Bilal Hafeez
With the holiday period almost upon us, I thought I’d share my favourite TV shows. I’m sure you’ll find something you haven’t seen. And send me your recommendations too! Industry (HBO Max/Now TV) Probably the best show on TV and a worthy binge after Succession ended. It’s based in the world of finance and packs […]
Bilal Hafeez
Dave DeWalt is Founder, CEO, and Managing Director of NightDragon, an investment and advisory firm focused on growth and late-stage cybersecurity, safety, security, and privacy companies.
Bilal Hafeez
Nigel Toon is the founder of Graphcore, which builds unique IPU chips designed for AI. He sits as a Non-Executive Director on the board of the UK Research and Innovation Council and has sat on the UK Prime Minister's Business Council.
Bilal Hafeez
Melanie Mitchell is one of the leading AI researchers in the world. She is Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.
Bilal Hafeez
Chris Rauh is a Professor of Economics and Data Science at the University of Cambridge. He works with complex datasets and applied methodologies, including machine learning and structural modelling.
Bilal Hafeez
Bilal is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. Before that, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank.
Bilal Hafeez
There have been some shocks in 2023. A notable one was the US regional bank crisis – no one was expecting it. After all, US banks were supposed to safe after all the post-GFC regulation. When I say no-one, there was one person, Dominique, who wrote in late 2022 that a ‘grey swan’ event for […]
Richard Jones
Football Focus Football is fast becoming a theme for my Grey Swans. Last year’s was on the Magpies. This year? There are several tempting possibilities. I looked at a couple of scenarios – Manchester City winning the treble again, or Aston Villa winning the Premier League. The odds on the former, between 14/1 and 16/1, […]
Karl Massey
The markets obey a version of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. There is a limit to the precision with which certain pairs of physical properties can be specified simultaneously. Instead of ‘position’ and ‘momentum’, finance has a ‘what’ and a ‘when’. For the sake of the Grey Swan construct, let us imagine this ‘what’ occurs next year in […]
John Tierney
Because of ageing and disabilities, labour force participation is set to fall to 60% in coming years (from 62.8% currently). Absent offsetting growth in productivity, that will lead to slower GDP growth and tax revenue to address the aging problem
Sam van de Schootbrugge
The summer months are upon us. This means fewer office distractions and fewer short-term deadlines, creating the ideal opportunity for researchers to get stuck into meatier projects. In academia, this summer lull brings in a surge of publications in the months that follow (Chart 1).
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A Review of Financial Studies paper examines the pitfalls of mean-variance portfolio optimisation. It confirms a well-known result - historical sample moments are suboptimal proxies for true means and variances, and that optimisation methods estimating these past values have poor forecasting performance.
Bilal Hafeez
Sean McGould – the founder/CEO of the Lighthouse Group – a $15bn investment management firm. Prior to Lighthouse, Sean was the Director of the Outside Trader Investment Program for Trout Trading Management Company.
Bilal Hafeez
Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of alternative investments, like hedge funds. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associate...
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new paper in the highly rated Review of Financial Studies journal explains how momentum profits are strongly linked to the performance of winners and losers during the formation period.
Bilal Hafeez
Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 ‘for services to financial journalism.’ His latest book is ‘The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism’.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A popular Swiss Financial Institute research paper, co-authored by UC Berkeley researchers, reveals the importance of following the right Twitter accounts.
Bilal Hafeez
Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new FEDS working paper uses Twitter chatter to build a measure of credit and financial market sentiment. The authors use Keyword Clustering alongside FinBERT to assign sentiment scores to tweets. They then average over tweets to create sentiment indices at different frequencies.
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