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In our macro scorecard, we pull together all our COVID-related data from cases/deaths to mobility and vaccination rollouts. Our overall score combines these values. The higher the score, the worse the combination.
Vaccination Update (Table 1, Chart 1):
- This week, an average of 28.1mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, up 11% WoW (Chart 1). As a result, 10% of the world’s population have now received at least one vaccination dose, up from 9.1% last week, and an estimated 7.9% have vaccine-induced immunity to Covid-19.
- Driving the global WoW rise are Asian countries. Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia all recorded three-digit WoW percentage increases, and China expanded its rollout by another 2.3mn vaccinations a day. Elsewhere, South Africa and Turkey also experienced large WoW percentage point increases.
Cases and Mobility Update (Charts 2-4):
- Average daily global COVID-19 infections fell a further 20% WoW to 525,000 a day (Chart 2). Cases in India, Poland, Turkey and the US fell significantly, while Malaysia, Taiwan, the UK and Indonesia saw weekly cases rise. Global COVID-19 deaths are down 5% WoW, and total deaths now stand at 3.5mn.
- Average mobility across DM economies rose 4% WoW. Mobility in Greece and France increased most, while Belgium registered a 4% WoW decline (Chart 3). Most DM countries are now as mobile as before the pandemic (Black Line, Chart 3). Across EM countries, average Apple mobility moved sideways. Argentina, Taiwan and Singapore experienced large declines, while Turkey became more mobile.
Macro Risk Scorecard Update (Table 2, Charts 5-6):
- On the overall macro risk score, Singapore, Brazil and Colombia experienced notable WoW deteriorations. Meanwhile, Turkey and Thailand have seen their scores improve. Overall, the most at risk countries are Thailand, India and Malaysia, and the least at risk are the US, New Zealand and Mexico.
- Malaysia and India registered the highest overall scores this week – that is, they had the worst combination of COVID cases/deaths, mobility and vaccination rollouts. In the former, cases rose 50% WoW and mobility dropped 13%. Vaccination efforts rose, but the country is still one of the lowest on our list. India, meanwhile, has vaccinated 11% of its population with at least one dose. Cases fell 23% WoW to 250,000 a day, but daily deaths have moved sideways.
- Cases are rising across LatAm countries – Colombia and Brazil both recorded WoW percentage increases. On vaccinations, the countries recorded a 38% and 21% WoW decline in daily doses, respectively. In Mexico, on the other hand, daily doses have risen 87% on last week, mobility is relatively high, and the country is registering cases in just the 17th percentile.
- Elsewhere, cases and deaths in Japan are down 20% and 14% WoW, respectively. The country has also increased vaccination efforts on last week. In the UK, cases are up 57% WoW amid an outbreak of the Indian variant. Cases in Israel are also up 33% WoW. Average daily vaccination doses in both countries are up WoW. In the US, cases are down by a fifth and vaccinations are down a further 3% WoW.
On market correlations (Chart 7):
- For G10+EM, our overall risk measure is correlating negatively with equity markets. That is, equities move higher with a better overall risk score. In particular, equities appear to be moving higher in countries with lower cases/deaths and higher Apple mobility. Since January, equities have also moved higher with better vaccination performances (Chart 7).
