Viresh Kanabar
Summary Tensions between China and Japan escalated sharply following Prime Minister Takaichi’s comments that any attack on Taiwan could constitute “a situation threatening Japan’s survival’ which breaks historic norms by signalling Japan’s reaction function and could be interpreted as a legal mandate to intervene rather than just solidarity. China retaliated by curbing tourism to Japan, […]
Viresh Kanabar
In the global AI race, China is the clear second. Rather than a negative, this positively reflects China’s innovation speed and ecosystem development, unmatched by any country outside the US. Recently, AI has begun driving returns for China’s largest tech companies. Last week, Alibaba reported cloud business revenue growth of 26% YoY, well above consensus. […]
John Tierney
We are a week into December, and the holidays are tantalizingly close. Many people use this time to reflect on the year just gone. But for this Grey Swan, I want to fast-forward to December 2024. Imagine what we could be looking back on then… China’s Recovery Never Happened Entering 2Q 2024, it was becoming […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
The ongoing deflation in the price of US imports from China should moderate as it is based on sharp and unsustainable CNY weakening rather than on productivity gains. China’s influence on global export prices is set to weaken as the global trade system fragments and China’s role diminishes.
Henry Occleston, Ayra Khan
Cinema revenues are lagging the slower-than-expected recovery of the Chinese economy. However, the picture is much more positive for domestically produced Chinese films than others. There has been a concerted retrenchment from international films since 2019, which seems to be holding up.
Bilal Hafeez
Asia is the only region expected to see growth accelerate in 2023. It will likely sink in the US, Western Europe and EMEA from 2022 levels.
John Tierney
The iron ore rally has continued through the holidays as steel mills rebuild stocks in anticipation of renewed building activity in 2023.
Eric Zijdenbos
When Bilal kindly invited me to write ‘something black swan like’ for Macro Hive’s 2023 Grey Swan series, I first took a step back to define what a black swan actually means nowadays.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
To give a taste of how each team (and their country) will fare, we’ve asked our network for their views. We’ve asked people the following questions...
Bilal Hafeez
Many were looking for China’s 20th National Congress to mark the end of China’s zero-COVID policy (ZCP).
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new Journal of Economic Modelling paper develops a real-time monitoring system of macroeconomic prosperity, which it applies to China.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new NBER working paper, co-authored by prominent economist Ken Rogoff, highlights long-term imbalances in China’s real estate market.
Matthew Harris
Recent stimulus measures are struggling to support China’s slowing economy, raising growing doubts over their effectiveness.
John Tierney, Caroline Grady
Retail sales surprised on the downside – total sales were down -0.3% versus +0.1% consensus forecast. Ex autos, sales were up 0.5% versus 0.7% forecast.
Bilal Hafeez
China was originally held up as the success story for managing COVID. But two years on, Shanghai is locked down and Beijing is testing all its residents for COVID.
Caroline Grady
China’s pledge to support financial markets earlier this week triggered a sharp recovery in its distressed equity markets. Ongoing uncertainty over tech regulation, the latest...
Bilal Hafeez
Many investors confuse economic growth for likely stock market performance, especially for China. But China’s constitution...
Bilal Hafeez
Halloween is here, so I have put together nine scary charts. And I promise, no charts on COVID…
Bilal Hafeez
In this report, we standardise price changes across different markets to allow for cross-market comparisons...
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