COVID Macro Risk Scorecard

In our macro scorecard, we pull together all our COVID-related data from cases/deaths to mobility and vaccination rollouts. Our overall score combines these values. The higher the score, the worse the combination.

Vaccination Update (Table 1):

• This week, an average of 34.5mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, up 1% WoW (Chart 1). As a result, 11.8% of the world’s population have now received at least one vaccination dose, and an estimated 9.2% have vaccine-induced immunity to Covid-19.
• Asian countries performed particularly well. Malaysia, Thailand, and India all recorded large WoW percentage increases, and China is vaccinating at the fastest pace globally, even after adjusting for population size. Elsewhere, Argentina and Turkey also experienced large WoW percentage point increases.

Cases and Mobility Update:

• Average daily global COVID-19 infections fell a further 16% WoW to 410,000 a day (Chart 2). Cases in Poland, Switzerland and India fell significantly, while Sweden, the UK and Colombia saw weekly cases rise. Official global COVID-19 deaths now stand at 3.75mn, but actual estimates are closer to 7.1mn.
• Average mobility across DM economies rose 8% WoW. Only New Zealand, Australia, Iceland, Portugal and Austria are still less mobile than before the pandemic (Chart 3). Across EM countries, average Apple mobility rose 4.5% WoW, with India, Argentina and Poland experiencing large increases.

Macro Risk Scorecard Update (Table 2):

• On the overall macro risk score, the most at risk countries are Malaysia and Thailand, while the least at risk are Israel, the US, and Poland.
• Malaysia registered the highest overall score this week – that is, it had the worst combination of COVID cases/deaths, mobility and vaccination rollouts. The country is one of the least mobile on our list, but cases fell 10% WoW. Daily vaccinations increased 74% WoW, but from a low level.
• Most Asian and LatAm countries have positive risk scores. Broadly speaking, they are also the least mobile countries (Chart 3) and are in the bottom 50^th percentile in terms of vaccinations (Chart 6). Some are also recording a high number of weekly cases, but many European countries are still registering more on a per head of population basis.

On market correlations:

• For G10+EM, our overall risk measure is correlating negatively with equity markets. That is, equities move higher with a better overall risk score. In particular, equities appear to be moving higher in countries with lower cases/deaths and higher Apple mobility. Since January, equities have also moved higher with better vaccination performances (Chart 7).

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)