normal as its US Thanksgiving tomorrow. Indeed, our first report uses that holiday as a theme. We pick eight charts to give thanks to (get it!). I’ve already had a bunch of people thank me for writing something optimistic on the world.

With Ukraine in the news thanks to the Trump impeachment enquiry, I thought we should feature something on the country. Regional expert, Tatiana Orlova, gives her take on easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. This could prove positive for their markets.

Finally, we have former HSBC and Morgan Stanley researcher and trader, Anton Tonev, write on Sweden. It could be the first negative rate country to move back to zero rates. He discusses this in the context of other hiking countries: Norway and Canada.




8 Charts To Give Thanks For (6 min read) This week sees Americans celebrate Thanksgiving. It’s a holiday that brings families together, celebrates harmony, and recognises the bounty of harvest. So what better time to remind ourselves that despite headlines crying out otherwise, not all is bad in the world. We look at 8 charts with an optimistic take.

( Bilal Hafeez | 25th November, 2019 )


Russia Vs. Ukraine



Russia Vs. Ukraine: Donbas Thaw Could Help Credit (3 min read) Since the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, when Ukrainian President Yanukovych was ousted, Russia has been involved in a military conflict in eastern Ukraine. Pro-Russian separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian army for control of a sizeable area in Donbas, a province in eastern Ukraine that borders Russia. This has been a major geopolitical risk that has held back the performance of Ukrainian assets. Now seems to be some signs of this conflict easing, which could be positive for credit.

( Tatiana Orlova | 27th November, 2019 )

Sweden To Join Northern Hikers – Policy Error? (2 min read) The divergence of monetary policy in Norway, Canada, and now possibly Sweden from that of the rest of the world over the last twelve months is stark. While almost every other central bank has turned dovish, the Norges bank has hiked four times since September last year while the Bank of Canada has hiked five times since mid-2017. And the Riskbank in its October meeting pretty much guaranteed a hike at its 19 December meeting. Looking strictly at economic activity, it’s questionable whether these hikes are warranted.


Rate Hike Hawkish

( Anton Tonev | 27th November, 2019 )


(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)



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