Global Rates Weeklysee more…

  1. Gilts Bear Steepening, Further Inversion for CZK

    Henry Occleston and Caroline Grady

    The BoE hiked 25bps as expected, but the hawkish dissent was overwhelmed by a much more bearish outlook for growth in the MPR.

  2. Will Japanese Yields Ever Rise? / ZAR Flatteners

    Bilal Hafeez and Caroline Grady

    The BoJ reiterates its YCC policy and desire for higher inflation. With Jpn 10y near the YCC limit of 0.25%, inflationary pressures could be transmitted to higher 30y yields.

  3. Have the Structural Forces Keeping US Real Yields Low Changed? / Chinese Rates Market Pricing is Too Gloomy

    Bilal Hafeez and Bert Gochet

    The rise in bond yields has been a clear theme of late – US 10y (swap) yields have risen 100bps since the start of March.

  1. US Yields Price Lower Fed Funds

    Henry Occleston

    We take the opportunity to reintroduce our report on CFTC positioning for US rates futures. Going forwards, we will produce this as a weekly report.

  2. Positioning for 10Y Bund Swap Spread Tightening

    Henry Occleston

    EUR swap spreads have widened on the back of ECB hike expectations. The 10Y Bund swap spread looks stretched.

  3. How to Play the EUR Curve, and Chile to Re-Flatten

    Bilal Hafeez and Caroline Grady

    There is a risk of near-term EUR 2s5s flattening, following the precedent of the USD and GBP 2s5s curves flattening, after core inflation started to trend higher.

US Recession Brings Steepening Risk

Bilal Hafeez

Our yield-curve based US recession model is assigning a 50% probability of a recession in the next twelve months. As for the consensus of economists, most are expecting US growth...

2s30s Gilts Steepening

Henry Occleston

The BoE took a dovish lean at today’s meeting, raising its bank rate 25bps but with one vote for no-change and a statement that toned down the likelihood of future hikes.

  1. EGB Steepening, Long China Rates

    Caroline Grady and Henry Occleston

    As we had expected, the ECB surprised hawkishly, with an accelerated winddown in APP. We remain long China rates with the ambitious GDP growth target signalling...

  2. Russia Conflict Brings Steepeners Into Play

    Bilal Hafeez and Caroline Grady

    Our Global Rates Weekly report suggests rate markets have reacted differently to the Russia invasion than to the financial sanctions.

  3. What Oil Shocks Mean For US Rates

    Bilal Hafeez

    Oil prices are now up 30% since the start of the year, thanks in part to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. This will impact both growth and...

BTP Supply Net of PSPP, Banxico to Out-Hike the Fed

Bilal Hafeez and Caroline Grady and Henry Occleston

This week in DM rates, we turn our attention to the outlook for the UK Gilts curve. Right now, the BoE’s more hawkish...

Gilts Net Supply, BRL Steepeners

Bilal Hafeez and Caroline Grady and Henry Occleston

This week in DM rates, we turn our attention to the outlook for the UK Gilts curve. Right now, the BoE’s more hawkish...

  1. Schatz Weakness, KRW Steepeners

    Bilal Hafeez and Caroline Grady and Henry Occleston

    Hawkish surprises across BoE and ECB meetings, although the results were actually more nuanced than the market is pricing...

  2. Fed 2023 Hikes; INR Flatteners

    Bilal Hafeez

    A hawkish Fed could see 2023 hikes repriced higher. US 5y5y real yields remain lower, which suggests 2s10s could flatten further...

  3. How to Play Bunds

    Bilal Hafeez

    German 10y yields moved briefly into positive territory over the past week and have clearly stayed above -0.1%, which they...

Is There a January Effect in Rates?

Bilal Hafeez

The start of the year is replete with stories of new cash being put to work. This typically implies risk markets should rally, but...

Don’t Get Cute with QT

Bilal Hafeez

US 10-year yields have surged to their highest level since March 2021. The recent increase has been driven by real yields...

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