Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, we have a data-light week ahead: S&P PMIs – Friday. The week’s most important release will be the S&P PMIs. Like most soft data, they have decoupled from the hard data so tell us little about the economy. For a trading perspective on the PMIs, see our Event Monitor. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… CPI – Wednesday. From a trading perspective, CPI is the more important release (for market impact, see our Event Monitor). From an economic and Fed perspective, it is the CPI/PPI combination that matters because they will give us an estimate of core PCE, the price index targeted […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Elections – Tuesday. Prediction markets see a Republican sweep as the most likely outcome, which consensus views as bad for inflation but good for growth. The surprise would be a Republican sweep followed by macroeconomic stability, though we will not know the policy directions of the incoming […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… NFP – Friday. I agree with the consensus though the number will be difficult to interpret because of the impact of hurricanes. PCE, personal spending and income – Thursday. We expect core PCE MoM at 24bp. I will be focusing on the low savings rate as it […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the key data point is: Existing/new home sales – Wednesday/Thursday. Consensus expects roughly unchanged numbers from August, which would align with a sluggish residential investment recovery. The Eurozone and UK has a quiet week for hard data but numerous central bank speakers and survey results: Preliminary PMIs – Thursday. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data is: Retail sales – Thursday. Consensus for the control group (used to build GDP estimates) is 0.3% MoM or 0.1% real (based on CPI). The consensus forecast seems both attainable and in line with recent data suggesting a resilient consumer. In the Eurozone and UK, the […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there are two key data releases: CPI and PPI – Thursday and Friday. As always, the Fed will focus on the PCE estimate to be derived from CPI and PPI rather than on CPI. The PCE estimate is unlikely to be large enough to prevent the Fed from cutting […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… NFP – Friday. A repeat of last month’s pattern of moderate NFP with lower unemployment and faster wage growth could signal lower immigration flows and associated tightening of the labour market. PMIs – Tuesday (manufacturing) and Thursday (services). PMIs are more important from a trading than from […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there main data are: PCE, personal income and spending – Friday. No market-moving surprise likely; Powell already told us in the presser he expects 2.7% for core PCE. Personal income and consumption are likely to continue to show robust income growth and consumption underpinned by a low savings rate. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are: Retail sales – Tuesday. With services spending growing faster than goods, retail sales have printed below consumption for the past couple of years. Therefore, the consensus forecast of 0.3% MoM for the retail sales control group is consistent with continued above trend consumption growth. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are: Trump and Harris debate, Tuesday 9pm EST. The debate could bring more clarity on the candidates respective policies. The challenge for President Trump will be to move away from personal attacks on VP Harris and for VP Harris to shore up her credibility on […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data points are: NFP – Friday. If the print shows no marked improvement on July and is below consensus for UE falling to 4.2%, the Fed will likely frontload rate cuts, starting with 50bp in September. JOLTS – Wednesday. The U/V ratio is more important than headline. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main releases are: July durable goods orders – Monday. The market is looking for a rise of 4.2% MoM after June’s dip, but a flat reading ex-transportation. The second reading of Q2 GDP – Thursday. Expectations are for the QoQ SAAR to remain at +2.8% from the first read. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… Democratic National Convention – Monday to Thursday. Harris is due to speak on Thursday, following Walz on Wednesday. This will follow her speech in North Carolina on Friday, where she put forward some of her economic agenda. History suggests her odds likely increase follow the convention, but […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, the main data is: CPI – Wednesday. Consensus is 0.2% MoM for core. The Fed will look for continued OER disinflation and, based on CPI and Tuesday’s PPI, an estimate of core PCE near 20bp. Retail sales – Wednesday. Following June’s 0.4%, consensus expects a slowdown to 0.1% ex […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is only one key event: ISM Services PMI – Monday. Following the NFP miss, any miss relative to consensus of 51.3 could see further rate cuts priced in. In the Eurozone and UK, it is a quiet week: German Final July CPI – Friday. Preliminary EZ July inflation […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is only one key data event: NFP – Friday. The consensus is for 175k, which would add to Fed confidence that the economy is doing well and remove concern about the employment mandate. In the Eurozone and UK, the main events will be: UK Chancellor’s statement – Monday. […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, there is… PCE price index, pers. income, spending – Friday. Consensus seems reasonable. The Fed watches the services component of PCE. We will examine median price PCE for indication of trend and see personal savings remaining around 4%. Q2 GDP – Thursday. Consensus is 1.9% vs the Atlanta Fed’s […]
Macro Hive
Key Events G10 In the US, these are the important data points: Retail sales – Tuesday. Expect 0.2% for the control group, in line with consensus. Consumption growth is slowing due to catchup in personal income tax payments. Manufacturing production – Tuesday. Consensus of –0.1% mom appears reasonable, though the data says little about the […]
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