Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary US CPI aligned with expectations. Goods continued deflating, housing accelerated, and supercore inflation slowed. Trend measures show inflation becoming stickier. Market Implications I still expect the Fed to cut 25bp in December, aligning with markets pricing 80% risk. I expect the Fed to remain on hold in 2025, against markets pricing about two cuts. […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The immigration surge has been the main driver of the recent episode of disinflation with above trend growth. With the immigration surge over, GDP growth is likely to slow about 0.75 ppt over the next 12 months, wage growth will remain stuck around its current level and cost pressures will continue. Demand pressures, as […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary On the eve of election day, betting markets and polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and presidential candidate Donald Trump neck and neck. The Harris campaign has greatly outraised the Trump campaign, and the former has a much larger cash balance to spend on the last few weeks of the campaign, which could bring […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary NFP printed at 12k, below 100k consensus. The low print reflects mainly the impact of strikes and lower immigration, and to a lesser extent the hurricanes. The labour market remained tight and wage growth accelerated. Wage growth is likely to remain sticky as the immigration surge is over and union militancy seems stronger than […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The Fed will likely cut 25bp next week and keep a hawkish tone. Since Chair Jerome Powell turned more hawkish in late September, growth and labour market data have supported this shift. Inflation data is likely to remain within the Fed’s comfort zone until end-2024. The Fed believes its policy stance is restrictive, but […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary We travel into the future and publish a policy letter from the Treasury Secretary nominee to President-elect Donald Trump arguing that: Inflation should be kept below 3% through: Keeping policy changes simple and predictable. No increase in the budget deficit. Strong competition policy. Letting the Fed be the Fed. Productivity should be raised through […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Despite continuing to outraise presidential candidate Donald Trump by a wide margin, Vice President Kamala Harris has lost her lead. The odds of a Republican sweep have surged, in line with better presidential and Congressional Republican polling. Market Implications I still expect the Fed to cut two more times in 2024 but 2025 is […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Unemployment has been increasing for the past 1.5 years, triggering Sahm’s rule. But Sahm’s rule is more a statistical regularity than a predictive model of recession. With other labour market indicators and aggregate demand data pointing at expansion, the US economy is not headed for recession. Market Implications We are short 10Y and 30Y […]
Antonio Del Favero
Summary US monetary policy (MP) does not look that restrictive, and financial conditions (FCs) are supporting labour market and economic growth. While the mistakes of the great inflation have been avoided, core inflation will struggle to return to target. The Fed and markets are still too optimistic about cuts. The election outcome could just mean […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary A bottom-up assessment of monetary policy transmission suggests policy fine-tuning would be difficult. Residential investment is the demand component most responsive to funding costs but accounts for only 3.5% of GDP. The Fed impacts consumption, which accounts for 70% of GDP, mainly through equity and home prices rather than through funding costs. Non-residential investment […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Core and headline CPI were above market expectations. OER inflation slowed but core goods and supercore services inflation accelerated. Nevertheless, the disinflation trend continued. Market Implications I still expect the Fed to cut twice more in 2024. Another Upside Surprise September core and headline CPI prints surprised on the upside, as Sam’s model predicted […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary A soft landing appears less likely now than in the mid-1990s as: This time the output gap is positive against negative in the 1990s. The Federal Reserve (Fed) was much more proactive in the 1990s. The Fed has tightened more but policy transmission has been weaker this time. Deglobalization, worker power, and fiscal policy […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary NFPs again surprised on the upside by a wide margin. The release details show the labour market tightened in September. This may reflect the end of the 2022-24 immigration surge that allowed for disinflation with strong growth. Ahead, the Fed could start facing the traditional employment vs inflation trade-off. Market Implications I still expect […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary US dockworkers in ports accounting for 60% of maritime freight have gone on strike. The impact on growth and inflation is likely to be limited as any deep disruption would likely see the Biden administration intervene. Market Implications I still expect two more 25bp Federal Funds Rate (FFR) cuts in 2024. Dockworkers on Strike […]
Macro Hive
Summary A Republican sweep (red WH and Congress) could result in stagflation and force the Fed to hike. Meanwhile, a Democratic sweep (blue WH and Congress) would likely align with the Fed’s current projections. Market Implications A Trump victory would likely lead to bear steepening in the yield curve, and a stronger USD especially vs […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary Vice President Kamala Harris is struggling to widen her small lead over presidential nominee Donald Trump but continues to outraise him. Should Harris win, pollsters expect a red Congress while betting markets see a blue or split Congress as most likely. Market Implications I still expect the Fed to cut two more times in […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) can declare a recession even without two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, a common definition. The economic indicators the NBER uses to identify recession clearly signal the economy is currently expanding. Leading indicators do not suggest a forthcoming recession though their track record is mixed. Market Implications […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The Fed has cut 50bp and lowered the FFR path despite risks of inflation stickiness. The Fed move shows strong sensitivity to employment data. The Fed is likely to cut sooner and more if NFP and unemployment are weaker than it expects but may not react to weaker NFPs if they are accompanied by […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The FOMC cut more than consensus expected but roughly aligned with my expectations. The recent non-farm payroll (NFP) slowdown and buildup of policy ammunition mainly drove yesterday’s decision, thanks to the Federal Reserve (Fed’s) so far patient attitude towards easing. The Fed is likely to bring forward its planned easing if employment risks increase […]
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