Phil Suttle

Macro Hive Author

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please email [email protected]
SPECIALITY: Economics, Global Macro,

Phil Suttle is the founder and principal of Suttle Economics.

MY ARTICLES


  • In: Hive Exclusives | Global Macro Monetary Policy & Inflation

    DM Monetary Policy Options Heading Into 2021

    October 06, 2020

    Summary DM monetary policy was more stable in Q3 than 2020H1; balance sheet expansion slowed. If further support is needed heading into…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Emerging Markets

    COVID-19 World Trade Damage To Services

    September 14, 2020

    The response of global goods trade to the Covid-19 crisis has been relatively benign Chinese exports have recovered; the country is leading…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Emerging Markets Monetary Policy & Inflation

    The Inflation Outlook In A Post-Covid World

    August 20, 2020

    • Global inflation fell sharply in the early months of the Covid-19 crisis, mainly because of oil • Core inflation fell most…

  • COVID Fragile 5

    In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Emerging Markets

    The C-19 Crisis And The Fragile-5

    July 21, 2020

    The Fragile-5 recovered quickly from the capital flow shock in March, and rates have fallenThe yield decline reflects a steep markdown in…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Geopolitics US

    Economic Policy Changes Under Biden

    June 29, 2020

    The odds of a Democrat sweep in November have recently risen from 35% to about 60%. A Biden presidency would warrant lower equity prices…

  • US Growth Forecast

    In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Growth & Labour Market US

    A New US Economic Forecast

    April 16, 2020

    US forecasts—my own included—have shifted to project a 30%+, saar, slump in Q2. Such an extreme decline implies an awful April…

  • Investor Cartoon

    In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Economics Growth & Labour Market

    Global Growth Is Starting To Pick Up

    January 09, 2020

    A tentative uptick in some cyclical indicators confirms our view that global economic growth will accelerate through the first half of this year…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

    US Inflation To Head Higher In 2020

    November 21, 2019

    In 2019 market participants have viewed moves in inflation asymmetrically. Phases of decline, although largely noise, they treated as concerning – thinking that perhaps it’s a slide into deflation (an unlikely event historically). ..

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market US

    The Trump Presidency: An Economic Report Card

    October 03, 2019

    To say that Donald Trump’s unusual leadership style has been deeply polarizing is an understatement. He is the only President in US…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Growth Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    US Set for Japanification?

    September 26, 2019

    The path of US interest rates has reversed sharply this year, leading to legitimate concern over whether the US is destined for Japanification. Japanese…

  • Fed Flag

    In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

    The Fed’s Upcoming Blunder

    July 18, 2019

    What a difference seven months makes. At the end of November 2018, financial markets priced the Fed funds rate (then 2.2%) to end 2020 at about 2.7%…

  • In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Emerging Markets

    COVID-19 World Trade Damage To Services

    September 14, 2020

    The response of global goods trade to the Covid-19 crisis has been relatively benign Chinese exports have recovered; the country is leading…

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