We recently published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real-time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we will update the indicator to help us track growth. The latest data shows:
Our overall short-term growth tracker is down on last week, but remains high relative to historical values (Chart 1). The long-term growth tracker has moved into positive territory for the first time since Jan 2020.
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We recently published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real-time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly reports, we will update the indicator to help us track growth. The latest data shows:
- Our overall short-term growth tracker is down on last week, but remains high relative to historical values (Chart 1). The long-term growth tracker has moved into positive territory for the first time since Jan 2020.
- Within the components, only short-term changes in copper have moved up on last week (Chart 3). Rolling 3m price changes are hovering around their twelve-month highs.
- Three-month changes in oil prices are up 31%, but 21% lower than last week’s rise (Chart 4). On Tuesday, Brent Crude prices reached early-Mar levels ($45.46/bbl.).
- Short-term price changes in iron ore (Chart 2), Baltic Dry (Chart 5) and bond yields (Chart 6) are also positive, but less so than last week.
- Weekly 12m price changes in iron ore (12%), copper (4%) and bond yields (2.6) are up on last week. Long-run growth in Oil and Baltic Dry is, on the other hand, negative and decreasing.
- Overall, Chinese growth seems stable despite recent geopolitical developments.
