Phil Suttle

Macro Hive Author

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SPECIALITY: Economics, Global Macro,

Phil Suttle is the founder and principal of Suttle Economics.


In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The US Inflation Outlook: More Than a Bulge

April 22, 2021

Summary Many expect the US inflation recovery from a COVID slump to continue in coming months. The consensus (and Fed view) is…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities ESG & Climate Change US

An Invisible Hand for an Inconvenient Truth

January 25, 2021

Summary The global political tide is turning towards the increased use of carbon pricing. The price mechanism is the proven, trusted way…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Economic Growth Europe Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics UK

The Sick Man of Europe

January 14, 2021

Summary UK relative economic performance has been very weak since the 2016 Brexit vote. Brexit’s arrival is unlikely to reverse this trend,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Commodities Economic Growth Fiscal Policy & Inequality

China’s Economy In The 2020s

November 12, 2020

Summary China’s latest five-year plan is under development; these plans are relevant to investors. The growth target is likely to be 5-6%…

Digital Currencies

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bitcoin & Crypto China Politics & Geopolitics

Digital Currencies, Take Three

October 26, 2020

The 2020 focus has been bitcoin’s rebound and efforts to develop CBDCs In the middle, the Facebook-led effort to promote stablecoins has…

In: Hive Exclusives | Global Monetary Policy & Inflation

DM Monetary Policy Options Heading Into 2021

October 06, 2020

Summary DM monetary policy was more stable in Q3 than 2020H1; balance sheet expansion slowed. If further support is needed heading into…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID Economic Growth EM FX

COVID-19 World Trade Damage To Services

September 14, 2020

The response of global goods trade to the Covid-19 crisis has been relatively benign Chinese exports have recovered; the country is leading…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global Monetary Policy & Inflation

The Inflation Outlook In A Post-Covid World

August 20, 2020

• Global inflation fell sharply in the early months of the Covid-19 crisis, mainly because of oil • Core inflation fell most…

COVID Fragile 5

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds COVID EM Fiscal Policy & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation

The C-19 Crisis And The Fragile-5

July 21, 2020

The Fragile-5 recovered quickly from the capital flow shock in March, and rates have fallenThe yield decline reflects a steep markdown in…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality Politics & Geopolitics US

Economic Policy Changes Under Biden

June 29, 2020

The odds of a Democrat sweep in November have recently risen from 35% to about 60%. A Biden presidency would warrant lower equity prices…

US Growth Forecast

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality US

A New US Economic Forecast

April 16, 2020

US forecasts—my own included—have shifted to project a 30%+, saar, slump in Q2. Such an extreme decline implies an awful April…

Investor Cartoon

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Global Labour Market & Inequality

Global Growth Is Starting To Pick Up

January 09, 2020

A tentative uptick in some cyclical indicators confirms our view that global economic growth will accelerate through the first half of this year…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

US Inflation To Head Higher In 2020

November 21, 2019

In 2019 market participants have viewed moves in inflation asymmetrically. Phases of decline, although largely noise, they treated as concerning – thinking that perhaps it’s a slide into deflation (an unlikely event historically). ..

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality Politics & Geopolitics US

The Trump Presidency: An Economic Report Card

October 03, 2019

To say that Donald Trump’s unusual leadership style has been deeply polarizing is an understatement. He is the only President in US…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation US

US Set for Japanification?

September 26, 2019

The path of US interest rates has reversed sharply this year, leading to legitimate concern over whether the US is destined for Japanification. Japanese…

Fed Flag

In: Hive Exclusives | US

The Fed’s Upcoming Blunder

July 18, 2019

What a difference seven months makes. At the end of November 2018, financial markets priced the Fed funds rate (then 2.2%) to end 2020 at about 2.7%…

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