Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the highlights: Inauguration – Monday. Reports suggest up to 100 day-one executive orders. Key ones include tariffs, but the incoming administration has skilfully prepared the markets and plans a gradual and predictable phase in. This could be dollar negative. S&P PMIS – Friday. These are more trading […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the key data is twofold: CPI – Wednesday. Consensus expectations, 0.2% MoM for core, align with recent ranges. Together with Tuesday’s PPI, CPI will provide the December core PCE estimate, which is a key driver of Fed policymaking. Retail Sales – Thursday. Consensus for the control group (key input […]
Macro Hive
Key Data Events G10 In the US, it is all about inflation data: CPI, PPI – Wednesday, Thursday. CPI and PPI will provide an estimate of core PCE. Provided that estimate remains near or below 25bp, the Fed is likely to cut in December. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: German […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are as follows: NFPs – Friday. Dominique expects about 150k relative to consensus 200k largely due to lower immigration flows. Even if a low NFP, as she expects, comes with steady unemployment and wage growth, it will likely lead the Fed to cut in December, […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the key data prints: Personal income, spending and PCE – Friday. No surprise on core PCE, Powell has already told us that the Fed expects 2.8% YoY. Consensus forecasts on spending and income imply no real increase, which aligns with my expectations of slower consumption growth in […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, we have a data-light week ahead: S&P PMIs – Friday. The week’s most important release will be the S&P PMIs. Like most soft data, they have decoupled from the hard data so tell us little about the economy. For a trading perspective on the PMIs, see our Event Monitor. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… CPI – Wednesday. From a trading perspective, CPI is the more important release (for market impact, see our Event Monitor). From an economic and Fed perspective, it is the CPI/PPI combination that matters because they will give us an estimate of core PCE, the price index targeted […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Elections – Tuesday. Prediction markets see a Republican sweep as the most likely outcome, which consensus views as bad for inflation but good for growth. The surprise would be a Republican sweep followed by macroeconomic stability, though we will not know the policy directions of the incoming […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… NFP – Friday. I agree with the consensus though the number will be difficult to interpret because of the impact of hurricanes. PCE, personal spending and income – Thursday. We expect core PCE MoM at 24bp. I will be focusing on the low savings rate as it […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the key data point is: Existing/new home sales – Wednesday/Thursday. Consensus expects roughly unchanged numbers from August, which would align with a sluggish residential investment recovery. The Eurozone and UK has a quiet week for hard data but numerous central bank speakers and survey results: Preliminary PMIs – Thursday. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data is: Retail sales – Thursday. Consensus for the control group (used to build GDP estimates) is 0.3% MoM or 0.1% real (based on CPI). The consensus forecast seems both attainable and in line with recent data suggesting a resilient consumer. In the Eurozone and UK, the […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there are two key data releases: CPI and PPI – Thursday and Friday. As always, the Fed will focus on the PCE estimate to be derived from CPI and PPI rather than on CPI. The PCE estimate is unlikely to be large enough to prevent the Fed from cutting […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… NFP – Friday. A repeat of last month’s pattern of moderate NFP with lower unemployment and faster wage growth could signal lower immigration flows and associated tightening of the labour market. PMIs – Tuesday (manufacturing) and Thursday (services). PMIs are more important from a trading than from […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there main data are: PCE, personal income and spending – Friday. No market-moving surprise likely; Powell already told us in the presser he expects 2.7% for core PCE. Personal income and consumption are likely to continue to show robust income growth and consumption underpinned by a low savings rate. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are: Retail sales – Tuesday. With services spending growing faster than goods, retail sales have printed below consumption for the past couple of years. Therefore, the consensus forecast of 0.3% MoM for the retail sales control group is consistent with continued above trend consumption growth. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are: Trump and Harris debate, Tuesday 9pm EST. The debate could bring more clarity on the candidates respective policies. The challenge for President Trump will be to move away from personal attacks on VP Harris and for VP Harris to shore up her credibility on […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are: NFP – Friday. If the print shows no marked improvement on July and is below consensus for UE falling to 4.2%, the Fed will likely frontload rate cuts, starting with 50bp in September. JOLTS – Wednesday. The U/V ratio is more important than headline. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main releases are: July durable goods orders – Monday. The market is looking for a rise of 4.2% MoM after June’s dip, but a flat reading ex-transportation. The second reading of Q2 GDP – Thursday. Expectations are for the QoQ SAAR to remain at +2.8% from the first read. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Democratic National Convention – Monday to Thursday. Harris is due to speak on Thursday, following Walz on Wednesday. This will follow her speech in North Carolina on Friday, where she put forward some of her economic agenda. History suggests her odds likely increase follow the convention, but […]
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