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By Bilal Hafeez 10-10-2019
In: post | Newsletter

Macro Hive Exclusives: A Personal Message + Market Resilience / Consensus FX Views / Risk Update

2 min read
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Some of you may have noticed that I’ve been less active with The Hive over the past week or so. It was because I had some bad news on the family front – my mother passed away. I wrote a short blog on the topic and I’ve been heartened by the outpouring of support and kind words from the Macro Hive community and wider readers. For that, I thank you.

The Macro Hive team has also helped me greatly through this process. Upon hearing my news, they stepped up to launch our new site and keep the content coming. It makes me realise that organisations can accommodate and support people as they go through tough points in their life. Hopefully, we can retain that culture both within Macro Hive the company and also with the Macro Hive community at large.

Back to Macro Hive content. Today, we have cross-market thinker Sam Bonney return to talking about the business cycle and asset market performance. He poses the question: why are markets not responding more to weak growth? I’ve also written two pieces. My first is on consensus FX forecasts amongst banks. What are the big views and where are people most likely to be surprised? My second piece updates our Macro Hive Risk Barometer. I tie policy uncertainty into the discussion, too.

I hope you enjoy the pieces. Please do give feedback and follow us on Twitter.



Why Is Lower Growth Not Leading To Weaker Markets? (4 min read) Credit risk premia and implied volatility remain at very low levels despite slower growth and lukewarm indicators. In this excellent analysis, Sam Bonney offers his three possible explanations on this benign assessment of risk premia – markets now have a lower recession threshold, Central Banks intervention have led to distortion or markets are getting it all wrong.

(Sam Bonney | 10th October, 2019)



What are J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs & Others Expecting In FX? (3 min read) A succinct guide to FX for the next 12 months, neatly compiling the major banks’ views. The bearish consensus on the dollar seems to be here to stay, despite a recent uptick. Banks see further strength against the greenback for the Scandis, the Pound (hoping for a benign Brexit) and major gains in most EMs. Plenty of space for surprises, however.

(Bilal Hafeez | 10th October, 2019)

Macro Hive Risk Barometer Update: Avoiding Risk Aversion For Now (2 min read) Using our risk models to create a sentiment barometer across various markets, we see equities flirting with risk aversion, credit and EMs close to threshold but easing and FX playing it safe. We also run a Political risk index to show how politics is influencing risk appetite.

(Bilal Hafeez | 10th October, 2019)


(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)