Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
The Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked by 25bps on Wednesday, in line with consensus, largely due to signs that the Fed measures to stabilise the banking system were working
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
Banks went to unprecedented lengths to secure emergency liquidity. US banks borrowed a record $152.9bn from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) discount window for the week ended 15 March...
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
Yields tumbled as Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed. The collapse of SVB triggered a wave of risk aversion among investors, causing US Treasury yields to tumble.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
US treasury yields inched higher over the past week with Friday’s US Services PMI surprising to the upside through February.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
US treasury yields moved sideways for most of the past week. Then, on Friday, US PCE (headline: +0.6% MoM vs +0.5% MoM exp.; core: +0.6% MoM vs +0.4% MoM exp.) proved hotter-than-expected, accelerating across most categories of goods and services.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
US treasury yields headed higher throughout last week after various inflation-related data prints showed no signs of impending disinflation.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
US treasury yields climbed throughout last week after hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers. Chair Powell indicated that the terminal federal funds rate (FFR) may have to rise if growth and inflation remain strong.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked 25bps at the policy meeting on Wednesday last week – yields mostly fell after the news.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
US Treasury yields rose on Friday despite the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, PCE, rising +4.4% YoY for December compared to +4.7% YoY for November.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
US Treasury yields rose on Friday as investors digested comments from several Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers and their implications for the next Fed rate hike on 1 February.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
US CPI rose +6.5% YoY in December – its smallest rise since October 2021. Slowing inflation dragged US treasury yields lower with US 10Y yields hitting levels last seen in December 2022 while US 2Y yields hit their lowest level since October 2022.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
Treasury yields dipped on Friday as investors analysed key economic data and considered the possible impact on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plans for raising interest rates.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
The Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a 50bp hike on Wednesday, as expected. A hawkish presser followed.
Dalvir Mandara
US treasury yields closed the week higher after November’s PPI (up 0.3% for the month) showed an increase in wholesale prices.
Bilal Hafeez and Dalvir Mandara
The probability of a recession within the next twelve months stayed close to 90% after hot US jobs data.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
The probability of a recession within the next twelve months stayed close to 90% despite a dovish twist from the November FOMC meeting minutes.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
The probability of a recession within the next twelve months approaches 90% as the 2s10s inverts to levels last seen in the 1980s.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
The probability of a recession within the next twelve months stays above 80% after October CPI came in lower than expected.
Dalvir Mandara and Bilal Hafeez
The probability of a recession within the next twelve months hit levels last seen in the 1980s after the Federal Reserve delivered a fourth straight 75bp rate hike.
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