Liang Ding
Summary August data shows broad-based weakening of domestic demand. The acceleration of government borrowing and supporting measures for the housing market and private consumption are yet to show a positive effect on sentiment and spending. Increasing high-tech production failed to offset the decline in traditional sectors. The supply-side data indicates 4.9% YTD GDP growth, down […]
Viresh Kanabar, Ben Ford
Summary Core and services inflation rose to 3.6% YoY and 5.6% in August. And while core now sits above BoE forecasts (3.4%), services inflation remains below. Meanwhile, wage growth is decelerating too slowly to force the BoE into a September rate cut. Assuming the BoE maintains a monthly pace of £100bn for balance sheet reduction, […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Today’s Fed meeting is one of the most uncertain in years. It will be the first cut in an easing cycle, and markets are almost split between a 25bp (40% chance) and 50bp cut (60% chance). We therefore lay out possible scenarios for the Fed meeting and likely market reactions. We look at four […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Vice President Kamala Harris’ nationwide popularity is increasing but she is still within the margin of error in the swing states. The Democrats still appear likely to lose the Senate while the House could be in play. Market Implications I expect the Fed to cut 50bp this week, 100bp this year and 150bp next […]
Mirza Baig, Liang Ding
Summary We revised our forecast for aggregated demand growth in August from 6.4% to 4.4% with the updated car sales data. Despite the upgraded trade-in program for the cars, car sales in August increased only 0.4% on a YoY base. Construction activities stayed weak in September with cement production down 1% on a YoY base. […]
Caroline Grady
Summary Fiscal loosening ahead of the 2026 general election would raise Hungary’s already-elevated deficit and debt levels. Combined with indications that Varga, or possibly Nagy, will become the next NBH governor, this points to looser fiscal and monetary policy ahead. While possibly boosting growth in the short term, it will not fix the weak investment […]
Bilal Hafeez
A clear consensus has emerged. The failings of China’s second-largest real estate developer, Evergrande Group, and other broader...
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
August core CPI slowed to 10bp MoM from 33bp in July, against a 30bp consensus expectation and my 20bp expectation (Chart 1)...
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Germany and Japan will hold lower house general elections on 26 September and before 28 November, respectively. Whatever the results...
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
During April-July, the bond stock correlation turned positive. This is unusual: since the late 1990s, it has generally been negative (Chart 1). I believe...
Bilal Hafeez
US 10y yields have been struggling to break out of the 1.60 to 1.70 range since late March. Even last week’s strong ISM and...
Bilal Hafeez
I always get a bit nervous when I get asked what the performance of our trades have been. There’s more that...
Bilal Hafeez, James Leitner
The Chinese yuan (CNY) has been one of the best performing currencies in 2020. Yet, many continue to use the CNY...
Bilal Hafeez
This week we had a lively debate on why oil bears are returning, whether the USD is an effective hedge for contested elections...
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