By
Bilal Hafeez
July 14, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
China & Hong Kong | Commodities & Energy | Economics | Growth & Labour Market
July 14, 2020
[Bullish Equities, Bullish Euro] China now competes with the US as a key driver of global growth. Yet the quality of Chinese…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
July 09, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
July 09, 2020
Mass immunization against COVID-19 could begin as early as mid-2021 – sooner than policymakers and market participants expect. And when it does,…
By
Caroline Grady
July 09, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics | FX | Growth & Labour Market | Rates
July 09, 2020
- CNY to benefit from rising yield differentials and a strong recovery - INR continues to defy dismal economic reality due to…
By
John Butler
July 09, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Commodities & Energy
July 09, 2020
After crude oil, iron ore is the world’s largest traded commodity by both weight and value. At any one point in time,…
By
John Butler
July 08, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Business & Technology | COVID-19
July 08, 2020
In Part I of this series, I explored how the Covid-19 scare has highlighted some of the major challenges already facing the…
By
John Tierney
July 06, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Growth & Labour Market | US
July 06, 2020
Last week’s employment report offered several positive indicators for a nascent recovery. Payroll employment jumped by 4.8 million or 3.6%. The official…
By
Mirza Baig
July 06, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Emerging Markets | Monetary Policy & Inflation | Rates
July 06, 2020
Indonesia’s finance minister and Bank Indonesia’s (BI) governor have announced a ‘burden sharing’ plan to fund part of the government’s fiscal stimulus.…
By
John Butler
July 02, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Business & Technology | COVID-19
July 02, 2020
[Bearish Fintech] The fintech industry is in crisis, and on multiple fronts. Two had already become active before the Covid-19 scare: alternative…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
July 02, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
July 02, 2020
The Fed could be moving towards an operational framework where it directly targets access to credit in the real economy rather than…
By
Rajeeb Pramanik
July 02, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics | Emerging Markets
July 02, 2020
[Bearish Brazil] The Brazilian economy is sliding into a deep recession: it has begun to contract even in nominal terms for the…
By
John Butler
Andrew Simon
Stefan Posea
July 01, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Commodities & Energy | Investment Strategy
July 01, 2020
Re-opening of economies and less use of public transport should see energy demand pick up. OPEC supply cuts and global producers shutting down…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
July 01, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics | Geopolitics
July 01, 2020
COVID will have a long-term impact on the global economy, but other geopolitical risks could also have significant macro and financial market…
By
Phil Suttle
June 29, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics | Geopolitics | US
June 29, 2020
The odds of a Democrat sweep in November have recently risen from 35% to about 60%. A Biden presidency would warrant lower equity prices…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
June 25, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19 | US
June 25, 2020
The growth in COVID-19 cases in the US is likely to accelerate further, but new blanket lockdowns from states appear unlikely: the virus has…
By
John Tierney
June 25, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics | US
June 25, 2020
The latest employment insurance claims report, released on Thursday morning, bodes poorly for next week’s June employment report…
By
George Goncalves
Vikrant Kumar Chandan
June 25, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Rates | US
June 25, 2020
No two periods are alike but what is starkly different now from the GFC is that foreign investors (including foreign central banks – FCBs) were sellers…
By
Caroline Grady
June 25, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
FX
June 25, 2020
Markets have been on a bumpy ride over the past two weeks. Ongoing policy stimulus and relaxation of COVID lockdowns continue to buoy risk…
By
Phil Rush
June 25, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics | UK
June 25, 2020
Recent reports indicate the government is considering a temporary VAT cut despite historical evidence that it makes little difference to UK consumption…
By
George Goncalves
June 18, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Rates | US
June 18, 2020
There are a number of market beliefs that develop over time which end up being accepted without question. One of those givens is that foreign…
By
Rajeeb Pramanik
June 18, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Emerging Markets | Monetary Policy & Inflation
June 18, 2020
Global asset purchases under Quantitative Easing (QE) could top $6 trillion in 2020, Fitch Ratings estimates – three times the previous peak in 2013…
By
Caroline Grady
June 18, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics | Emerging Markets
June 18, 2020
Deteriorating C/A positions are beginning to raise concerns over currency performance in some emerging markets. Lockdowns have triggered an…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
June 18, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
June 18, 2020
Based on continued market normalization and unchanged Fed policies, reserves are headed towards $4.3tn at end-2020. This could clog banks’…
By
John Butler
Andrew Simon
June 16, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Commodities & Energy | Investment Strategy
June 16, 2020
Re-opening of economies and less use of public transport should see energy demand pick up. OPEC supply cuts and global producers shutting down…
By
Bilal Hafeez
June 12, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19
June 12, 2020
The investment bank or sell-side financial sector has experienced major shocks in recent decades. Some have been positive, like the repeal of US…
By
John Nugée
June 11, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19 | Sustainability & Social Issues
June 11, 2020
As the world increasingly eases its various lockdowns, first in Asia and Australasia and now with gathering momentum in Europe, we move from a…
By
Caroline Grady
Felipe Espitia
June 11, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
China & Hong Kong | Geopolitics | US
June 11, 2020
Last month’s decision by China to impose a new security law on Hong Kong has triggered a new stage in US-China tensions. The US is set to revoke…
By
Bilal Hafeez
June 11, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Growth & Labour Market | US
June 11, 2020
The IMF says it’s the worst recession since the Great Depression. No, the worst in 300 years, says the Bank of England. And now this week…
By
John Butler
June 11, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
FX | Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
June 11, 2020
In part I of this series, I claimed that the US dollar shares some characteristics with risky assets, notwithstanding its reputation for being a safe…
