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The COVID pandemic has shown how important it is to prepare for extreme events. Even if you don’t get them spot on, at least you had stretched your mind to think that strange things could happen. So, we’ve stretched our minds to pick potential low probably, high impact events that few expect for the upcoming year. This year, we have identified ten, ranging from US bond yields in negative territory, a united America, global carbon taxes and confirmation of alien life.
We hope you enjoy them!
2021 Grey Swan #1: US Yields Go Negative (2 min read)
My four scenarios for a major rally in US bonds into negative territory.
2021 Grey Swan #2: FX Volatility Spikes (2 min read)
Markets veteran, Karl Massey, writes on why the policy response to COVID could trigger a surge in currency volatility.
2021 Grey Swan #3: Biden Gets A Clean Sweep (2 min read)
John Tierney writes on the market impact of a Democratic Senate sweep.
2021 Grey Swan #4: Biden Unites The States Of America (3 min read)
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut gives her futuristic take on a post-COVID, united America.
2021 Grey Swan #5: Central Bankers’ Prayers Are Answered: Inflation Surges (2 min read)
What could finally trigger a surge in inflation and what would it mean for the markets. John Butler gives his take.
2021 Grey Swan #6: US and China Go to War Over Taiwan (2 min read)
I lay out possible triggers of a full-scale war between China and the US, and the resulting market impact.
2021 Grey Swan #7: HKD Peg Breaks the Lower Band (1 min read)
CBDC expansion could mean repegging the HKD to CNH, writes Anton Tonev.
2021 Grey Swan #8: China’s CBDC First-Mover Advantage Weakens Dollar Dominance (3 min read)
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut offers an alternative take on China’s CBDC experiment and what it means for the USD.
2021 Grey Swan #9: Globalisation of Carbon Taxes (2 min read)
Will climate risks come back to the fore in 2021, Karl Massey maps out one scenario.
2021 Grey Swan #10: The Year We Finally Knew We Were Not Alone (4 min read)
Thorsten Wegener imagines a year with confirmation of intelligent life outside our solar system, and the impact on society and markets.
2021 Grey Swan #11: Unexpected UK Outperformance (3 min read)
With Brexit talks going ‘the extra mile’ we feature a bonus Grey Swan on the potential for UK outperformance from Ken Dickson. He highlights several reasons to be cheerful and reminds us that UK assets are cheap.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)