COVID Macro Risk Scorecard

In our macro scorecard, we pull together all our COVID-related data from cases/deaths to mobility and vaccination rollouts. Our overall score combines these values. The higher the score, the worse the combination.

Vaccination Update (Table 1, Chart 1):

• This week, an average of 24.7mn vaccinations were administered globally every day, up 17% WoW (Chart 1). As a result, 9.1% of the world’s population have now received at least one vaccination dose, up from 8.4% last week, and an estimated 7.3% have vaccine-induced immunity to Covid-19.
• China is the main reason behind the large global WoW rise – daily average doses increased 68% WoW, equivalent to 5mn extra doses a day. The country accounts for more than half of global vaccinations but also ranks fourth on our list in terms of doses per 100k population (884) behind Singapore (2,408), Canada (964) and Greece (884). The UK and EU are administering around 800 doses per 100k a day, while the US has dropped to under 600 (Chart 1).

Cases and Mobility Update (Chart 2-4):

• Average daily global COVID-19 infections fell 14% WoW to 660,000 a day (Chart 2). Cases in India, Germany, Italy and Poland fell significantly, while Argentina, Taiwan, South Africa, and Thailand saw weekly cases rise. Global COVID-19 deaths are down 3% WoW, and total deaths now stand at 3.42mn.
• Average mobility across DM economies rose 5% WoW. Mobility in Greece, Spain and Belgium increased most, while Japan registered a 17% WoW decline (Chart 3). Most DM countries are now as mobile as before the pandemic (Black Line, Chart 3). Across EM countries, Apple mobility rose 2% WoW, with the largest increases in Colombia, Chile and Poland. Mobility in many Asian countries fell (Chart 4).

Macro Risk Scorecard Update (Table 2, Charts 5-7):

• On the overall macro risk score, Japan, Malaysia and the Philippines experienced notable WoW deteriorations. Meanwhile, Poland and Brazil have seen their scores improve. Overall, the most at risk countries are Thailand, India and Malaysia, and the least at risk are the US, UK and Australia.
• Thailand registered the highest overall score again this week – that is, it had the worst combination of COVID cases/deaths, mobility and vaccination rollouts. Cases in the country have risen a further 88% WoW and daily deaths are inching higher. On vaccinations, the country has only vaccinated 2.2% of its population, but average daily doses rose 11% WoW.
• India recorded, on average, 320,000 cases a day over the last week, down 17% WoW. Daily deaths averaged 4,100 a day, up 4%, and mobility fell a further 4% WoW. Globally, the country ranks in the bottom 50^th percentile on the vaccination front and in the top 50^th percentile in terms of weekly population-adjusted cases. Switzerland, Greece, Argentina, Turkey, Brazil, Colombia, Malaysia and Iran are similarly positioned, making them all susceptible to worsening Covid-19 conditions (Charts 6 & 7).
• Elsewhere, cases and deaths in Japan are up 4% and 26% WoW, respectively. The country has, however, increased daily average vaccination doses by 57% WoW. The UK is now as mobile as it was pre-pandemic, but workplace mobility remains some way away from returning to normal (Chart 5). The country has increased average daily doses by 13% WoW. Brazil has also ramped up its vaccination rollout on last week. Mexico and Brazil now have negative risk scores.

On market correlations (Chart 8 & 9):

• For G10+EM, our overall risk measure is correlating negatively with equity markets. That is, equities move higher with a better overall risk score. In particular, equities appear to be moving higher in countries with lower cases and higher Apple mobility. Since January, equities have also moved higher with better vaccination performances (Chart 8). Meanwhile, there is less of a correlation between vaccinations and FX performance (Chart 9).

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)