By
Caroline Grady
January 21, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
Emerging Markets
January 21, 2021
Summary Accelerating capital inflows through Q4 2020 were a key driver of EMFX. We expect inflows will remain strong in Asia driven…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
January 21, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
FX
January 21, 2021
Summary The dollar share of global foreign reserves declined under the Trump administration’s unilateralism. President Biden’s multilateralism alone may be unable to…
By
Bilal Hafeez
January 21, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Business & Technology
Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain
Podcasts
January 21, 2021
This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with economist and regulatory hacker, Eli Dourado. He provides his views on some…
By
Caroline Grady
January 19, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Europe
Monetary Policy & Inflation
January 19, 2021
Europe’s economy is on the cusp of a double-dip recession. A worsening COVID situation and a tightening of restrictions means the bloc…
By
Sam van de Schootbrugge
January 18, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
Growth & Labour Market
UK
January 18, 2021
Summary Average asking prices fell 0.9% on last month, according to the latest Rightmove data. YoY changes remain positive, but early-pandemic momentum…
By
Bilal Hafeez
January 18, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
FX
Investment Strategy
Podcasts
Trade
January 18, 2021
This is an edited transcript of our 12 Investment Ideas For 2021 From Our Listeners podcast episode. The trade ideas are the…
By
Caroline Grady
January 15, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
China
Geopolitics
US
January 15, 2021
Summary Chinese exports have outperformed this year, resulting in a rising global market share. And imports contracted, leaving China’s trade surplus at…
By
Phil Suttle
January 14, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
Monetary Policy & Inflation
Politics
UK
January 14, 2021
Summary UK relative economic performance has been very weak since the 2016 Brexit vote. Brexit’s arrival is unlikely to reverse this trend,…
By
John Butler
January 14, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Markets and Investing
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
January 14, 2021
Summary Food and energy prices have risen sharply of late Upward pressure on global manufacturing costs is a likely result US breakevens…
By
John Tierney
January 12, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Investment Strategy
Markets and Investing
US
January 12, 2021
Summary The Russell 2000 index has been on a hot streak since the election, far outperforming the SPX and NASDAQ 100 indices.…
By
John Tierney
January 12, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Growth & Labour Market
US
January 12, 2021
Summary Underlying trends in the US labour market are promising. Outside of the leisure and food service sectors, the private sector is…
By
Bilal Hafeez
January 11, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
China
COVID-19
Europe
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
January 11, 2021
Summary China has increased fiscal deficits, credit, public spending, and has re-opened, yet inflation is anemic. This shows that commodity price inflation…
By
Caroline Grady
January 08, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Asia
COVID-19
Economics
EM
Equities
Monetary Policy & Inflation
UK
January 08, 2021
Summary Fresh COVID restrictions leave downside risks to the global recovery as mobility slows again. Asia’s dominance in global growth, an accommodative…
By
Bilal Hafeez
January 07, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
China
Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain
Europe
Oil
Politics
US
January 07, 2021
Summary New alliances in the Middle East, the EU-China CAI deal, and Brexit show geopolitics is back. The US-China battle on digital…
By
John Tierney
January 07, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Credit
Markets and Investing
US
January 07, 2021
Summary The corporate bond market outlook is sanguine. Credit spreads are near the past decade’s tights and likely to remain in a…
By
Bilal Hafeez
January 05, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
FX
Investment Strategy
January 05, 2021
Summary Consensus FX forecasts indicate no expectation of dollar weakness against the majors. Market implication: the bearish dollar trade may not be…
By
John Butler
December 22, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
China
COVID-19
EM
Markets and Investing
December 22, 2020
Supply issues pushing iron ore prices to fresh highs. Iron appears overextended vs other industrial commodities. Chinese steel producers have blamed speculators.…
By
Caroline Grady
December 18, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
EM
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
December 18, 2020
Monetary Policy With most major DM central banks already wrapping up for the year the remaining policy meetings are in EM. Turkey…
By
Bilal Hafeez
December 17, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
Global Macro
Monetary Policy & Inflation
Podcasts
December 17, 2020
We’ve had many great guests on our podcast show this year, and fascinating discussing on a whole range of topics. I always…
By
Reuven Benichou
December 17, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
EM
Fiscal Policy & Inequality
FX
December 17, 2020
Summary Russia introduced a new fiscal rule in 2017 to preserve wealth across generations It implies FX interventions by the central bank…
By
George Goncalves
December 16, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
December 16, 2020
The last FOMC meeting of 2020 is upon us. Given the year we’ve just had we doubt the Fed wants to create…
By
Sam van de Schootbrugge
December 15, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19
Europe
US
December 15, 2020
COVID vaccine rollout has begun. The Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine is now approved for use in the US, UK and several other…
By
Ken Dickson
December 14, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Geopolitics
Growth & Labour Market
Monetary Policy & Inflation
UK
December 14, 2020
There was much to worry about in the UK during 2020. The response to the Covid-19 pandemic was slow yet chaotic. The…
By
Bilal Hafeez
December 14, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Business & Technology
Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain
Markets and Investing
December 14, 2020
This is a transcript of our podcast episode with one of our most popular returning guests, star investor Jim Leitner. He gives…
By
Caroline Grady
December 11, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
EM
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
December 11, 2020
Monetary Policy Wednesday’s Fed decision will be the highlight of the week, with forward guidance and a possible duration shift in focus.…
By
Mirza Baig
December 11, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
China
Economics
FX
Monetary Policy & Inflation
December 11, 2020
Summary Long Chinese fixed income FX unhedged is a multi-year macro trade. It’s underpinned by China’s favourable BoP position, high positive real…
By
Caroline Grady
December 11, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Asia
EM
FX
Monetary Policy & Inflation
December 11, 2020
Summary Rupee looks set to end the year as Asia’s worst-performing currency This reflects RBI FX intervention with FX reserves up $xbn…
By
Thorsten Wegener
December 11, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Global Macro
Other
Politics
December 11, 2020
As though 2020’s turmoil was too paltry to earn a prominent spot in the history books of modern civilization, 2021 took a…
