Introducing A New Risk Measure: The Price Of Volatile Stocks (PVS) 3 min read

By Bilal Hafeez | Oct 09, 2019
Economists like Keynes, Minsky, and Kindleberger have…

A Trading Model For Currencies Using Growth 4 min read

By Bilal Hafeez | Oct 09, 2019
Currency markets often confound investors. Unlike equities…

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We aim to deliver the best macro ideas. We strive to give a different angle and we like to challenge. We want to make our members stand out from the crowd. We do this by harnessing the experience of a network of leading thinkers led by Bilal Hafeez.

We also embrace advances in machine learning to support the work, but we never lose site of the power of the human brain. Importantly, we look outside of our own work too. We scour the world for the best analysis whether academic work, blogs, or podcasts. We curate the best. Crucially, we present everything in an accessible form where you can get the key insights with minimum time. Now, it’s time for you to join The Hive."


Markets & Investing

As we discussed more widely in our latest exclusives letter, politics and markets are becoming more and more interlinked. The impact of the impeachment process, Brexit and global unrest are likely to shake up indexes. VIEW LATEST

Monetary Policy & Inflation

Worries are emerging around the nearing end of the cycle – and the possibility that the usual tools won’t work to revive it. More and more academic work is exploring unconventional policy and offers some comfort that it’s likely to work while policy-makers keep pushing for more easing. VIEW LATEST

Fiscal Policy & Inequality

A tax system overhaul – to improve inequality or to solve the climate issues – seems to be on the cards. A concrete and actionable policy plan to be followed by governments is urgent, but no one is offering it. VIEW LATEST

Growth & Labour Market

Despite fears of doom and gloom across all indicators, the labour market is thriving in the US. VIEW LATEST


Geopolitics has taken a centre stage recently, especially with the climate movement across major cities. A few insightful pieces exploring how to try and respond to it. VIEW LATEST

Data, Models & Market Plumbing

We feature a paper looking at utilising machine learning in predicting crisis and why oil modelling remains robust. VIEW LATEST


Controversies around Hong Kong remain, and we look at how the recent undertaking of the NBA is a wider warning sign to the rest of the World. China is often scrutinised as benefitting of a developing country status so we explore the potential of change. VIEW LATEST