Top Picks: Markets and Investing

13th September

Explaining the Demise of Value Investing (Lev and Srivastava, academic paper) Clever paper that captures internally-generated intangible asset growth and adds back to book value. This improves the returns of value strategies

More on Low Long-Term Interest Rates (The Grumpy Economist) Argues that stable inflation should lead to an inverted yield curve much like the late 19th century.

Fat Tails, But Which Way? Up or Down? (Mish Talk) Makes the case that we may not see extreme market moves, but rather choppy declines.

A Crash Course On the Euro Crisis (Brunnermeier, Princeton) Excellent educational resources that runs through various factors behind financial crises from capital inflows to shadow banking.

The Best and Worst Case Scenarios for Bonds from Here (A Wealth Of Common Sense) Shows a strong correlation between starting bond yields and subsequent 5y returns and so although bonds have performed well recently – their long-term performance is likely to be poor.

 

6th September

Asset Allocation Outlook Midyear Update - Easing Into Slowing Growth (PIMCO, 9 min read) Equities: overweight US, underweight Europe, neutral the rest. Rates: long US and EM rates and linkers, neutral rest. Credit: long securitised (MBS) and EM, short IG and HY. FX: Short USD and EUR, long JPY and EM.

"Big Short" Investor Michael Burry Explains How Index Funds Will Trigger The Next Crash (Zero Hedge, 5 min read) Argues passive funds are removing price discovery from equity markets and over-promising liquidity. Likes small caps (under-represented in passive funds) and Japan stocks (owned by BoJ)

From FOMO to FONIR (Dr Ed’s Blog, 3 min read) Ed Yardeni reports back from recent client meetings and finds investors are favouring stocks on FONIR (fear of negative interest rates)

A Perspective on Secular Bull and Bear Markets (Jill Mislinkski, 4 min read) Looks at secular bull and bear markets in US equities. Finds that secular bear years make up 40% of years, that current rally looks extended and the ratio of peak earners to elderly population is turning down. Bearish stocks.

Fed Easing Sees Defensive Stocks Come Out on Top (Variant Perception, 1 min read) Over the last five Fed easing cycles consumer staples, healthcare and energy provide the highest average total return above the index one year after the Fed’s first cut (see chart). Financials and utilities the worst.

(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)

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