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- On my side,
- I’ve re-added a short USD/CNH trade to my short dollar basket, so short USD vs EUR, JPY, CNH. The China FX basket is trading weak, so the Chinese can afford a lower USD/CNH to ensure trade talks stay positive.
- I’m concerned about EM FX with the TRY blow-up, so I’m exiting my INR/TWD carry and entering short INR and ZAR (vs USD).
- Otherwise, I’m holding long gold on low real yields, long SPX on tech and earnings recovery and US 10s30s steepener on US fiscal risk.
- Elsewhere in our survey, new trades include a short USD/JPY trade as a safe-haven trade, a S&P downside option trade and long Silver options trade.
- In terms of trades exited, a short euro and a short S&P trade were exited.
- Overall, the most popular trades are long gold and JPY and short USD and EUR. Equity views are mixed with a bias for US underperformance and Euro-area outperformance.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Manan is a macro researcher with 8 years of experience on the sell-side including Nomura & J.P Morgan. At Nomura, he specialised in scenario analysis for G10 and major EM economies.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)