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Specials
As the Fed capitulates on its hiking cycle, it joins other central banks like the ECB and BoJ in dovish territory. On top of that, the pessimism surrounding the US-China trade war seems to have hit its peak – at
Last weekend saw the UK’s hottest day of the year, and there is a chance that the coming summer could even see new records being broken. As a Londoner, this sounds quite appealing – no need to go on holiday.
The big problem for the Euro-area is that it is geared primarily to international trade. And in a world of escalating trade war rhetoric, this means it will always lose out. To put this into context, if we look at
Best of the Web
(You can read the article by clicking here) The Trump tax reform was considered to be the formula that would allow the US to claim back trillions of dollars of trapped profits and make America a more manufacturing-competitive landscape. But
(You can read the article by clicking here) While trend GDP growth in the US averaged 3.3% from 1950 to 2016, it has dropped to 1.7% since the 2000s. This article explores whether specific sectors are to blame. The authors
(You can read the article by clicking here) The analysis finds that dissatisfaction with democracy is not related to a nation’s overall level of wealth and development. Rather, it is correlated with economic outlooks – the greater the economic pessimism,
China Digest from the Web
Revised Demographic Forecasts for China: Key Takeaways (The Economist Intelligence Unit, 5 min read)
(You can read the article by clicking here) Using the most comprehensive, once-a-decade national census of Chinese population in combination with periodic mini-census studies, the Economist provides a neat update on demographic changes in China. After a relaxation of the
(You can read the article by clicking here) Beijing is concerned about the future Europe-China relationship after the surprise selection of von der Leyen to head the European Commission. She has clearly expressed a belief that China poses multiple threats
(You can read the article by clicking here) China has been lending a lot more in international markets than official numbers record. New estimates suggest that China’s lending to the rest of the world reached $5tn in 2018, a tenfold
Podcasts
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) TINA, or ‘There Is No Alternative’, to lower rates is the theme of the day. Bloomberg senior market editor, John Authers, wants a renewed focus on Shiller’s CAPE measure of equity
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) Nomura has developed an early warning indicator of currency crises called Damocles. It tracks thirty emerging markets and in part back-test, part live performance has signalled two-thirds of the last 54
(You can listen to the podcast by clicking here) US Attorney General William Barr has the final say in whether or not the Antitrust Division takes actions against the likes of Google or Apple. This podcast explores how Barr’s past
Freshly Squeezed Working Papers
In recent years the availability of new alternative datasets for financial markets has expanded enormously, potentially giving investors an informational edge. These can range from consumer transaction data to satellite
Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: What Explains Corporate Bond Returns? AQR paper finds finds that options markets explain a great deal of credit returns. Two features of corporate bonds
The Risk of Returning to the Zero Lower Bound San Fran Fed writes “that there currently appears to be a low risk of the economy returning to the zero lower bound
