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We have an excellent letter this week. A senior Deutsche Bank insider has given his (or her) take on DB following their poor results last week. They’re writing under the pen name “Robert James”. The outlook is not good. Widely followed macro gurus, John Llewellyn and Russell Jones tackle populists favourite new policy prescription, MMT. Needless to say, they are not fans.
Then we have EM and geopolitics specialist Thanos Papasavvas adding nuance to the narrative around social unrest around the world. He focuses on Chile and argues it needs to be viewed less pessimistically. Finally, we have regular contributor, John Tierney, remind us what we learnt from markets in October.
Deutsche Bank Is Losing Its Fixed Income Franchise (4 min read) We feature a senior Deutsche Bank insider writing under the pen name Robert James give his (or her) take on DB’s future following their recent earnings. It doesn’t look pretty…
( Robert James | 7th November, 2019 )
MMT: The Populists’ Magic Money Tree (4 min read) John Llewellyn, co-founder and Russell Jones, Partner at Llewellyn Consulting give a sober assessment of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and why we will see a growing backing for blanket job guarantees to address income and wealth inequality; left-of-centre political parties will use it most. But given that debt accumulation cannot go on indefinitely, it can lead to a disaster.
( John Llewellyn and Russell Jones | 6th November, 2019 )
Will Chilean Social Unrest Follow A Greek or French Pattern? (3 min read) Thanos Pappasavas shares his optimistic view on the recent social unrest in Chile – the protests are likely to follow France’s gilets jaunes and he doesn’t see a derailing of the economy or any risk for the peso. Chile has for many years been the ‘Switzerland’ of Latin America – a bastion of stability and economic rectitude since its return to democracy in 1990 – it’s a question on whether it will remain as such.
( Thanos Pappasavas | 7th November, 2019 )
What Investors Learned In October (4 min read) John Tierney succinctly wraps up all you need to know for markets in October. Equities were on a rollercoaster ride during the first week of the month on several negative data surprises, but then marched higher on solid earnings reports. Indeed, much of October was about new developments that could lead to market moving events in coming weeks and months.
( John Tierney | 5th November, 2019 )