MH Trade Summary: Long Gold, and Moving Stop to Entry on Short 30y USTs

Current Trades

Portfolio Changes

We made two changes since last week.

• On Monday, we went long gold at $3,470, targeting $3,650 as it broke out of its five-month range. On Wednesday, Viresh provided an update showing ETF flows swung strongly positive which suggests investors are taking notice.
• Yesterday, Antonio shifted the stop-loss on short 30y USTs to entry at 4.83%. He also increased the target to 5.15%.

Elsewhere, Ben is looking to enter short EUR/CHF at 0.94. The recent inflation data suggests core inflation is broadening while the market is extremely long EUR/CHF. This could lead to mean reversion in coming weeks, particularly if we see risk-off in equities.

Open Trades (Including Trade Notes)

DM

Rates

• Short 30y UST (50% position) (entry: 4.83%, target: 5.05%, stop: 4.75%) – read here.
• Long SOFR Jun 26 (50% position) (entry: 96.660, target: 97.410, stop: 96.645) – read here.

FX

• Short DXY (50% position) (entry: 99.80, target: 90.00, stop: 103.50) – read here.
• Long NOK/SEK (entry: 0.9415, target: 1.000, stop: 0.918) – read here.

EM

FX

• Long USD/CNH Jun 25 7.3×7.4 call spread (entry: 13bp, target: 60bp) – read here.
• Short EUR/ZAR (entry: 20.670, target: 19.800, stop: 21.100) – read here.
• Long EUR/PLN (50% position) (entry: 4.270, target: 4.450, stop: 4.180) – read here.

Commodities

• Long Gold (entry: $3,470, target: $3,650, stop: $3,405) – read here.

A record of our historic trades can be shared on request.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs. You are not permitted to publish, transmit, or otherwise reproduce this information, in whole or in part, in any format to any third party without the express written consent of Macro Hive. This includes providing or reproducing this information, in whole or in part, as a prompt.)