Key Events: Markets to Stay on Edge as Tariff Fallout Will Persist
- By Macro Hive
Key Events
G10
In the US, there is…
- CPI and PPI – Thursday and Friday. Consensus sees an acceleration of MoM core CPI to 30bp from 20bp in February. However, this will be pre-tariff data and therefore obsolete. The more important data will be continued market reaction to the tariff announcements, the administration’s explanations, possible attempts to mitigate the damage wreaked on the US economy, and most importantly, the Fed’s reaction.
Elsewhere in G10:
- Japan labour cash earnings – Monday. Japanese wages likely picked up in January with the labour market remaining tight, as revealed in the Tankan survey.
- New Zealand NZIER survey – Monday. We are watching for an improvement in historical activity measures and whether inflation metrics remain elevated.
- Norway CPI – Thursday. The last inflation print helped delay the Norges Bank cutting cycle. They expect core inflation to remain at +3.4% YoY.
EM
- China PPI – Thursday. HF domestic commodity prices indicate roughly unchanged PPI at about -2.2% in March.
- China CPI – Thursday. We expect CPI to return to around 0%, after the February’s dip due to the LNY-mismatch.
Central Banks in Action
- RBNZ to cut by 25bp – Wednesday. An already expected cut was cemented following Liberation Day.
- Fed minutes – Wednesday. These are the minutes of the 19 March FOMC (i.e., pre-tariff) so not as important as the speakers.
- Fed Musalem and Williams – Friday. There will be nine Fed speakers next week, providing their assessment of the tariffs. We will be especially focused on Musalem and Williams who are among the more economically-minded FOMC members.
- Fed Bowman confirmation hearing – Thursday. Bowman, appointed to the Fed Board by Trump, has been nominated as vice-chair for supervision. This will be an opportunity to hear about the administration’s plans for regulatory reform.
Markets to Watch
- USD and US rates remain in focus next week with markets upping the intensity on stagflation.
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