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US Recession Modelsee more…

  1. US Treasury Yields Plummet Amid Global Banking System Health Worries

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    Banks went to unprecedented lengths to secure emergency liquidity. US banks borrowed a record $152.9bn from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) discount window for the week ended 15 March...

  2. US Treasury Yields Tumble on SVB Collapse

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    Yields tumbled as Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed. The collapse of SVB triggered a wave of risk aversion among investors, causing US Treasury yields to tumble. 

  3. Recession Odds at 92% Ahead of Powell Speeches

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    US treasury yields inched higher over the past week with Friday’s US Services PMI surprising to the upside through February.

  1. Recession Odds Rise After Hot PCE Print

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    US treasury yields moved sideways for most of the past week. Then, on Friday, US PCE (headline: +0.6% MoM vs +0.5% MoM exp.; core: +0.6% MoM vs +0.4% MoM exp.) proved hotter-than-expected, accelerating across most categories of goods and services.

  2. 90% Recession Probability Holds Firm Amid Inflation Data

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    US treasury yields headed higher throughout last week after various inflation-related data prints showed no signs of impending disinflation.

  3. Recession Probability Back at 90%

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    US treasury yields climbed throughout last week after hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers. Chair Powell indicated that the terminal federal funds rate (FFR) may have to rise if growth and inflation remain strong.

Yield Curve Inversion Intensifies After US NFP Surprise

Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked 25bps at the policy meeting on Wednesday last week – yields mostly fell after the news.

US Recession Probability Remains High

Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

US Treasury yields rose on Friday despite the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, PCE, rising +4.4% YoY for December compared to +4.7% YoY for November.

  1. Fed Speakers Optimistic on Inflation, Recession Probability Remains High

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    US Treasury yields rose on Friday as investors digested comments from several Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers and their implications for the next Fed rate hike on 1 February.

  2. Recession Probability Stays Close to 90% After Treasury Yields Dip on CPI Data

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    US CPI rose +6.5% YoY in December – its smallest rise since October 2021. Slowing inflation dragged US treasury yields lower with US 10Y yields hitting levels last seen in December 2022 while US 2Y yields hit their lowest level since October 2022.

  3. Treasury Yields Fall, Recession Probability Remains High

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    Treasury yields dipped on Friday as investors analysed key economic data and considered the possible impact on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plans for raising interest rates.

US Recession Probability Stays Elevated as Yields Dip

Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

The Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a 50bp hike on Wednesday, as expected. A hawkish presser followed.

US Recession Probability Exceeds 90%

Dalvir Mandara

US treasury yields closed the week higher after November’s PPI (up 0.3% for the month) showed an increase in wholesale prices.

  1. US Recession Probability Shows No Signs of Abating

    Bilal Hafeez and Dalvir Mandara

    The probability of a recession within the next twelve months stayed close to 90% after hot US jobs data.

  2. Recession Probability Stays Close To 90%

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    The probability of a recession within the next twelve months stayed close to 90% despite a dovish twist from the November FOMC meeting minutes.

  3. Recession Probability Closing in on 90%

    Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

    The probability of a recession within the next twelve months approaches 90% as the 2s10s inverts to levels last seen in the 1980s.

Recession Probability Remains Above 80% After October CPI Data

Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

The probability of a recession within the next twelve months stays above 80% after October CPI came in lower than expected.

Recession Probability Rises to Four-Decade High

Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez

The probability of a recession within the next twelve months hit levels last seen in the 1980s after the Federal Reserve delivered a fourth straight 75bp rate hike.

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