05 March 2021

Trade Ideas Survey

Bilal Hafeez Bilal Hafeez

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Bilal’s Trades:

On my side, I have rotated out of short USD/TRY into short CHF/TRY. I expect the lira to perform well, but it has been quite sensitive to higher US rates. There is also a chance the CBRT will hike on 18 March.
I also entered a short EUR/CAD trade. While USD/CAD has been trending lower, EUR/CAD has yet to reach to its pre-COVID levels of 1.45 (currently 1.52). Both oil and rate differentials suggest it could get there.
Otherwise, I continue to maintain a core short dollar position vs EUR and CNH and long EM FX (INR). I also hold a bullish GBP cross view – short EUR/GBP.
In Equities, I am long S&P500, DAX, NKY. For now, I’m viewing the equity volatility as temporary.
On rates, I have a short US 10y rates position, which I still believe has some scope to move higher.
Lastly, I am long oil.

Macro Hive Network:

This week, we saw some bullish dollar and US equity positions. Lot of the discussions were around Powell’s speech yesterday and the Feds options to stabilise higher yields.

Overall, the largest short is still the EUR, and largest longs are in precious metals. Here are the details:

We had 2 participants add long dollar positions this week. One went short EUR/USD and sees further downside on the euro to 1.1930 level. The participant also went long USD/JPY on rising US yields.
Another has added a tactical long USD/CNY because interest rate differentials have been narrowing. This participant also holds a short EUR/USD position.

Equity/Rates

Two participants added long equity positions. One went long Nasdaq equity futures and another went long IWM ETF (Russell) on bond yields coming down.
One participant bought puts on US IG Index ETF (LQD).

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Manan is a macro researcher with 8 years of experience on the sell-side including Nomura & J.P Morgan. At Nomura, he specialised in scenario analysis for G10 and major EM economies.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)

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Bilal’s Trades:

Macro Hive Network:

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Manan is a macro researcher with 8 years of experience on the sell-side including Nomura & J.P Morgan. At Nomura, he specialised in scenario analysis for G10 and major EM economies.

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Trade Ideas Survey

Bilal’s Trades:

Macro Hive Network:

Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.

Manan is a macro researcher with 8 years of experience on the sell-side including Nomura & J.P Morgan. At Nomura, he specialised in scenario analysis for G10 and major EM economies.

Enter your email to read this Macro Hive Exclusive

Your comments

Cancel reply

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

Like these insights? Join our free newsletter for regular updates and trade ideas.

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