Ep. 204: Claudia Sahm on Inflation Risks, Fed Cuts, and Recession

Claudia Sahm is a well-known, highly regarded, Washington-based expert on monetary and fiscal policy and forecasting. She has advised decision-makers at the Federal Reserve, White House, and Congress. She created a widely used and highly accurate recession indicator, the Sahm rule. Sahm is the founder of Stay-at-Home Macro (SAHM) Consulting. Previously, she was a section chief at the Federal Reserve and a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers. Sahm holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan. This podcast covers:

US fiscal policy – did it work, did it cause inflation?
Main causes of inflation
Why no wage-cost inflation?
Sahm rule and recession
Housing and financial market risks
Where is neutral Fed rate
US productivity
Timing of Fed moves
Are US elections influencing Fed? Is Fed political?
Indicators to watch for slowdown
How open is the economics profession?
Books mentioned: The Woman Behind the New Deal: The Life and Legacy of Frances Perkins (Downey)

You can follow Claudia on X and Substack.

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