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Key Eventssee more…

  1. Key Events: Central Bank Bonanza, With Key Decisions Across DM and EM

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, there is only one key data point: Retail Sales – Monday. Risks to the consensus 0.3% for the control group are skewed to the downside as high-frequency data, retailers, consumer lenders, and anecdotal evidence point to a slowdown. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: Eurozone […]

  2. Key Events: USD Remains in Spotlight With CPI Due

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, these are the main data points: CPI, PPI – Tuesday, Thursday. Consensus implies inflation stasis, which is consistent with the limited actual tariff increases so far and growth dynamism that has not been weakened, yet, by the surge in policy uncertainty. Consensus forecast is for core CPI at 0.3% […]

  3. Key Events: ECB to Cut 25bp Despite Inflation Risks

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, the main data is: Employment – Friday. We find out the impact of the administration’s large-scale deportations on labour supply, unemployment and wages. We could see a positive surprise on wage growth and a negative surprise on payrolls and unemployment. PMIs – Monday, Wednesday. These are likely to convey […]

  1. Key Events: Is Europe Due for a Q1 Services Inflation Shock?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, the key data is: PCE, personal spending and income – Friday. Personal spending will likely show the consumption weakness implied by last week’s retail sales was overstated. Core PCE will likely print near market consensus of 2.6%. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: EZ final […]

  2. Key Events: UK Data Landslide

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, there is only one key data point: S&P PMIs – Friday. These are more a trading than an economic event as PMIs have decoupled from GDP. Please see our event monitor for market impact. Otherwise, this is a data-lite week. Market-moving surprises will more likely come from President Trump’s […]

  3. Key Events: Will CPI Remain Rangebound Under Trump?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, there is… CPI – Wednesday. Consensus expecting rangebound CPI (2.9% core YoY) makes sense. Thursday’s PPI will provide an estimate for core PCE that I also expect to be near the current 2.6-2.8% range. Retail sales – Friday. The control group consensus (used to estimate consumption in the GDP […]

Key Events: Tariffs Trump the Data

Macro Hive

Key Events G10 In the US, these are the highlights: 25% tariff on Mexican and Candian imports – Saturday. As of this writing (Friday), negotiations were still underway for a last-minute deal. If a deal is not found, we think these are the likely market impacts. NFP – Friday. The release will incorporate both the […]

Key Events: Will PCE Change the Fed’s Inflation View?

Macro Hive

Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are: PCE, personal income and spending – Friday. Core PCE MoM is likely to print at 20bp, a moderate number unlikely to significantly change the Fed’s inflation views. Consensus on personal income and spending imply a low savings rate that supports continued high consumption and […]

  1. Key Events: Disruption Is Inbound!

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, these are the highlights: Inauguration – Monday. Reports suggest up to 100 day-one executive orders. Key ones include tariffs, but the incoming administration has skilfully prepared the markets and plans a gradual and predictable phase in. This could be dollar negative. S&P PMIS – Friday. These are more trading […]

  2. Key Events: Will CPI Upset the Fed?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, the key data is twofold: CPI – Wednesday. Consensus expectations, 0.2% MoM for core, align with recent ranges. Together with Tuesday’s PPI, CPI will provide the December core PCE estimate, which is a key driver of Fed policymaking. Retail Sales – Thursday. Consensus for the control group (key input […]

  3. Key Events – BoC and ECB Cuts Incoming, Fed to Follow

    Macro Hive

    Key Data Events G10 In the US, it is all about inflation data: CPI, PPI – Wednesday, Thursday. CPI and PPI will provide an estimate of core PCE. Provided that estimate remains near or below 25bp, the Fed is likely to cut in December. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: German […]

Key Events: NFP to Significantly Undershoot on Lower Immigration Flows

Macro Hive

Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are as follows: NFPs – Friday. Dominique expects about 150k relative to consensus 200k largely due to lower immigration flows. Even if a low NFP, as she expects, comes with steady unemployment and wage growth, it will likely lead the Fed to cut in December, […]

Key Events: Cooler Consumption Ahead?

Macro Hive

Key Events G10 In the US, these are the key data prints: Personal income, spending and PCE – Friday. No surprise on core PCE, Powell has already told us that the Fed expects 2.8% YoY. Consensus forecasts on spending and income imply no real increase, which aligns with my expectations of slower consumption growth in […]

  1. Key Events: Disruption Ahead!

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, we have a data-light week ahead: S&P PMIs – Friday. The week’s most important release will be the S&P PMIs. Like most soft data, they have decoupled from the hard data so tell us little about the economy. For a trading perspective on the PMIs, see our Event Monitor. […]

  2. Key Events: Will CPI Support a December Fed Cut?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, there is… CPI – Wednesday. From a trading perspective, CPI is the more important release (for market impact, see our Event Monitor). From an economic and Fed perspective, it is the CPI/PPI combination that matters because they will give us an estimate of core PCE, the price index targeted […]

  3. Key Events: US Elections – A Republican Sweep?

    Macro Hive

    Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Elections – Tuesday. Prediction markets see a Republican sweep as the most likely outcome, which consensus views as bad for inflation but good for growth. The surprise would be a Republican sweep followed by macroeconomic stability, though we will not know the policy directions of the incoming […]

Key Events: Will Weather Events Cloud NFP?

Macro Hive

Key Events G10 In the US, there is… NFP – Friday. I agree with the consensus though the number will be difficult to interpret because of the impact of hurricanes. PCE, personal spending and income – Thursday. We expect core PCE MoM at 24bp. I will be focusing on the low savings rate as it […]

Key Events: Central Bank Speakers Take to the Stage

Macro Hive

Key Events G10 In the US, the key data point is: Existing/new home sales – Wednesday/Thursday. Consensus expects roughly unchanged numbers from August, which would align with a sluggish residential investment recovery. The Eurozone and UK has a quiet week for hard data but numerous central bank speakers and survey results: Preliminary PMIs – Thursday. […]

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