BILAL'S TOP PICKS
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Markets & Investing
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Monetary Policy & Inflation
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Fiscal Policy & Inequality
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Growth & Labour Market
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Politics
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Data, Models & Market Plumbing
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China
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ESG & Climate Change
Notes on technology in the 2020s (Eli Dourado, 8 min read)
Why Markets Boomed in a Year of Human Misery (NYT, 4 min read)
Review of 2020: Chaos on a Roll (Risk.net, 6 min read)
Rise Up: Vaccines Brought Broader Market Participation (Charles Schwab, 6 min read)
Bull or Bear in 2021? (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
It’s the index, stupid! Our New Not-So-Neutral Financial Market Arbiters (Notes on the Crises, 12 min read)
5 key metrics signal Ethereum price is ready to make a new 2020 high (CoinTelegraph, 3 min read)
It’s the most wonder-bull time of the year (Variant Perception, 2 min read)
Jeremy Siegel: 2021 will be a Bull Market for Stocks (Advisor Perspectives, 10 min read)
“High” Yield yields hit a low (M&G Investments, 6 min read)
Here Are The Blockchain Networks Most Popular With Capital Markets Players (CB Insights, 3 min read)
Fintech and big tech credit markets around the world (Vox EU, 8 min read)
Jumping into the pool: How to earn a profit mining Bitcoin and Ether (Cointelegraph, 6 min read)
Crypto Long & Short: 4 Metrics That Show How the Current Bitcoin Rally Is Different From 2017 (Coindesk, 5 min read)
Flipping tech: four risks to the sector (LGIM, 3 min read)
Engines of global growth keep recovery on track (Variant Perception, 3 min read)
Anonymous Trading in Equities (Journal of Finance, 40 page read)
Unconventional Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets and Frontier Countries (IMF, 39 page read)
Insolvency and debt overhang following the COVID-19 outbreak: Assessment of risks and policy responses (OECD, 26 page read)
A Race Between Vaccines and the Virus as Recoveries Diverge (IMF, 7 min read)
Expect inflation and strong second-half recovery (OMFIF, 2 min read)
Shariah-Compliant Crypto Exchange Wins License From Bahrain Central Bank (Coindesk, 1 min read)
Beware rising neutral rates (OMFIF, 3 min read)
How competitive are UK insurance markets? (Bank Underground, 5 min read)
Why rising public debt won’t drive countries into difficulties (OMFIF, 2 min read)
What’s behind the recent surge in the M1 money supply? (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 6 min read)
‘Leaning against the wind’ and the risk of financial crises (VoxEU, 5 min read)
The globalisation of inflation in the European emerging countries (BIS, 18 page read)
Recessions and Mortality: A Global Perspective (BIS, 32 page read)
When Inequality is High, Pandemics Can Fuel Social Unrest (IMF Blog, 2 min read)
Inflation Was Sooo 1970s! Will It Roar Back in the 2020s? (Dr Ed’s Blog, 8 min read)
‘Low for Long’ and Risk-Taking (IMF, 22 page read)
Stablecoins: Potential, Risks and Regulation (BIS, 23 page read)
Monetizing Privacy with Central Bank Digital Currencies (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read)
Fintech in Europe: Promises and Threats (IMF, 28 pages)
Sudden Stops and Optimal Foreign Exchange Intervention (NBER, 42 pages)
An Early Stablecoin? The Bank of Amsterdam and the Governance of Money (BIS, 36 page read)
Beyond the Election: What Doesn’t Change Will Be a Lot More Than What Does (Bridgewater Associates, 6 min read)
COVID-19 and Global Income Inequality (NBER, 14 page read)
England’s Lockdown Lessons (Project Syndicate, 6 min read)
Policy responses to the corporate solvency problem in the ongoing Covid-19 crisis (VoxEU, 8 min read)
US Institutions After Trump (Project Syndicate, 8 min read)
Sovereign Debt Standstills (NBER, 16 page read)
Remittances and COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries (Federal Reserve, 8 min read)
Do Enlarged Fiscal Deficits Cause Inflation: The Historical Record (NBER, 34 page read)
Assessing The Fiscal Implications Of Banking Crises (BIS, 17 page read)
Fiscal Policy for an Unprecedented Crisis (IMF Blog, 3 min read)
Pandemics and inequality: A historical overview (Vox EU, 7 min read)
Biden’s business tax plan: More complexity, questionable effect (PIIE, 8 min read)
Elephant who lost its trunk: Continued growth in Asia, but the slowdown in top 1% growth after the financial crisis (Vox EU, 8 min read)
Big budget spending isn’t new: it’s a return to what worked before (The Conversation,5 min read)
War, Socialism and the Rise of Fascism: An Empirical Exploration (NBER, 30 page read)
Text-based recession probabilities (ECB, 24 page read)
Beyond Brexit: Outlook and Risks for the U.K. Economy (PIMCO, 4 min read)
The Remarkable Growth in Financial Economics, 1974-2020 (NBER, 32 page read)
2021 US outlook: The recovery takes hold (Invesco, 4 min read)
A Tale of Two Economies (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
How a Collective Infrastructure Push Will Boost Global Growth (IMF, 2 min read)
Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning (FEDS, 21 page read)
A Proposal for an Auction-Based Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (VoxEU, 4 min read)
The Impact of Natural Disasters on the Corporate Loan Market (Liberty Street Economics, 5 min read)
How might the autumn lockdown affect different sectors of the economy? (Economics Observatory, 4 min read)
Crouching Beliefs, Hidden Biases: The Rise and Fall of Growth Narratives (IMF, 25 page read)
Engines Not Yet in Sync: A Multispeed Recovery in Asia (IMF Blog, 4 min read)
Post COVID-19 Exit Strategies and Emerging Markets Economic Challenges (NBER, 20 page read)
The Coronavirus Vaccine Fail and International Elites (CEPR, 7 min read)
Where Biden Should Be More Like Trump (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)
Why Partisanship Will Increase in the Post-Trump Era (CEPR, 4 min read)
The Siren Song of Austerity (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
The Democrats’ problem in the Senate, explained (The Bonddad Blog, 3 min read)
Why Biden Can Overcome Political Gridlock (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)
The Democrats’ Four-Year Reprieve (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
Putin’s Flatlining Economy (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
Political polarisation and expected economic outcomes (VoxEU, 6 min read)
Trump’s phase one trade deal with China and the US election (Peterson Institute For International Economics, 12 min read)
How Likely Is It that Courts Will Select the US President? The Probability of Narrow, Reversible Election Results in the Electoral College versus a National Popular Vote (NBER, 22 page read)
The Psychology of Trump’s Debate Rudeness (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
Bidenomics versus Trumponomics (OMFIF, 3 min read)
Scotland after Sterling (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
Post-COVID Capitalism (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)
3 Reasons to Expect Election Result Delays (Schwab, 3 min read)
Regional Heterogeneity and US Presidential Elections (INET, 35 page read)
Pricing Currency Risks (NBER, 29 page read)
Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts? (INET, 26 page read)
How News Affects Sectoral Stock Prices Through Earnings Expectations and Risk Premia (ECB, 20 page read)
The Youths Are Coming For The Housing Market (A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read)
Everybody Lies: Pollster Edition (A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read)
It Is Time To Scrap the IMF’s Reserve Adequacy Metric (CFR, 6 min read)
Dominant Currencies: How Firms Choose Currency Invoicing And Why It Matters (NBER, 37 page read)
The Changing Nature of Turkey’s Balance Sheet Risks (CFR, 4 min read)
Machine Learning the News for Better Macroeconomic Forecasting (Bank Underground, 5 min read)
Why category leading brick and mortar retailers are likely the biggest long term COVID beneficiaries (Gavin Baker,13 min read)
Machine learning the news for better macroeconomic forecasting (Bank Underground, 5 min read)
Global connectedness and market power make firms more resilient to domestic COVID-19 shocks (Vox EU, 6 min read)
Covered Interest Parity in long-dated securities (Norges Bank, 33 page read)
Remarks by IMF Managing Director at the Climate Adaptation Summit (IMF, 1 min read)
The Impact of US Tariffs Against China on US Imports: Evidence for Trade Diversion? (ECB, 15 page read)
Big Tech Companies in Chinese Finance (PIIE, 60 min watch)
China Leads Again (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)
How Has China’s Economy Performed under the COVID-19 Shock? (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read)
China’s Surplus is Rising Rapidly. So is the U.S. Deficit. The IMF Cannot Turn a Blind Eye (Brad Setser, 3 min read)
China: seven things investors should know (LGIM Blog, 3 min read)
Banking across borders: Are Chinese banks different? (BIS, 20 page read)
Behind the Stability in China’s Currency: Beijing’s Hidden Hand (Barron’s, 4 min read)
One Belt, One Road, One Way? (Maastricht University, 23 page read)
Chinese Open Source Data Collection, Big Data, And Private Enterprise Work For State Intelligence and Security: The Case of Shenzhen Zhenhua (NBER, 5 page read)
The Big Cycles of China and Its Currency (Ray Dalio, 15 page read)
Lop-sided Chinese recovery (Twitter, 3 min read) Michael Pettis remains pessimistic on China despite the recent upbeat data. Faster growth in IP relative to consumption may cause a slowdown in growth due to unsustainable debt levels. Beijing should focus more on improving domestic demand rather than pushing supply-side policies. [Bearish CNY]
Why everyone should be using Signal instead of WhatsApp (Wired, 3 min read)
Time to align finance with biodiversity objectives (OMFIF, 2 min read)
An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults (IMF, 14 page read)
Green bond issuance set to double by 2023 after hitting $1trn (Expert Investor, 2 min read)
Building ESG momentum in US equities (Amundi, 7 min read)
The Core of the ECB’s New Strategy (Project Syndicate,4 min read)
Green Asset Pricing (ECB, 35 page read)
ESG investing looks like just another stock bubble (Advisor Perspectives, 3 min read)
Economic Aspects of the Energy Transition (NBER) Paper argues that we are not correctly accounting for the increase in electricity prices.
Forced Feminist Firms (NBER, 34 page read) Reduced turnover, increased productivity and female leadership are important mechanisms leading to observed performance gains of private and public firms. Mounting pressure to improve female representation can, therefore, lead to positive growth externalities.
HIVE EXCLUSIVES
The Recovery Trade Still Has Legs (2 min read)
By
John Tierney
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Jan 22, 2021
Investors continue to fret over COVID’s impact…
Why EM Capital Inflows Are Here to Stay (in Asia at Least) (3 min read)
By
Caroline Grady
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Jan 21, 2021
Europe’s economy is on the cusp of…
Refounded US Multilateralism Unlikely to Restore Dollar Fortunes (3 min read)
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
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Jan 21, 2021
There is a strong relationship between countries’…
DEEP DIVES
US-China Trade Relations: Which Equity Markets Are Most Affected? (6 min read)
By
Sam van de Schootbrugge
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Jan 27, 2021
Former US President Donald Trump significantly escalated,…
The Best Methods For Measuring Cryptocurrency Market Liquidity (5 min read)
By
Sam van de Schootbrugge
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Jan 20, 2021
The lack of a regulated data feed…
What Determines How Wealthy You Become? (5 min read)
By
Sam van de Schootbrugge
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Jan 13, 2021
Income and wealth inequality have become political…
HIVE INDICATORS
Where Can you Get Higher Bond Yields?
By
Caroline Grady
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Dec 04, 2020
US yields are rising. The combination of…
Global COVID-19 Tracker – India Overtakes Brazil, UK Cases Rise (4 min read)
By
Bilal Hafeez
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Sep 07, 2020
Over the last week (31 August –…
Global COVID-19 Tracker – Latest Restrictions In US And UK / EU Decides On Travel
By
Bilal Hafeez
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Jun 30, 2020
In the DM world, US recorded a…
