Views & Analysissee more…

  1. EGB Issuance: Rising Supply of Bund Duration into H2

    Henry Occleston

    EGB issuance is rising, with the duration of supply that the market will need to digest elevated following QE’s end.

  2. Why Is the High Yield Market Not Blowing Up?

    John Tierney

    Many investors seem mystified that high yield credit spreads have not widened more given the steep bear equity market.

  3. Supportive Rebalancing Flows for US Equities

    Henry Occleston

    Large real-money investors often target particular asset ratios (e.g., bonds/equities). Large differences in relative asset performance may necessitate a rebalancing.

  1. Charts of the Week: Growling Bears

    Matthew Tibble

    Italy is in (a lot of) debt. GOOG and META come tumbling down. Bearish sentiment prevails in the US. We are panicking post-Covid.

  2. Turning Bearish on the Won 

    Caroline Grady

    We turn bearish on the won. This year’s C/A surplus is set to be the smallest in over a decade, while equity outflows (both domestic and foreign) remain elevated.

  3. Four Reasons Italy’s Huge Debt Is Not an Issue, Yet

    Henry Occleston

    BTP yields are trading near heights last seen in 2014, even after recent rallies. With public debt/GDP above 150%, the interest burden is making headlines again.

FOMC Review: Fed Remains Behind the Curve

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

The Fed hiked the FFR 75bp as expected. The SEP still shows the Fed still expects most disinflation to come from factors outside monetary policy.

Charts of the Week: Clogged Ports, Open Skies

Matthew Tibble

China’s ports remain clogged. Hedge funds are bearish equities. Sticky housing inflation impedes CPI reductions. We are back to the skies.

  1. BoE Preview: 25bp Hike With a Risk of Hawkish Skew

    Henry Occleston

    My base case is for the MPC to hike the bank rate by 25bps to 1.25%. Hawkish dissent seems likely, and while the risk of a 50bp hike is low, it is not zero.

  2. FOMC Preview: The Fed Has Traded Guidance Credibility for Inflation Credibility

    Jon Turek

    The Fed will hike 75bp and guide to 75bp in July as well. It will raise the terminal rate for this cycle to 4%.

  3. ECB Review: Signs to Look For in ECB Hiking Path

    Henry Occleston

    As expected, the ECB skewed hawkish into their outlook, laying out the potential path for a 50bp hike in September, and consistent hikes thereafter.

FOMC Preview: Fed to Follow Market

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

The Fed will be on autopilot this week with a 50bp hike and the start of QT. The SEP will probably show somewhat higher inflation and a higher FFR trajectory...

End-2022 PCE to Exceed Fed Forecast  

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Because of a structural increase in the demand for durables, goods price inflation is likely to remain elevated for the next few years. Services price inflation will probably keep accelerating...

  1. US CPI – Your Trading Guide

    Bilal Hafeez

    CPI days tend to see the same daily ranges in key markets than non-CPI days. But large CPI surprises see 50%-60% larger ranges. A 0.1%+ higher/positive surprise in headline inflation sees USD/JPY jump 0.3%.

  2. Beige Book Sentiment: Turning Point?

    Dalvir Mandara

    We use machine learning to convert the Fed’s text-heavy Beige Book into a sentiment score. The latest Beige Book report released on 1 June has shown another increase in sentiment.

  3. Charts of the Week: Stuff, Not Services

    Matthew Tibble

    The pandemic has triggered a long-term change in consumption patterns towards a greater share of durables.

ECB Preview: Hawkish Surprise a Risk

Henry Occleston

ECB doves have now rallied around President Christine Lagarde’s push for ending negative rates by the end of Q3.

May 2022 NFP: Another Upside Surprise

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

May NFP were up 390,000, against a revised 436,000 in March and 318,000 expected.

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