COVID Macro Risk Scorecard

• In our macro scorecard, we pull together all our COVID-related data from cases/deaths to mobility and vaccination rollouts. Our overall score combines these values. The higher the score, the worse the combination.

Vaccination Update^[1] (Table 1, Chart 1):

• This week, the number of daily vaccinations administered globally averaged over 7mn for the first time (Chart 1). As a result, 2.4% of the world’s population have now received at least one vaccination dose, up from 2.0% last week (Table 1). Across countries who have already vaccinated more than 1% of their population, Hungary, Singapore and Argentina experienced the largest WoW increases. The UK and Chile are forecast to vaccinate 80% of their populations with at least one dose by June.

Cases and Mobility Update (Chart 2-4):

• On cases, weekly global COVID-19 infections rose 2% WoW to 1.9mn (Chart 2). A number of European countries, such as Italy, Greece, Norway, Poland, Hungary and Austria, experienced double-digit WoW percentage increases in infections. Meanwhile, deaths have fallen for another week – total deaths now stand at 2.62mn.
• Average mobility across DM economies moved sideways on last week. New Zealand, Italy and the Netherlands experienced WoW declines, while the US, Greece and Portugal became more mobile. Average mobility in Europe has now converged on average mobility across Asia and the Americas (Chart 4). Mobility rose across EM countries, with Turkey, South Africa and Malaysia seeing the largest rises.

Macro Risk Scorecard Update (Table 2, Charts 5 & 6):

• On the overall macro risk score, the largest WoW increases were in Brazil and Sweden. The countries whose macro risk score has improved most are: Chile, Malaysia and the Czech Republic.
• Hungary registered the highest overall score – that is, they had the worst combination of COVID cases/deaths, mobility and vaccination rollouts. This is because cases and deaths are up over 30% WoW, and mobility remains relatively low. However, the country administered at least one dose to over 3% of its population with last week, a 45% WoW rise.
• Brazil places second on the list and experienced the largest WoW rise in the overall risk score. Driving the change is the 22% and 25% WoW rise in cases and deaths, respectively. The country has also not yet vaccinated a large share of its population, placing 21^st on our table. At its current pace, Brazil will not have immunised 80% of its population by 1 Jan 2023.
• Many European countries are seeing cases rise. Italy and Germany experienced 18% and 3% WoW increases in weekly infections, respectively (Chart 5). Despite this, the EUR score remains low because infections and deaths are low relative to previous peaks, and mobility is rising (Chart 4). In terms of vaccinations, 80% of Europe’s population is forecast to have had at least one dose by April 2022.
• The UK and US have negative risk scores, predominantly driven by falling cases and deaths (Chart 6), and relatively good vaccination performances. The US also has a relatively high level of mobility. On vaccinations, the US is following a two-dose strategy and has therefore only administered at least one dose to 18% of its population, significantly less than the UK. Despite this, the US is forecast to reach the 80% target just two months after the UK, in part due to a rise in the pace of vaccination rollouts over the last week (Chart 1).

On market correlations (Chart 7):

• For G10+EM, our overall risk measure is correlating negatively with equity markets. That is, equities move lower with a worse overall risk score. In particular, equities appear to be moving lower when Covid cases are higher. This is also the case for EM countries only.
• Tracking equity and vaccination performance for a larger set of countries and over a longer period of time, there does appear to be a positive correlation between vaccination and equity performance (Chart 7).

1. We have changed the way we track vaccination rollouts. Previously, we looked at the number of doses administered per 100 people and presented it as a share of the population. The problem with this measure is that it counts two-dose vaccination protocols as two single doses, e.g. Israel has administered 103.2 doses per 100 people, 45.5 have received two doses, and 12.2 have received a single dose. In future, we shall use the share of people who have received at least one dose (e.g. 45.5+12.2 in above example). ↑

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)