Ep. 2: An Original Take On The COVID Crisis – Time As A Symptom
- By Bilal Hafeez
- 1 min read
In this episode, we’re lucky to have a conversation with one of the most original macro thinkers, the Macro Dilettante. He prefers not to disclose his name, but I’ve known him for years and is a super experienced market pro having worked at asset managers, in alternative investments and at pension funds. Back in January, he warned me about the global consequences of COVID and I mistakenly didn’t heed his advice until much later.
During our conversation, we talk about the importance of understanding time as well prices in markets, the significance of pension funds in this crisis, the possibility of bonds selling-off and what policymakers should do to fix the crisis.
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The Macro Dilettante spent 6 years as a Physicist. He has worked in financial markets since 1988. His experience incorporates fixed income and foreign exchange in Global Markets. His roles have included Head of Global Foreign Exchange at an asset manager , Head of Euro Liquidity at a UK bank, Portfolio Manager for several Alternative Asset managers. Most recently as Head of Market’s & Investment Director responsible for Fixed Income at a UK Pension Fund.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)
Really interesting Pod. I cannot agree more that the psychological impact of this will go way beyond the virus being defeated. For the ‘NOW/Throw Away’ generation, surely the speed and size of job losses we have seen will lead to greater reflection on what is important with a shift towards a greater emphasis on staples and savings and away from non essential purchases using HP or loans. This must raise significant hurdles for retail if consumers decide they do not need the latest model, for automobile purchases and the finance companies that facilitate them, gyms and leisure centre memberships with people having a greater appreciation of the outdoors and awareness of cleanliness, and housing at a retail and commercial level where purchases are reconsidered leaving an increase in supply and pressure on prices.
The take on PF’s and Investment tourism also spot on, the speed of the move has been so rapid that there have to be many outstanding/trapped positions that will dominate price action across asset classes for the foreseeable future.
Good points Andy. I’m thinking there could be parallels to the austere times often seen after the war (like UK in the 1950s)