Hopes for an EU recovery fund and a bounce in PMI data have boosted risk markets. One of our regular writers, Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, has been on this optimistic trend for a while now. In her latest note, she lays out why a V-shaped recovery in the US is more likely than a U-shaped one.
Turning to Big Tech, strategist John Tierney adds a dose of realism to the relentless rally, identifying potential tax and regulatory changes that could stand in the way of continued outperformance in the post-COVID world.
We also feature an article from Natalie Cohen, president of National Municipal Research and publisher of thepublicpurse.com. She highlights three weak links in the US economy, namely; retirement security, infrastructure and climate change and the potential for one of these to boil over.
Away from the US, Caroline Grady delves into the UK balance of payments data, highlighting risks from the changing composition between goods and services and the impact of worsening public finances.
Finally, we update our daily COVID tracker.
This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more.