By
John Nugée
May 28, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics | Fiscal Policy & Inequality
May 28, 2020
As governments around the world take on huge quantities of debt in an effort to support their economies, two questions repeatedly arise: won’t all…
By
Bilal Hafeez
May 28, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19 | Emerging Markets | Monetary Policy & Inflation
May 28, 2020
We were delighted to have Alfonso Prat-Gay, Argentina’s former central bank governor (2002-2004) and finance minister (2015-2016) as our podcast…
By
Peter Attard Montalto
May 28, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19 | ESG & Climate Change | Investment Strategy & Asset Allocation | Rates
May 28, 2020
How should an investor price a government bond? Is the risk of repayment all that matters, or is it important to consider what the proceeds will be…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
May 28, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19 | Growth & Labour Market | Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
May 28, 2020
The US administration’s initial policy response to COVID-19 has provided the majority of workers with replacement income larger than their previous…
By
Susan Wegener
May 26, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19 | Geopolitics | Monetary Policy & Inflation
May 26, 2020
Of the events that COVID-19 has suspended or cancelled, the commemoration of the 75th anniversary of Victory in Europe Day was not one; the end of…
By
Caroline Grady
May 21, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19 | Economics | UK
May 21, 2020
Fiscal expansion in response to COVID and the forthcoming spike in debt have dominated investor concerns in recent months. But these significantly…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
May 21, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Growth & Labour Market
May 21, 2020
In this note I list my top three risks of V (fast) and U (slow) shaped recoveries. On balance, V seems more probable, mainly due to the US electoral…
By
Natalie Cohen
May 21, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics | ESG & Climate Change | Growth & Labour Market | Monetary Policy & Inflation
May 21, 2020
As the parable goes, drop a frog into a pot of boiling water and it’ll jump straight out. Put it into tepid water and slowly bring it to the boil and…
By
John Tierney
May 21, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Business & Technology
May 21, 2020
Willie Sutton was a famous bank robber during the 1930s. When asked why he robbed banks he reportedly replied, “Because that’s where the money…
By
Bilal Hafeez
May 14, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
FX
May 14, 2020
Markets are starting to come to terms with a COVID world and Asia FX is no different. After tumbling in March, most Asia FX stabilised over…
By
John Tierney
May 14, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Growth & Labour Market | US
May 14, 2020
There was plenty for everyone in last Friday’s US employment report. Bears (and most media) jumped on the massive increase in the unemployment…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
George Goncalves
May 12, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
May 12, 2020
Several Fed Funds futures contracts began pricing above 100 last week, implying that markets were pricing in a small negative Fed Funds rate in…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
May 07, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Credit | US
May 07, 2020
Despite its exceptional size, US policy support could disappoint due to poor targeting. With presidential elections in November, this suggests further…
By
John Butler
May 07, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics | Geopolitics | Monetary Policy & Inflation
May 07, 2020
This week the German Constitutional Court (GCC) ruled that the Bundesbank must clarify that its participation in unconventional, ECB-mandated bond…
By
Bilal Hafeez
May 07, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19
May 07, 2020
We look at which countries have the strictest lockdowns, and using mobility data we track which countries have followed the lockdowns most closely…
By
Caroline Grady
May 07, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19 | Economics | Fiscal Policy & Inequality
May 07, 2020
South Korea is an often-cited example of a country that has successfully controlled COVID. And the economic fallout looks to be significantly less…
By
Phil Rush
May 06, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics | Monetary Policy & Inflation | UK
May 06, 2020
The prevailing state of the UK economy is unrecognisable relative to the BoE’s last monetary policy report in January. Substantial downgrades are…
By
Bilal Hafeez
May 05, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Commodities | Economics | Emerging Markets | Equities | Investment Strategy & Asset Allocation | US
May 05, 2020
US equities’ steady upward march even as economic and company data worsens by the day has left many investment pros scratching their heads…
By
John Tierney
April 30, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Equities | US
April 30, 2020
US equities’ steady upward march even as economic and company data worsens by the day has left many investment pros scratching their heads…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
April 30, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19 | Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
April 30, 2020
A May pause in new policy initiatives against a backdrop of slow support to the real economy creates downside market risks. Over the longer run…
By
John Butler
April 30, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Business & Technology
April 30, 2020
Bitcoin has drawn speculative attention recently in part because of the much-anticipated ‘halving’ taking place in the coming weeks…
By
Bilal Hafeez
April 30, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19
April 30, 2020
We’re in the fog of COVID, and it would be tempting to extrapolate our lockdown lifestyles into the post-COVID world. However…
By
Caroline Grady
April 29, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
April 29, 2020
The ECB’s governing council has significantly stepped up its crisis response since the last scheduled policy meeting six weeks ago. It’s delivered…
By
George Goncalves
April 29, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation | Rates | US
April 29, 2020
The Federal Reserve has made one of the most dramatic displays in central bank activity in history, skipping the scheduled March meeting due to…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
April 23, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19
April 23, 2020
Incremental news on COVID-19 is likely to point towards greater healthcare capacity and lower mortality rates than current consensus. On balance…
By
John Butler
April 23, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Commodities & Energy | Economics
April 23, 2020
Over the past week we have witnessed an unprecedented collapse in the benchmark US WTI oil future price to outright negative levels. This was due…
By
Caroline Grady
April 23, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics | Growth & Labour Market
April 23, 2020
The huge economic cost of the COVID lockdowns is becoming evident. European PMIs have collapsed to a level far below that recorded in…
By
Bilal Hafeez
April 23, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
COVID-19
April 23, 2020
Age is one of the clearest contributing factors to COVID fatalities. Study after study is finding that the case fatality rate (CFR) for the elderly is much…
