If you would like to connect and contact the author,Phil Suttle is the founder and principal of Suttle Economics.
In: Hive Exclusives | ESG & Climate Change
Summary The global political tide is turning towards the increased use of carbon pricing. The price mechanism is the proven, trusted way…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics UK
Summary UK relative economic performance has been very weak since the 2016 Brexit vote. Brexit’s arrival is unlikely to reverse this trend,…
In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Economics
Summary China’s latest five-year plan is under development; these plans are relevant to investors. The growth target is likely to be 5-6%…
In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology China & Hong Kong
The 2020 focus has been bitcoin’s rebound and efforts to develop CBDCs In the middle, the Facebook-led effort to promote stablecoins has…
In: Hive Exclusives | Global Macro Monetary Policy & Inflation
Summary DM monetary policy was more stable in Q3 than 2020H1; balance sheet expansion slowed. If further support is needed heading into…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Emerging Markets
The response of global goods trade to the Covid-19 crisis has been relatively benign Chinese exports have recovered; the country is leading…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Emerging Markets Monetary Policy & Inflation
• Global inflation fell sharply in the early months of the Covid-19 crisis, mainly because of oil • Core inflation fell most…
In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Emerging Markets
The Fragile-5 recovered quickly from the capital flow shock in March, and rates have fallenThe yield decline reflects a steep markdown in…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Geopolitics US
The odds of a Democrat sweep in November have recently risen from 35% to about 60%. A Biden presidency would warrant lower equity prices…
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Growth & Labour Market US
US forecasts—my own included—have shifted to project a 30%+, saar, slump in Q2. Such an extreme decline implies an awful April…
In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Economics Growth & Labour Market
A tentative uptick in some cyclical indicators confirms our view that global economic growth will accelerate through the first half of this year…
In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US
In 2019 market participants have viewed moves in inflation asymmetrically. Phases of decline, although largely noise, they treated as concerning – thinking that perhaps it’s a slide into deflation (an unlikely event historically). ..
In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market US
To say that Donald Trump’s unusual leadership style has been deeply polarizing is an understatement. He is the only President in US…
In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Growth Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US
The path of US interest rates has reversed sharply this year, leading to legitimate concern over whether the US is destined for Japanification. Japanese…
In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US
What a difference seven months makes. At the end of November 2018, financial markets priced the Fed funds rate (then 2.2%) to end 2020 at about 2.7%…
