By Bilal Hafeez 13-06-2019
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US RECESSION WATCH: Three good articles.  One is an excellent summary of opinions on whether an inverted yield curve signals a coming recession. Another called how to spot a recession uses an unemployment signal to arrive at a 10% probability of recession next year. Finally, in this time might not be different argues that three factors that precede recessions are already in place (inverted yield curve, full employment, and long expansion).

U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2018 I didn’t realise this, but the prime working age population is now increasing. In terms of cohorts, in 2010, the largest age grouping was 45-49 years old, while today it is 25 to 29 years old. This should be positive for US economic growth and housing.

S&P 500 Earnings – Which Sector’s Growth Rates Have Seen Less Downward Pressure for Q2 ’19 S&P500 companies’ earnings growth is expected to be 12% in 2020 and that forecast hasn’t changed for over four months despite the escalation in the US-China trade war. The sectors which have had the most resilient growth expectations have been energy, financials, healthcare, communications, and utilities.

Here’s Mary Meeker’s 2019 Internet Trends report Contains a link to her 333-page slide-deck. She highlights slowing growth in e-commerce sales, increased internet ad spending, the rise of freemium subscription business models, telemedicine, photo-sharing, and interactive gaming.

Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions: A Cross-Country Study NY Fed paper finds loose financial conditions forecast high output growth and low output volatility up to six quarters into the future