Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Changes ADDED: Bearish 10y Gilts –UK political risks rising as Starmer leadership in doubt. ADDED: Bearish 10y UST – Added at 4.35% on loose FCs supporting growth, high deficit, strong US data and inflation fears. ADDED: Bullish 2y UST – Tactically added 2y at 4% to reduce […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary The RBA hiked by 25 bps as the market expected. The decision was more one-sided than we thought due to their desire to set the policy rate in restrictive territory. The RBA also hawkishly revised its forecast, with trimmed-mean inflation now expected to reach 3.5% YoY by year-end, despite a 4.7% cash rate. Despite […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Tomorrow’s RBA is unlikely to be as clear cut as consensus makes up who expect a further 25 bps rate hike. In favour of a hike is a still tight labour market, loose financial conditions sustaining strong credit growth, and rising inflation expectations. Arguing against a rate hike is the RBA’s desire to ‘go […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Changes ADDED: Bullish SOFR Jun 27 – Fed could be dovish with new Chair, particularly if economy weakens. Recent Reports on Active Views FX Bullish CHF/JPY – Given the rally in EUR/CHF, the likelihood of intervention has fallen. Meanwhile, the BoJ remains dovish, considering a demand […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary Despite inflation implications, the BoJ is likely to treat the energy shock as a demand shock first and foremost. We expect the BoJ to lift its headline inflation forecast for 2026, but this is of little importance relative to Gov Tamura’s decision to hold or hike. Elsewhere, we believe loose financial conditions are leading […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Changes ADDED: Bullish FX Carry (tactical) – Our driver-based system shifted strongly bullish as high-yielder tail risk pricing eased, taking us into a +1.1 Sharpe backdrop. ADDED: Bearish USD/CNH (tactical) – Onshore demand for dollars has faded, while the PBOC is allowing a managed appreciation in […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Changes ADDED: Bullish 10y CGB – Domestic inflation remains weak thanks to tepid credit growth despite higher energy prices allowing yields to move lower. ADDED: Bullish CHF/JPY – Given the rally in EUR/CHF, the likelihood of intervention has fallen. Meanwhile, the BoJ remains dovish, considering 8a […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Changes ADDED: Bullish Gold (short-term) – We flip our gold stance from bearish to bullish after a significant correction, $12bn in western ETF outflows, and signs of decoupling versus equities. ADDED: Bullish EUR/GBP – EUR/GBP is not currently correlated to energy prices and is at risk […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Changes ADDED: Bullish USD/CAD – Expected Fed-BoC rate differentials and weaker Canadian growth dynamics support upside toward 1.40. ADDED: Bearish 1y1y NZD vs. 1y1y EUR – Overly hawkish RBNZ pricing looks misaligned with soft growth, excess capacity, and limited inflation persistence. Recent Reports on Active Views […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Changes ADDED: Bullish AUD/CHF – AUD/CHF will continue to rise due to strong Aussie terms-of-trade and carry, combined with rising SNB intervention risks. ADDED: Bearish Gold (short-term) – stretched positioning, rising equity-like behaviour, and a hawkish central bank backdrop leave gold vulnerable to further downside. REMOVED […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Updates ADDED: Bullish AUD/JPY – AUD/JPY should rise in a higher energy price or higher risk asset environment due to its favourable carry characteristics. ADDED: Bullish BRL/JPY – Level of carry remains attractive, while Brazilian macro and politics are improving. ADDED: Bearish 2y UST vs. 2y […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Latest Updates ADDED: Bullish USD – Despite our bearish MT view, we believe there is room for a bounce given the Supreme Court may strike down tariffs and stronger data. REMOVED: Bullish US front end – Stronger US data may see short-end rates bounce back following equity […]
Viresh Kanabar
Current Views Please see our latest views below: Recent Notes and Updates FX Bullish EUR/USD – USD entering a multi-year downtrend driven by a rising current account deficit, increasing reliance on foreign asset demand, and lower policy rates. Bearish USD/CNH – Rate spreads moving in favour of lower USD/CNH, while recent fixes suggest PBOC may […]
Benjamin Ford
Summary The RBA remained on hold and removed its easing bias as inflation became the number one concern. Ahead, there are five key points: The RBA’s stance is clear. Recent inflation data warrants a more cautious posture. However, recent data suggests domestic demand is not growing at the same pace as earlier this year, while […]
Viresh Kanabar
Summary The BoJ maintained its policy rate today as expected. The BoJ still sees a sluggish growth outlook, while supply pressures stemming from higher food prices pushed 2025 inflation higher. Governor Ueda’s tone during the presser was dovish as he reiterated a US trade deal alone is insufficient to prompt a further hike. He also […]
Richard Jones
Summary USD/CAD is down for the sixth successive week, and for the eighth week in ten. The pair printed a new YTD low this week, where it currently trades. USD/CAD is approaching its 200-day moving average (DMA), very near 1.4000. Market Implications We think the 200-DMA should robustly support USD/CAD and with an RSI approaching […]
Richard Jones
Summary EUR/USD is up ~6% so far year-to-date (YTD). The pair hovers about one percentage point off its YTD high seen yesterday, having gained about 1.5% this week ahead of the US jobs report and Powell’s speech later today. Technicals show EUR/USD as overbought in the near-term, coinciding with CTAs ramping up EUR/USD long positioning. […]
Richard Jones
Summary On 14 February, the US Treasury (UST) 2-year, 10-year, and the 30-year yields were at ~4.30%, ~4.5% and 4.70%, respectively. Back then, we thought UST yields would trade within the YTD ranges established at that time. UST yields then plummeted to new YTD lows and have now bounced. Market Implications We think that there […]
Richard Jones
Summary The USD index (DXY) is rising this week, for only the second week in seven. DXY technicals were oversold, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has partly unwound. Room exists for RSIs to unwind slightly higher in the coming days. Long and short USD exposures are not crowded. This clean positioning means chances of […]
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