Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Personal income and spending – Friday. Consensus assumes a recovery in spending to 0.6% MoM and implicitly a decline in the savings rate, which would be consistent with my view that the US economy will prove more resilient to the tariffs than market consensus assumes. CB consumer […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is only one key data point: Retail Sales – Monday. Risks to the consensus 0.3% for the control group are skewed to the downside as high-frequency data, retailers, consumer lenders, and anecdotal evidence point to a slowdown. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: Eurozone […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the main data points: CPI, PPI – Tuesday, Thursday. Consensus implies inflation stasis, which is consistent with the limited actual tariff increases so far and growth dynamism that has not been weakened, yet, by the surge in policy uncertainty. Consensus forecast is for core CPI at 0.3% […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data is: Employment – Friday. We find out the impact of the administration’s large-scale deportations on labour supply, unemployment and wages. We could see a positive surprise on wage growth and a negative surprise on payrolls and unemployment. PMIs – Monday, Wednesday. These are likely to convey […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the key data is: PCE, personal spending and income – Friday. Personal spending will likely show the consumption weakness implied by last week’s retail sales was overstated. Core PCE will likely print near market consensus of 2.6%. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: EZ final […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is only one key data point: S&P PMIs – Friday. These are more a trading than an economic event as PMIs have decoupled from GDP. Please see our event monitor for market impact. Otherwise, this is a data-lite week. Market-moving surprises will more likely come from President Trump’s […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… CPI – Wednesday. Consensus expecting rangebound CPI (2.9% core YoY) makes sense. Thursday’s PPI will provide an estimate for core PCE that I also expect to be near the current 2.6-2.8% range. Retail sales – Friday. The control group consensus (used to estimate consumption in the GDP […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the highlights: 25% tariff on Mexican and Candian imports – Saturday. As of this writing (Friday), negotiations were still underway for a last-minute deal. If a deal is not found, we think these are the likely market impacts. NFP – Friday. The release will incorporate both the […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are: PCE, personal income and spending – Friday. Core PCE MoM is likely to print at 20bp, a moderate number unlikely to significantly change the Fed’s inflation views. Consensus on personal income and spending imply a low savings rate that supports continued high consumption and […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the highlights: Inauguration – Monday. Reports suggest up to 100 day-one executive orders. Key ones include tariffs, but the incoming administration has skilfully prepared the markets and plans a gradual and predictable phase in. This could be dollar negative. S&P PMIS – Friday. These are more trading […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the key data is twofold: CPI – Wednesday. Consensus expectations, 0.2% MoM for core, align with recent ranges. Together with Tuesday’s PPI, CPI will provide the December core PCE estimate, which is a key driver of Fed policymaking. Retail Sales – Thursday. Consensus for the control group (key input […]
Macro Hive
Key Data Events G10 In the US, it is all about inflation data: CPI, PPI – Wednesday, Thursday. CPI and PPI will provide an estimate of core PCE. Provided that estimate remains near or below 25bp, the Fed is likely to cut in December. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: German […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are as follows: NFPs – Friday. Dominique expects about 150k relative to consensus 200k largely due to lower immigration flows. Even if a low NFP, as she expects, comes with steady unemployment and wage growth, it will likely lead the Fed to cut in December, […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the key data prints: Personal income, spending and PCE – Friday. No surprise on core PCE, Powell has already told us that the Fed expects 2.8% YoY. Consensus forecasts on spending and income imply no real increase, which aligns with my expectations of slower consumption growth in […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, we have a data-light week ahead: S&P PMIs – Friday. The week’s most important release will be the S&P PMIs. Like most soft data, they have decoupled from the hard data so tell us little about the economy. For a trading perspective on the PMIs, see our Event Monitor. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… CPI – Wednesday. From a trading perspective, CPI is the more important release (for market impact, see our Event Monitor). From an economic and Fed perspective, it is the CPI/PPI combination that matters because they will give us an estimate of core PCE, the price index targeted […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Elections – Tuesday. Prediction markets see a Republican sweep as the most likely outcome, which consensus views as bad for inflation but good for growth. The surprise would be a Republican sweep followed by macroeconomic stability, though we will not know the policy directions of the incoming […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… NFP – Friday. I agree with the consensus though the number will be difficult to interpret because of the impact of hurricanes. PCE, personal spending and income – Thursday. We expect core PCE MoM at 24bp. I will be focusing on the low savings rate as it […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the key data point is: Existing/new home sales – Wednesday/Thursday. Consensus expects roughly unchanged numbers from August, which would align with a sluggish residential investment recovery. The Eurozone and UK has a quiet week for hard data but numerous central bank speakers and survey results: Preliminary PMIs – Thursday. […]
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