We focus in on the surprisingly low cases in Japan for our COVID tracker today. Despite having one of the world’s oldest populations it has recorded fewer cases than Czech Republic or Australia who have much smaller population and, of course, are further from China. With schools set to re-open testing may be stepped up and a surge in new cases is very possible.
For our Deep Dives today we focus on a key element of every central bank toolkit, the DGSE model. With central banks currently recalibrating their models to try to estimate the size of the shock from the coronavirus a recap the limitations and extensions of these models seems particularly timely. We also incorporate the findings of a NY Fed paper looking at how these models performed during the financial crisis.
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