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Specials

Central banks Need Engineers Not Economists! (3 min read)

By Gary Licht | September 18, 2019

Own goals from the ECB and FED this past week highlight yet another secular trend in the current paradigm shift: the rise of the engineer and the fall of the economist. While both deploy a mathematical toolkit, economists are ideologues

FOMC Preview: Easing for Markets Helps a Levered Economy (5 min read)

By George Goncalves | September 18, 2019

Since the July Fed rate cut of 25bps and the conclusion of its balance sheet roll-off (known as quantitative tightening, or QT for short), there have been many major markets moves. These include a massive duration rally and then a

Three Thoughts On The Oil Spike (2 min read)

By Bilal Hafeez | September 17, 2019

Oil prices have jumped significantly since the drone attack on Saudi oil facilities. But markets are so far taking a sanguine view of the moves and appear to be pricing the spike as temporary. Here are three other points to

Deep Dives

The Post-Globalisation Economic Model (4 min read)

September 11, 2019

  Dani Rodrick. Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2018), 336pp. Reviewed by Bilal Hafeez.   The Post-Globalisation Economic Model Harvard economist

Factor Premia: The Best Long-Term Investment Strategy? (5 min read)

September 11, 2019

The holy grail of financial market investing is to find investment or trading rules that consistently make money over time. And while no one has found a rule that always

Gamma, Gamma, Gamma: A Move after Midnight (6 min read)

September 11, 2019

Thorsten Roland Wegener spent twenty years trading equity derivatives and was a partner at Bear Stearns. Currently, he teaches as well as cooking, driving, and cleaning lots. His biggest professional

Best of the Web

Currency Wars and the Fall of Empires (Coppola Comment, 6 min read)

August 29, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) This in-depth piece by Frances Coppola, financial writer, explores and criticises James Rickards’ book Currency Wars. The book takes a largely American perspective, reviewing fiat currency over the last century. Coppola believes Rickard

Economists are Bad at Predicting Recessions (FiveThirtyEight, 4 min read)

August 29, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Senior writer Amelia Thomson-Deveaux explores evidence from a recent study by Loungani et al. who looked at 153 recessions in 63 countries between 1992 and 2014 and found that the majority were

Dollars and Sense: The Sterling Depreciation and UK Price Competitiveness (Vox EU, 4 min read)

August 29, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) The large depreciation of the sterling by 12% following the Brexit referendum of 2016 yet to revert. This article discusses research from Giancarlo Corsetti, a Professor of Macroeconomics at Cambridge, which looks

Podcasts

 “A Brief History of Doom: Two Hundred Years of Financial Crises” (New Books in Economics, 37 min listen)

July 9, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Over the past 200 years, the top 6 countries in the World (accounting for 50% of World GDP) have endured 43 crises. In his new book, Richard Vague shows that they

“How China Escaped the Poverty Trap” (New Books in Economics, 41 min listen)

July 8, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Conventional economic development theory gets stuck in circular reasoning: good institutions generate economic development, but economic development is necessary to generate good institutions. In this podcast, Dr Yuen Yuen Ang from

Nobel Perspectives: Can people be nudged into better behaviour? (Monocle 24: The Bulletin with UBS, 15 min listen)

July 2, 2019

(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) First some background on the history of behavioural economics. Then Nobel Prize winning behavioural economists Richard Thaler and Daniel Kahneman talk about how framing and transparency can be used to ‘nudge’

China Digest from the Web

How Exposed are U.S. Investors to China? (Seafarer Funds, 5 min read)

August 29, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Nicholas Borst, Director of China Research at Seafarer, de-mystifies the actual positions that US investors hold in the Chinese capital markets. ‘Foreign Direct Investments’ (FDIs) into China have nearly doubled since March

China’s Hong Kong Dilemma (The New Yorker, 3 min read)

August 29, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) The protests and conflicts in Hong Kong have been escalating since they began in June. Being unable to find a mutually satisfying solution could have disastrous consequences for the Beijing government both

Flailing at China (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

August 29, 2019

(You can read the article by clicking here) Professor Stephen Roach discusses how changes in China’s economic policies shaped his course, ‘The Next China’, at Yale University. To address the ‘Four UNs’ (unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable) that may undermine

Investor Positioning

August 20, 2019

Forecasts: US 10y Yields

August 20, 2019

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