COVID Macro Risk Scorecard

In our macro scorecard, we pull together all our COVID-related data from cases/deaths to mobility and vaccination rollouts. Our overall score combines these values. The higher the score, the worse the combination.

Vaccination Update (Table 1):

• This week, an average of 33.2mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, down 3% WoW (Chart 1). Overall, a fifth of the world’s population have now received at least one vaccination dose, and an estimated 10.1% have vaccine-induced immunity to Covid-19.
• Brazil was the standout performer this week. Average daily doses more than doubled, reaching 1.2mn a day. Meanwhile, Australia and South Korea vaccinated the largest population shares WoW – 6.9% and 8%, respectively. Also, the US experienced its first WoW rise in daily vaccinations since April (Chart 1).

Cases and Mobility Update:

• Average daily global COVID-19 infections fell a further 6% WoW to 381,500 a day (Chart 2). Cases decreased across most countries, with South Africa, Russia and the UK being notable exceptions. Official global COVID-19 deaths now stand at 3.84mn.
• Average mobility across DM economies continues to rise. Only New Zealand, Australia, Iceland, Portugal and Austria are still less mobile than before the pandemic (Chart 3). Across EM countries, average Apple mobility rose 4% WoW, with India, Turkey and Argentina experiencing large increases.

Macro Risk Scorecard Update (Table 2):

• On the overall macro risk score, the most at risk countries are Malaysia and South Africa, while the least at risk are Israel, the US, Poland and the Czech Republic.
• Malaysia registered the highest overall score this week – that is, it had the worst combination of COVID cases/deaths, mobility and vaccination rollouts. The country is one of the least mobile on our list, and has still only vaccinated 11% of its population with at least one dose. However, cases are down 17% WoW, mobility has risen and daily vaccinations are up.
• South Africa’s risk score is up on last week. Cases and deaths rose 64% and 55% WoW, respectively, and mobility has also fallen. Meanwhile, the country has only vaccinated 1% of its population, meaning it is a high risk of further Covid-19 related disruption (Chart 6).
• The UK’s risk score has turned positive. Cases have risen 38% WoW, but there has been no change in the number of deaths. Mobility has fallen 6% WoW, the largest decline across DM economies, and average daily vaccinations were down 10% WoW.
• Japan is now vaccinating over 1mn people a day. The country has significantly expanded its vaccination rollout in recent weeks and is now set to reach the 80% immunity target by October 2021 (and 32% by the Olympics). Weekly cases have also fallen 27% WoW.
• Cases are rising in Brazil and Colombia. The latter has one of the highest risk scores on our list, as cases and deaths reach the peaks for the pandemic. With the exception of Chile, South American countries have also fallen behind DM economies on the vaccination front.

On market correlations:

• For G10+EM, our overall risk measure is correlating negatively with markets. That is, equities move higher with a better overall risk score. In particular, equities appear to be moving higher in countries with lower cases/deaths and higher Apple mobility. Since January, equities have also moved higher with better vaccination performances (Chart 7).

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)