By
Caroline Grady
April 20, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
April 20, 2021
Summary Thursday’s ECB meeting is unlikely to see any policy shift. The Governing Council will likely reaffirm increased PEPP purchases through Q2…
By
Bilal Hafeez
April 16, 2021
In: hive-podcasts |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
April 16, 2021
Boris focuses on global macro and EM. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
April 08, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Growth & Labour Market
Monetary Policy & Inflation
April 08, 2021
Summary The recent pick up in PPI will likely be absorbed through productivity gains and stagnant wages rather than higher CPI inflation.…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
April 01, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
April 01, 2021
Summary The Fed, BoE, BoC and RBA’s benign neglect of steeper curves likely reflects growth expectations that could prove optimistic in the…
By
Bilal Hafeez
March 22, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
March 22, 2021
‘If there’s no inflation, why are prices up so much?’ So reads a Time article from 2013. Today, this sentiment returns: ardent…
By
Caroline Grady
March 19, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
EM
Monetary Policy & Inflation
March 19, 2021
Summary Rate hikes from Brazil, Turkey and Russia this week raise the question, which EM country is next? India and the Philippines…
By
Tatiana Orlova
March 18, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
March 18, 2021
Summary I expect the CBR to hike its policy rate by 25bps to 4.50% on Friday and follow with further tightening in…
By
Sam van de Schootbrugge
March 17, 2021
In: Deep Dives |
Europe
Monetary Policy & Inflation
March 17, 2021
Summary A Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper documents systematic differences in forecasting accuracy among participants of the ECB’s SPF. Forecaster…
By
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
George Goncalves
March 16, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
March 16, 2021
Summary Entering this week’s meeting, the Fed likely has three key objectives: Placing the recovery on solid footing. Strengthening the credibility of…
By
Bilal Hafeez
March 15, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
March 15, 2021
Investors are obsessing about this Wednesday’s Fed meeting. Will the Fed raise their forecasts for policy rate hikes in 2023? Will they…
By
John Tierney
March 04, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Asset Allocation
Equities
Monetary Policy & Inflation
March 04, 2021
Summary Rising rates have sparked alarm over inflation and the possible Fed response. But so far, few have wondered how the broader…
By
Bilal Hafeez
March 01, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
March 01, 2021
The Fed’s failure is neither that rates volatility has picked up nor that equity markets fell last week. Rather, it is that…
By
Jon Turek
February 09, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
Monetary Policy & Inflation
Rates
February 09, 2021
Summary The recent RBA meeting may have set the template for how DM central banks will manage monetary policy at zero policy…
By
Bilal Hafeez
January 29, 2021
In: hive-podcasts |
Equities
Monetary Policy & Inflation
Rates
January 29, 2021
Jon is the author of the widely followed Cheap Convexity blog and always has excellent insights on Fed policy…
By
George Goncalves
January 26, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
January 26, 2021
Summary 2021 sees a more dovish FOMC voter block, yet the tone at the year’s first meeting should deviate little from the…
By
Caroline Grady
January 19, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Europe
Monetary Policy & Inflation
January 19, 2021
Europe’s economy is on the cusp of a double-dip recession. A worsening COVID situation and a tightening of restrictions means the bloc…
By
Phil Suttle
January 14, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
Monetary Policy & Inflation
Politics
UK
January 14, 2021
Summary UK relative economic performance has been very weak since the 2016 Brexit vote. Brexit’s arrival is unlikely to reverse this trend,…
By
John Butler
January 14, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Markets and Investing
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
January 14, 2021
Summary Food and energy prices have risen sharply of late Upward pressure on global manufacturing costs is a likely result US breakevens…
By
Bilal Hafeez
January 11, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
China & Hong Kong
COVID-19
Europe
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
January 11, 2021
Summary China has increased fiscal deficits, credit, public spending, and has re-opened, yet inflation is anemic. This shows that commodity price inflation…
By
Caroline Grady
January 08, 2021
In: Hive Exclusives |
Asia
COVID-19
Economics
EM
Equities
Monetary Policy & Inflation
UK
January 08, 2021
Summary Fresh COVID restrictions leave downside risks to the global recovery as mobility slows again. Asia’s dominance in global growth, an accommodative…
By
Caroline Grady
December 18, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
EM
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
December 18, 2020
Monetary Policy With most major DM central banks already wrapping up for the year the remaining policy meetings are in EM. Turkey…
By
Bilal Hafeez
December 17, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
Global Macro
Monetary Policy & Inflation
Podcasts
December 17, 2020
We’ve had many great guests on our podcast show this year, and fascinating discussing on a whole range of topics. I always…
By
Sam van de Schootbrugge
December 16, 2020
In: Deep Dives |
Economics
Monetary Policy & Inflation
December 16, 2020
Summary Inflation expectations are an important component of Central Bank inflation measures. Using household and firm survey data, the Bank of Canada…
By
George Goncalves
December 16, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
December 16, 2020
The last FOMC meeting of 2020 is upon us. Given the year we’ve just had we doubt the Fed wants to create…
By
Ken Dickson
December 14, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Geopolitics
Growth & Labour Market
Monetary Policy & Inflation
UK
December 14, 2020
There was much to worry about in the UK during 2020. The response to the Covid-19 pandemic was slow yet chaotic. The…
By
Caroline Grady
December 11, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Economics
EM
Monetary Policy & Inflation
US
December 11, 2020
Monetary Policy Wednesday’s Fed decision will be the highlight of the week, with forward guidance and a possible duration shift in focus.…
By
Mirza Baig
December 11, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
China & Hong Kong
Economics
FX
Monetary Policy & Inflation
December 11, 2020
Summary Long Chinese fixed income FX unhedged is a multi-year macro trade. It’s underpinned by China’s favourable BoP position, high positive real…
By
Caroline Grady
December 11, 2020
In: Hive Exclusives |
Asia
EM
FX
Monetary Policy & Inflation
December 11, 2020
Summary Rupee looks set to end the year as Asia’s worst-performing currency This reflects RBI FX intervention with FX reserves up $xbn…
