COVID Macro Risk Scorecard: Global R-Number Falls, As Do Vaccination Rates
- By Sam van de Schootbrugge
- 2 min read
Global Outlook: This week, an average of 36.6mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, down 15% WoW (Chart 1). The decrease comes as cases and the R-number have fallen globally (Chart 2). China still accounts for more than a third of daily doses administered, but on a population-adjusted basis, Malaysia is vaccinating at the fastest pace globally (Chart 5). By continent, Africa has still only vaccinated 4% of its population with at least one dose, while Europe and North America have vaccinated over half of their populations (Chart 3). In all, 30.7% of the world’s population have now received a vaccination dose and an estimated 26.9% have vaccine-induced immunity to Covid-19.
Share of Population Vaccinated: Based on the total number of doses administered, China has vaccinated 84.3% of its population with at least one dose – the highest on our list (Table 1). Singapore has fully vaccinated the largest population share (68.3%), followed by Chile and Denmark. China, Malaysia, New Zealand and Australia have vaccinated the largest population shares on last week.
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In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally.
On the details:
- Global Outlook: This week, an average of 36.6mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, down 15% WoW (Chart 1). The decrease comes as cases and the R-number have fallen globally (Chart 2). China still accounts for more than a third of daily doses administered, but on a population-adjusted basis, Malaysia is vaccinating at the fastest pace globally (Chart 5). By continent, Africa has still only vaccinated 4% of its population with at least one dose, while Europe and North America have vaccinated over half of their populations (Chart 3). In all, 30.7% of the world’s population have now received a vaccination dose and an estimated 26.9% have vaccine-induced immunity to Covid-19.
- Share of Population Vaccinated: Based on the total number of doses administered, China has vaccinated 84.3% of its population with at least one dose – the highest on our list (Table 1). Singapore has fully vaccinated the largest population share (68.3%), followed by Chile and Denmark. China, Malaysia, New Zealand and Australia have vaccinated the largest population shares on last week.
- Doses: This week, daily vaccinations have fallen in the majority of countries. Daily doses in Japan have fallen 31% WoW – the largest drop on our list. Meanwhile, Israel, Thailand and Sweden have expanded rollout efforts. On a population-adjusted basis, Asian countries are now vaccinating at the highest rate globally (Chart 4), while the UK and US have fallen significantly below the world average (Chart 1).
- R-Number: The global R-number, or number of secondary infections produced by a typical case, has dipped on last week (Chart 2). Israel now has the highest R-number, followed by Lithuania and Sweden (Chart 6). However, in the majority of countries, the rate of reproduction is falling. Egypt, the Netherlands, the UK and South Korea have experienced the largest WoW growth.
- Immunity: Chile has the highest level of Covid-19 immunity on our list. The country is 3.3% away from the 80% immunity target. Singapore, Denmark, Canada, the UK and Israel all have >70% immunity. Based on the latest vaccination rates, the majority of countries will reach 80% immunity by the end of the year.
