US rates guru George Goncalves gives his take on what to expect ahead of the FOMC decision later today. His base case is that Powell will give markets enough to keep them waiting as they line things up for major policy moves to be announced in September.
For our academic summary this week Sam van de Schootbrugge reviews a new IMF paper showing that mobility rather than lockdown restrictions themselves drive economic activity, given individuals adjust behaviour ahead of formal restrictions. This has important policy implications as it implies an easing of lockdown measures are unlikely to be sufficient to trigger a return to normal levels of economic activity.
We also update our regular COVID tracker highlighting the ongoing spike in US COVID cases.
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