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Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Not a day goes by without a new LLM model hitting the market, each claiming to outperform the rest on some benchmark leaderboard. But these self-reported scores often deserve scepticism. Much like marking your own homework, these evaluations can be misleading. For starters, many benchmark datasets – or even their answers – might appear in […]
Summary Inference-time scaling is the New Frontier: AI progress is shifting to focus more on inference-time scaling techniques that refine responses after initial training. Deeper Reasoning, Longer Waits: Enabling models to break complex tasks into smaller steps during inference results in longer waiting times but better responses. Better Cost-Outcome Alignment: This approach better aligns cost […]
Assessing and Alleviating State Anxiety in LLMs: Finds that trauma prompts can change the ‘state’ anxiety of LLMs, while relaxation ones reduce anxiety! Structured Outputs Enable General-Purpose LLMs to Be Medical Experts: The paper does away with fine-tuning an LLM on medical data and instead introduces a seven-step cognitive process (chain-of-thought) to answer questions. E.g., […]
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary A 2025 recession is likely due to the extraordinary increase in tariffs and policy uncertainty, with the pause in tariffs implementation likely to move the onset to Q2 from Q1. The recession is likely to last about three quarters with unemployment increasing by about 2.5ppts. I expect the Fed to cut as the recession […]
Richard Jones
Summary USD/CAD is down for the sixth successive week, and for the eighth week in ten. The pair printed a new YTD low this week, where it currently trades. USD/CAD is approaching its 200-day moving average (DMA), very near 1.4000. Market Implications We think the 200-DMA should robustly support USD/CAD and with an RSI approaching […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Retail Sales – Wednesday. Consensus expects a big jump in the headline number to 1.4% MoM from 0.2% in February, but this is likely to reflect tariff frontrunning rather than underlying demand strength. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: UK labour market – […]
Keyu Jin is a Professor of Economics at the LSE. She is an academic member of the China Finance 40 Group and has worked with the World Bank, the IMF, and the China Banking Regulatory Commission, and is a non-executive board member of the luxury conglomerate Richemont and Jardine Matheson.
Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and ‘Seriously, Marvin?!’ Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously, Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin does not have time to research at Thematic Markets.
Tom Montag is the founding Chief Executive Officer of Rubicon Carbon. Tom has over 20 years of experience in financial markets.
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