James Leitner

Macro Hive Author

SPECIALITY:

James Leitner serves as President of Falcon Management Corporation, a family office. Jim is on the Yale President’s Council on International Activities and formerly served on the Yale Investment Committee (2004 – 2010) and Yale Honorary Degree Committee (2001- 2004).

MY ARTICLES

In: Hive Exclusives | Hive Life Specials

Podcast Transcript: Professor Adrian Williams on Everything You Wanted to Know About Sleep

June 11, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Dr. Adrian Williams, the UK’s first Professor of Sleep Medicine. This was our…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

June 10, 2021

The Return of the Finance Threat? (Project Syndicate, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

June 10, 2021

The Benefits of Setting a Lower Limit on Corporate Taxation (IMF Blog, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

June 10, 2021

The Real Effects of Zombie Lending in Europe(Bank Underground, 6 min read) Hawks, doves and green swans (OMFIF, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour market US

Slower Recovery Not Yet Fully Priced In

June 10, 2021

Summary Labour shortages are unlikely to improve until autumn. Despite this, unusually strong productivity growth could make the consensus 2021 growth forecast…

In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Equities

We Still Like Our (Underwater) Positions!

June 10, 2021

Summary We review the performance of recent investment positions and update our views. In recent months, equities have traded in a narrow…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

June 09, 2021

The Internal Capital Markets of Global Dealer Banks (FED, 26 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

June 09, 2021

Money, technology and banking: what lessons can China teach the rest of the world? (BIS, 30 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

June 09, 2021

New forms of digital money (Bank of England, 30 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

June 09, 2021

Are Climate Change Policies Politically Costly? (IMF, 22 page read)

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

US Dips Below Global Average on Vaccination Rates

June 09, 2021

In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. On the details: Global Outlook: This week, an average of 34.5mn…

In: Deep Dives | Economics

The End of Financial Districts?

June 09, 2021

Summary Stanford University researchers quantify Covid-19’s effects on real estate markets within and across US cities. They find real estate demand has…

In: Hive Exclusives | Global Macro

What Are Box Offices Telling Us About the Re-Opening?

June 08, 2021

After COVID lockdowns, the true test of a country’s re-opening is how willing movie-lovers are to return to the cinema. After all,…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

June 08, 2021

Accelerating Global Britain (Project Syndicate, 4 min read) Key reports illustrate economic recovery in the US and Europe (Invesco, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

June 08, 2021

What to Look for in the May Consumer Price Index (CEPR, 1 min read) Revisiting the New Keynesian policy paradoxes under QE…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

June 07, 2021

Food (in)security: A potentially underrated collateral damage of the pandemic (VoxEU, 5 min read) Moralising foreign policy is doomed to failure (OMFIF,…

In: Hive Exclusives | China

India’s Economy Gets Back on Track

June 07, 2021

Summary Mobility restrictions in India are beginning to ease with daily COVID cases down sharply from earlier highs. Vaccine rollout remains modest…

In: Hive Exclusives | Specials US

A Real Black Swan: Official Recognition of UFOs (and Aliens)?

June 04, 2021

Summary US officials will soon release their findings on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) or more colloquially UFOs. The existence of UFOs will…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities

Rate-Sensitive Equities Nervously Await the Next Treasury Yield Move

June 04, 2021

Summary Equities and bond markets have been range-bound and quiescent for weeks now. But investors may not fully appreciate how much interest…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Growth & Labour Market

Homebuilders Are in A Sweet Spot

June 03, 2021

Summary The latest housing data shows homebuilders struggling to build houses fast enough – and consequently home prices are soaring. Demand comes…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics UK

Podcast Transcript: Former UK Chancellor Sajid Javid On Inflation, Climate Change and Post-Brexit Britain

June 03, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with former UK Chancellor Sajid Javid. We discussed the UK response to the pandemic,…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

June 02, 2021

High-Frequency Estimates of the Natural Real Rate and Inflation Expectations (FED, 25 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

June 02, 2021

Euro area sovereign bond risk premia during the Covid-19 pandemic (ECB, 34 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

June 02, 2021

The pricing of carbon risk in syndicated loans: which risks are priced and why? (BIS, 24 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Be Careful, Inflation Expectations Are Unanchored!

June 02, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper shows that existing US surveys of professional forecasters and households poorly proxy firms’ inflation expectations. Their…

In: Hive Exclusives | Global

2H Outlook: The Pause That Refreshes

June 01, 2021

As we approach midyear, Covid Speed’s breakneck pace seems to have slowed. Cross-asset markets have paused, with stable stocks, bonds, and FX…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

June 01, 2021

A Global Incentive to Reduce Emissions (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

June 01, 2021

Emerging Markets Through the Looking Glass: Signs of Growth Potential Post‑Pandemic (PIMCO, 3 min read) Re-evaluating the sources of the recent productivity…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

June 01, 2021

China’s Demographic Crisis (CEPR, 3 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Transcript: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on US Labour Supply, Inflation and Timing the Bond Sell-Off

June 01, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, who has worked at Bridgewater, Barclays, RBS, the New York Fed,…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

May 28, 2021

Greater EU fiscal powers will boost pandemic recovery (OMFIF, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

May 28, 2021

Who Benefited from PPP Loans by Fintech Lenders? (Liberty Street Economics, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

May 28, 2021

Does deglobalisation make economies more resilient to recessions? (Bank Underground, 6 min read) Europe’s Strategic Autonomy Trap (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities

Time to Fade That Great Bank Rally

May 28, 2021

Summary Financials, and banks particularly, soared after the US election, gaining a whopping 75% versus 47% for the S&P 500. Gains have…

In: Hive Exclusives | China Economic Growth

China’s Delicate Deleveraging Efforts

May 28, 2021

Summary China’s efforts to reduce financial vulnerabilities continue with measures against speculation in real estate, commodities, crypto and overall credit growth. With…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Economic Growth

East Asian Economies Benefit Most From the US Recovery

May 27, 2021

Summary The US trade deficit has nearly doubled since the start of the pandemic, though this partly reflects gold imports that are…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID

US Vaccination Rates Reach Three-Month Low

May 26, 2021

In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. On the details: Global Outlook: This week, an average of 28.1mn…

In: Deep Dives | Global

How Have Global Capital Flows Changed?

May 26, 2021

Summary A new BIS working paper explains how trends in capital flows have changed since the GFC. It highlights a decline in…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities

Precious Metals Poised for a Historic Rally

May 25, 2021

Summary Multiple fundamental factors are coming together to spark a massive rally in Gold and Silver. We look at current conditions, and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Transcript: Phil Suttle on Coming High Inflation, Goods Recessions and Fed in Play

May 25, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Phil Suttle who runs his own economic research outfit. Before that he…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Economic Growth

Water Shortages, Not COVID, Could Derail Taiwan’s Economy

May 24, 2021

Summary Taiwan’s earlier success in containing COVID has crumbled with new cases soaring. New mobility restrictions combined with very slow vaccine rollout…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities

Global Commodities: Fresh Highs, Yet Signs of Initial Consolidation

May 21, 2021

Summary Global commodity prices are still rising. Iron ore and the BDI have seen minor consolidation. Chinese credit conditions and trade disputes…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

Follow the Money, Buy Stocks

May 20, 2021

Summary Fed asset purchases have led to a $3.4tn increase in banks’ assets, but more than 90% of this increase has comprised…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Economic Growth Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation

Markets at a Crossroad (as Always!)

May 20, 2021

Summary Equity markets fear inflation, while bond markets seem nonchalant. Prominent economists either criticize or praise the Fed. Everyone is unmoored, with…

In: Hive Exclusives | China COVID

China Accounts for More than Half of Global Vaccinations

May 19, 2021

In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. This week, we’ve included data from a YouGov survey on the…

In: Deep Dives | Economic Growth

Friedman’s Plucking Model Is Back in Vogue, and Rightly So!

May 19, 2021

Summary Modern macroeconomic theory assumes a symmetric business cycle in which economic variables, like GDP and unemployment, fluctuate around a ‘natural rate’.…

In: Hive Exclusives | Real Estate UK

Housing and Rental Prices to Rise on UK’s Pandemic Exit

May 18, 2021

Summary Average asking prices rose 1.8% on last month, 2.5 times higher than the average May increase over the last decade. Realtors…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto

Bitcoin Is Not an Inflation Hedge

May 17, 2021

If there was a moment for Bitcoin to showcase its inflation-hedging capabilities, it would have been last week. April inflation data for…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Politics & Geopolitics

Podcast Transcript: Wolfgang Münchau on Germany’s Political Risks, Fiscal Stimulus and Euro Instability

May 17, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Wolfgang Münchau, co-founder and director of Eurointelligence. We discussed German politics, the…

In: Hive Exclusives | ESG & Climate Change

If ESG Investing Feels Good…Do It!

May 14, 2021

Summary ESG investing is the hot new concept in asset management. But there is little convincing evidence that it makes a difference.…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities

Commodities Are the Boss

May 14, 2021

Summary Commodities continue to rise and we have added commodity exposure across both debt and equity. Our expectation for a multi-year global…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Far Too Soon to Lift the Dots

May 13, 2021

Summary Markets reacted to the very large CPI surprise by pricing a higher policy rate trajectory and selling equities and bonds. I…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Europe

Europe Overtakes UK, US On Vaccination Rates

May 12, 2021

In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. This week, we’ve included China into our table, broken US and…

In: Deep Dives | Bonds Economic Growth US

Predicting Economic Downturns Using US Treasury Futures

May 12, 2021

Summary A new Journal of Financial Economics paper finds that the implied volatility from options on five-year Treasury note futures can predict…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

A Good NFP for the Fed

May 10, 2021

Summary As I expected, NFP surprised on the negative side largely due to a lack of available labour. This was shown by…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Transcript: Jeff Snider on Deflation, Central Bank Failure, and Understanding Money

May 07, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners. We…

GDP Consensus

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds

An Autumn Bond Selloff?

May 06, 2021

Summary The spread between real yields and real GDP is at its widest ever. This reflects mainly stable inflation against expectations of…

In: Deep Dives | COVID

Will Working From Home Outlast the Pandemic?

May 05, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper examines the latest survey data to see if working from home will outlive Covid. They find…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID UK

Weekly Vaccination Update: The UK Reaches a Pivotal Mark

May 05, 2021

In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. On the details: Global Outlook (Charts 1 & 2, Tables 1):…

In: Hive Exclusives | EM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Transcript: Boris Vladimirov on Inflation Permanence, European Banks and BRICS Outlook

May 04, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Boris Vladimirov, who is a MD at Goldman and before that partner…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

How Inflation Drivers Are Changing

May 04, 2021

Summary Inflation across G4 countries is tied to a common ‘global component’ that includes commodity prices, world trade and demand in major…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds EEMEA ESG & Climate Change Europe

How EU Climate Policy Is Pressuring South Africa’s Economy & Bond Market

April 30, 2021

Summary South Africa’s high GHG emissions leave its economy and bond market vulnerable.Forthcoming EU rules on disclosing portfolio carbon intensity accelerate the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds

High Yield Floating On Declining VIX And Low Defaults

April 29, 2021

Summary The VIX volatility index is finally dropping into the teens, signalling potentially more tightening of high yield spreads from already decade-long…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth US

Consensus Overestimates 2021 US Growth

April 29, 2021

Summary The pandemic is no longer the main source of uncertainty to the US outlook since the vaccines used there are proving…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID US

Weekly Vaccination Update: US Vaccination Rates Face Largest Setback Yet

April 28, 2021

In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. On the details: Global Outlook (Charts 1 & 2, Tables 1):…

In: Deep Dives | Credit

How Costly Are Contractions In Bank Credit?

April 28, 2021

Summary A new IMF working paper examines the importance of bank lending in periods of economic expansion and assesses how a lack…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

April 27, 2021

Decomposing changes in the functioning of the sterling repo market from 2014 to 2018 (Bank Underground, 10 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

April 27, 2021

Building financial resilience in small island states (OMFIF, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

April 27, 2021

There Will Be Boondoggles (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

April 27, 2021

Migration can play a role in the post-pandemic reboot of global trade (VoxEU, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID

India’s Local Lockdowns Trigger a Sharp Slowdown in Mobility

April 27, 2021

Summary Mobility declines as India imposes increasing restrictions to curb the escalating COVID crisis. India’s reported deaths look oddly low given countries…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

FOMC Preview: All About Taper Timing

April 27, 2021

Summary Market focus ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is the timing of taper. No details are expected yet with the focus instead…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Can Demand-Side Policies Push Productivity? Policymakers Will Try

April 26, 2021

Summary Policymakers are beginning to wonder whether demand-side policies can positively effect productivity. Yellen commented five years ago that policymakers may want…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities

Why Growth Stocks Are Looking Good Again

April 26, 2021

Summary In equity markets, the 2021 storylines have been large caps versus smaller caps and growth versus value. After enjoying mega-rallies, growth…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Politics & Geopolitics US

Worrying About Biden’s Capital Gains Tax Headline? Don’t!

April 23, 2021

Summary Based on the headline, well under 1% of taxpayers could be subject to a higher capital gains tax. The super wealthy…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Equities

Running Fast Just to Stand Still

April 23, 2021

Summary The Covid speed model is a go-to for understanding the accelerating pace of change in markets. So far markets have discounted…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Global

More Fiscal, Less Money: The Forthcoming Rebalancing of the Global Policy Mix

April 22, 2021

Summary The IMF expects strong fiscal consolidation in 2022. This seems unrealistic because economic normalization appears unlikely until well into 2022 outside…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The US Inflation Outlook: More Than a Bulge

April 22, 2021

Summary Many expect the US inflation recovery from a COVID slump to continue in coming months. The consensus (and Fed view) is…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID

Weekly Vaccination Update: Global Vaccinations Fall

April 21, 2021

In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. This week, we’ve added the Q2 supply schedule for EU member…

In: Deep Dives | Europe

Who Will Be Europe’s Biggest Carbon Tax Loser?

April 21, 2021

Summary A $75 carbon tax could affect up to 150,000 manufacturing jobs in the largest EU countries. The jobs could either be…

In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation

ECB Preview: Biding Time Until June

April 20, 2021

Summary Thursday’s ECB meeting is unlikely to see any policy shift. The Governing Council will likely reaffirm increased PEPP purchases through Q2…

In: Hive Exclusives | China Europe Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Podcast Transcript: Bobby Vedral on Taxing Big Tech, Europe’s Edge, and Biden’s China Policy

April 20, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Bobby Vedral, partner and portfolio manager at Toscafund Asset Management. We discussed…

In: Hive Exclusives | EEMEA

Russia Sanctions: The Shock That Never Came

April 16, 2021

Summary US sanctions barring entities from participating in Russia’s primary debt markets are likely to have limited market impact. Sanctions were already…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality

Israel – Reopening Less Rosy Than It Looks

April 16, 2021

Summary Mobility and service sector activity are bouncing back in Israel as the high vaccination rate allows rapid reopening. Output is expected…

In: Hive Exclusives | China Monetary Policy & Inflation

China Unlikely to Export Inflation

April 15, 2021

Summary Chinese exporters are experiencing cost pressures but seem unable to pass them on to their customers. Chinese exporters’ lack of pricing…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities

Infrastructure Is a Patient Trade

April 15, 2021

Summary Clean energy and electric vehicle ETFs took a big hit in February and March when rising rates sparked a rotation out…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Credit Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Transcript: David Riley On US Debt Sustainability, the Reflation Trade and Corporate Defaults

April 15, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with David Riley, Partner and Chief Investment Strategist of BlueBay Asset management. We…

In: Deep Dives | Global

Can Optimised Portfolios Deliver What They Promise?

April 14, 2021

Summary A new Review of Financial Studies paper examines the pitfalls of mean-variance portfolio optimisation. It finds that historical sample moments are…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Europe

Weekly Vaccination Update: J&J Pause and EU Supply Schedule

April 14, 2021

In this prime tracker, we review the latest vaccine developments globally. This week, we’ve added some brief commentary on the Johnson &…

In: Hive Exclusives | China

Five Things You Did Not Know About China

April 13, 2021

China is a global economic superpower, yet much remains unknown about its economy. Here are five insights that stand out for me:…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities

Equity and Risk Markets: The Song Remains the Same

April 12, 2021

Summary Markets have pricked asset bubbles. It is hard to see any super-inflated public market pricing. Expect the US inflation bump to…

In: Hive Exclusives | Credit

Rate Risk: An Issue for Investment Grade but Not High Yield

April 09, 2021

Summary With many investors worried about the prospect of rising rates, we review the historical relationship between Treasury returns and investment-grade and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation

PPI Surge Unlikely to Impact CPI

April 08, 2021

Summary The recent pick up in PPI will likely be absorbed through productivity gains and stagnant wages rather than higher CPI inflation.…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities FX

Podcast Transcript: Benn Eifert On Retail Options Boom, Over-Complex Derivatives, and Managing Tail Risk

April 08, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Benn Eifert, managing member and CIO of QVR. We talked derivatives post…

In: Deep Dives | Commodities Economic Growth

How Commodity Prices Can Predict Banking Crises

April 07, 2021

Summary A new Journal of International Economics paper explores the link between commodity prices and financial stability in low-income countries. It finds…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID

Weekly Vaccination Update: Vaccination Rates Higher in DM Countries

April 07, 2021

In this prime tracker, we will keep you up-to-date with the latest developments globally. This week, we’ve added infographics to the table,…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

April 06, 2021

The Roots of the EU’s Vaccine Debacle (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

April 06, 2021

How Rising Interest Rates Could Affect Emerging Markets (IMF Blog, 5 min read) Do People View Housing as a Good Investment and…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

April 06, 2021

Quantitative easing in emerging market economies: Benefits, risks, and limitations (VoxEU, 9 min read)      

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities

How To Be A Successful Thematic Investor

April 06, 2021

Summary With the rise of funds like ARK Innovation, thematic investing is becoming more popular The Tri-Polar World and Global Risk Nexus…

Central Banks

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Monetary Policy & Inflation

CAD, GBP Curves Could Be Mispriced

April 01, 2021

Summary The Fed, BoE, BoC and RBA’s benign neglect of steeper curves likely reflects growth expectations that could prove optimistic in the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Credit

High-Yield Credit Is Still a Buy

April 01, 2021

Summary High-yield spreads were surprisingly muted during the past month’s volatility. We see this indicating the underlying strong fundamentals and look for…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China FX

Global Growth Rotation – A Positive for Asia

April 01, 2021

Summary A global growth rotation from China to the US this year leaves downside risks for the rest of Asia given trade…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Weekly Vaccination Update

March 31, 2021

In this prime tracker, we will keep you up-to-date with the latest developments globally. This week, we’ve added some charts on Israel,…

In: Deep Dives | Real Estate

Can Big Data Help Forecast House Prices?

March 31, 2021

Summary One of big data’s many benefits is that it can supplement lower-frequency macroeconomic data with daily series across a wide range…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

March 30, 2021

How Japan can escape financial socialism (OMFIF, 4 min read)           

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

March 30, 2021

Confronting the Hazards of Rising Leverage (IMF Blog, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

March 30, 2021

Who Pays What First? Debt Prioritization during the COVID Pandemic (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | ESG & Climate Change

Podcast Transcript: Marco Monroy On Carbon Taxes, ESG Investing and Maradona

March 30, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Marco Monroy, Founder and CEO of MGM Innova Group. He discussed climate…

In: Hive Exclusives | China FX

CNY NEERing the End

March 26, 2021

Summary After a brief run at 6.40 in February, USD/CNY has pulled back and is now roughly unchanged on a YTD basis.…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto

Podcast Transcript: Zac Prince on Earning Interest on Bitcoin and the Future of Crypto Finance

March 26, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Zac Prince, where we discussed uses of crypto, defi, hedging and regulatory…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

March 25, 2021

Biden’s Sensible Stimulus (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

March 25, 2021

Inflation primed to return (OMFIF, 4 min read)      

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

March 25, 2021

Global pricing of carbon-transition risk (VoxEU, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

March 25, 2021

Bond markets are shrugging off inflation fears, but what do they know that we don’t? (PIIE, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities

Housing Equities: A Better Trading Vehicle Than Buy-and-Hold Investment

March 25, 2021

Summary Home sales dropped sharply in February largely due to weather, but we think there is more to it. Housing sales are…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

March 24, 2021

Asset managers, market liquidity and bank regulation (BIS, 22 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

March 24, 2021

Tax Evasion at the Top of the Income Distribution: Theory and Evidence (NBER, 50 page read) Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century:…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Equities

Window Opens to Reset Russell 2000 Positions

March 24, 2021

After Tuesday’s selloff the Russell 2000 (RTY) has given up much of its year-to-date gains over the S&P 500 (Chart 1). In…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Weekly Vaccination Update

March 24, 2021

In this prime tracker, we will keep you up-to-date with the latest vaccination developments globally. This week, we’ve added Thailand to the…

In: Deep Dives | ESG & Climate Change

How Valuable Is ‘Green’ Investment?

March 24, 2021

Summary Every dollar spent on carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities generates over a dollar’s worth of economic activity, finds a new IMF working…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

March 23, 2021

Market liquidity of European sovereign bonds during the Covid-19 crisis (VoxEU, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

March 23, 2021

China’s Accelerating Fertility Crisis (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

March 23, 2021

Big Tech looks to opportunities in Asia (OMFIF, 2 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

March 23, 2021

The Persistent Compression of the Breakeven Inflation Curve(Liberty Street Economics, 4 min read)      

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Transcript: James Aitken On Stock Vigilantes, Yield Curve Control and Inflation Paths

March 23, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with James Aitken, who gave his views on portfolio hedging, stock vigilantes, inflation,…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

March 22, 2021

Treasury must call the shots on US foreign policy exchange (OMFIF, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

March 22, 2021

How inflation expectations affect households' spending decisions (VoxEU, 4 min read)      

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

March 22, 2021

Biden's US-Saudi Recalibration (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Is Official Inflation Data Fake?

March 22, 2021

‘If there’s no inflation, why are prices up so much?’ So reads a Time article from 2013. Today, this sentiment returns: ardent…

EM QE

In: Hive Exclusives | EM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Which EM Will Be Next to Hike?

March 19, 2021

Summary Rate hikes from Brazil, Turkey and Russia this week raise the question, which EM country is next? India and the Philippines…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities

The Russell 2000 is a Momentum Trade Now

March 19, 2021

Summary We expected the Russell 2000 rally would slow in 2021, but instead it has outrun the S&P 500 by nearly 10%…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality US

Biden’s Gambit Will Leave Lighter Market Footprint Than Reagan’s

March 18, 2021

Summary As Reagan’s did, Biden’s budget deficits aim to change the trajectory of US society – just in the opposite direction. Policy…

In: Hive Exclusives | EEMEA Monetary Policy & Inflation

CBR Preview: The Case for a March Rate Hike

March 18, 2021

Summary I expect the CBR to hike its policy rate by 25bps to 4.50% on Friday and follow with further tightening in…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Weekly Vaccination Update

March 17, 2021

In this prime tracker, we will keep you up-to-date with the latest global vaccine developments. This week, we’ve added more detail on…

In: Deep Dives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

When Can You Trust a Forecaster?

March 17, 2021

Summary A Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper documents systematic differences in forecasting accuracy among participants of the ECB’s SPF. Forecaster…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

March 16, 2021

Coronavirus: a year like no other (ONS, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

March 16, 2021

The case for economic optimism (Invesco, 13 min read) Credit-Rating Agencies Could Derail Economic Recovery (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

March 16, 2021

Central banks' uneasy embrace of digital currencies (PIIE, 5 min read)      

US Federal Reserve

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

FOMC Preview: More Signalling Than Forecasting

March 16, 2021

Summary Entering this week’s meeting, the Fed likely has three key objectives: Placing the recovery on solid footing. Strengthening the credibility of…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

March 15, 2021

China moves towards greater control over fintechs (OMFIF, 2 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

March 15, 2021

The market-implied effects of the Biden stimulus and the Fed’s new policy framework (VoxEU, 6 min read)      

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

March 15, 2021

Cloudy with a chance of tariffs: the impact of policy uncertainty on the global economy (Bank Underground, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

March 15, 2021

Rising Market Power—A Threat to the Recovery? (IMF Blog, 3 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Does the Fed Really Want Inflation?

March 15, 2021

Investors are obsessing about this Wednesday’s Fed meeting. Will the Fed raise their forecasts for policy rate hikes in 2023? Will they…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto

Bitcoin’s ‘Lightning Network’ Let-Down, Part 2: A Solution to One Problem, a Source of Another

March 12, 2021

Summary Bitcoin may be unique, but it faces competition. Centralisation in ‘Lightning Networks’ will increase competition further. An IMF/World Bank SDR global…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

March 11, 2021

Bank performance in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from the US (VoxEU, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

March 11, 2021

Why Europe’s Digital Decade Matters (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

March 11, 2021

EU-China investment accord fails to resolve subsidy disputes (PIIE, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

March 11, 2021

Focusing on Inflation May Miss the Bigger Risk (PIMCO, 7 min read)      

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID

Weekly Vaccination Update

March 11, 2021

Vaccination rollouts are well underway. In this prime tracker, we will keep you up-to-date with the latest developments globally. On the details:…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Macro Hive Becomes First Ever Full Service Financial Research Firm To Accept Bitcoin For Payment

March 11, 2021

Macro Hive, a leading independent research provider for investors, is now the first full service financial research firms in the world to…

In: Deep Dives | COVID Labour Market & Inequality

Household and Corporate Debt: Covid vs the GFC

March 10, 2021

Summary A new FEDS note finds that the CARES act has significantly reduced the share of US borrowers in delinquency and/or forbearance.…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

March 09, 2021

Women in the labor force (FRED, 3 min read) Developing countries need greater financing and debt relief for COVID-19 and future pandemics…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

March 09, 2021

Who Needs a Digital Dollar? (6 min read) Fewer currencies, please (OMFIF, 3 min read)      

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities

Podcast Transcript: Peter Tertzakian on Energy Transitions, Electric Vehicles and Big Oil

March 09, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Peter Tertzakian, who discusses the path of renewables and clean tech, continuing…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

The Bond Bear Market and the End of US Equity Dominance

March 09, 2021

Summary A coming economic boom favours rotation out of bonds and Big Tech towards non-US and cyclical/value stocks. The recent rates selloff…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

March 08, 2021

Implications of China’s Credit Curtail (PIMCO, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

March 08, 2021

High debt, low rates, and tail events: Rules-based fiscal frameworks under stress (VoxEU, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

March 08, 2021

Raskin says US ready to lead in climate battle (OMFIF, 3 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Economic Growth

Goodbye K-Shaped Recovery, Hello V-Shaped

March 08, 2021

Summary Both the headline and details of Friday's NFP data suggest economic normalization has started. Normalization is driven by re-openings and the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Labour Market & Inequality

Labour Market Still on Hold

March 08, 2021

Summary Markets responded enthusiastically to the February labour market report. But on closer inspection, it was a bit short on substance. Most…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

March 04, 2021

How institutional investment funds’ reach for yield intensifies asset price volatility (VoxEU, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

March 04, 2021

Biden impact on ESG investing will go deeper than climate (OMFIF, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

March 04, 2021

The Evidence Is in on Negative Interest Rate Policies (IMF Blog, 3 min read) Is Inflation Alive? (Project Syndicate, 8 min read)…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto

Bitcoin’s ‘Lightning Network’ Let-Down, Part 1: A Solution to One Problem, a Source of Another

March 04, 2021

Summary Bitcoin's institutional acceptance continues apace, supporting the price. But bitcoin consumes an ever-growing amount of power, raising long-term concerns. A proposed…

In: Hive Exclusives | Real Estate

Can Housing Withstand Higher Rates?

March 04, 2021

Summary Rising rates have sparked alarm over inflation and the possible Fed response. But so far, few have wondered how the broader…

In: Hive Exclusives | Global

Podcast Transcript: Ciamac Moallemi On Quant Investing, Machine Learning and Trading Styles

March 04, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Ciamac Moallemi, Professor of Business in the Decision, Risk, and Operations Division…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

March 03, 2021

Portfolios for Long-Term Investors (NBER, 48 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

March 03, 2021

Global Pricing of Carbon-Transition Risk (NBER, 28 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

March 03, 2021

How much stress could Covid put on corporate credit? Evidence using sectoral data (BIS, 12 min read) Corporate Liquidity and Solvency in…

In: Deep Dives | COVID Equities

Do ESG Ratings Affect IPO Valuations?

March 03, 2021

Summary A new Journal of Corporate Finance paper shows that higher country-level ESG ratings are associated with lower IPO underpricing. IPOs issued…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

March 02, 2021

Will Capital Flows through Global Banks Support Economic Recovery? (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read) Staying Afloat: New Measures to Support European…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

March 01, 2021

Private sector’s retreat jeopardises rebound (OMFIF, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

March 01, 2021

An Open Letter to Joe Biden on International Corporate Taxation (Project Syndicate, 4 min read) The comeback of ‘r > g’ (VoxEU,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The Fed is Failing

March 01, 2021

The Fed’s failure is neither that rates volatility has picked up nor that equity markets fell last week. Rather, it is that…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

February 26, 2021

A deep learning algorithm for optimal investment strategies (ARXIV, 13 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

February 26, 2021

Pulling Up the Inflation Anchor (Project Syndicate, 3 min read)    

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

February 26, 2021

Cloudy with a chance of tariffs: the impact of policy uncertainty on the global economy (Bank Underground, 6 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Latam

BRL is Cheap, But Not Yet a Buy

February 26, 2021

Summary Petrobras CEO's dismissal could signal the start of a populist spiral ahead of Brazil’s 2022 presidential election. The BCB will hike…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities

Stop Buying Stuff, Plan to Splurge on Fun Activities Instead

February 25, 2021

Summary Goods-oriented consumption has soared over the past year and spurred a strong rally in the retail XRT ETF, especially since the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Podcast Transcript: Jay Pelosky on the Coming Boom, Mega-Tech Weakness and Big Government

February 25, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory and former top ranked head of…

In: Deep Dives | Equities FX

Can the S&P 500 Help Forecast Changes in the USD?

February 24, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper examines which models are best for forecasting the nominal exchange rate. It finds evidence that the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

February 22, 2021

Pandemics swing elections, but not as much as you think (VoxEU, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

February 22, 2021

The Draghi Power Triangle (Project Syndicate, 4 min read) Structural Factors and Central Bank Credibility Limit Inflation Risks (IMF Blog, 5 min…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto EM FX

Bitcoin: A Bet on Reflation, Not the Dollar’s Demise

February 22, 2021

Bitcoin is up almost 90% this year. Many crypto enthusiasts think this signals that bitcoin will replace the dollar in the global…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

February 22, 2021

Biden’s Good Start on China (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

February 19, 2021

Another disinflationary force vanishes: The tightening of bank equity capital regulation (VoxEU, 6 min read) Public and Private Money Can Coexist in…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Equities FX Global

Which Countries Will Reach Covid-19 Herd Immunity in 2021?

February 19, 2021

Summary Vaccination rollouts are accelerating, and global Covid-19 cases are dropping. Early data from Israel suggests vaccinations are working, with hospitalised patients’…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities COVID Equities ESG & Climate Change Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality Politics & Geopolitics US

Biden’s Big Infrastructure Plan: What’s in it for Investors?

February 18, 2021

Summary President Biden aims for a large-scale infrastructure program with his upcoming four-year $1.9tn plan. But it is unlikely to be enacted…

In: Deep Dives | Asia China Economic Growth

What Is Driving Chinese Growth?

February 17, 2021

Summary A BIS working paper creates a new alternative measure for estimating China GDP growth. The measure uses provincial macroeconomic data and…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

February 16, 2021

Economic costs of inequitable vaccine distribution across the world (VoxEU, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

February 16, 2021

How Will Our Children Know They Face a Crushing Debt Burden? (CEPR, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

February 16, 2021

Do banks need belts and braces? (Bank Underground, 7 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds COVID Economic Growth Europe

Podcast Transcript: Christian Hille on Exponential Growth, Avoiding Low Returns, and Errors in Risk Management

February 16, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Christian Hille, the General Manager and Head of Wealth Management at Fürstlich-Castell’sche…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Economic Growth Equities US

Higher US Yields Are Good for Equities

February 16, 2021

Many say that higher US bond yields will derail the US equity rally. Yet, US 10y yields have more than doubled to…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto Commodities Equities Fiscal Policy & Inequality US

Tesla Bitcoin Bombshell: The Trickle May Turn to a Flood

February 12, 2021

Summary US corporate cash piles continue to grow but earn near zero interest Tesla's decision to reallocate to gold and bitcoin could…

In: Hive Exclusives | Real Estate US

US House Prices Outperforming Expectations

February 11, 2021

Summary The US housing market had a stellar year in 2020, recording YoY growth rates last seen in 2005. Housing transaction data…

In: Deep Dives | Economic Growth Equities

Successful Start-Ups Build Strong Founding Teams

February 10, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper investigates the importance of founding members to the long-term success of start-ups. Start-ups with higher-than-average skills…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

February 09, 2021

An EU-China Deal for a Bygone Era (Project Syndicate, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

February 09, 2021

What to Look for in the January Consumer Price Index (CEPR, 3 min read) Bank of England urges co-operation on clearing (OMFIF,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds EM Equities Europe FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Podcast Transcript: Jon Turek on the New Fed Put, the Brainard US Curve Steepener and the Dollar

February 09, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Jon Turek. He gave his views on how to approach the Fed’s…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

February 09, 2021

Inflation and the Biden stimulus (VoxEU, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

February 09, 2021

Neglecting climate change endangers ECB independence (OMFIF, 1 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

February 09, 2021

Poor Countries’ Technology Dilemma (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Economic Growth Monetary Policy & Inflation

Is the RBA Setting a Precedent for the Fed?

February 09, 2021

Summary The recent RBA meeting may have set the template for how DM central banks will manage monetary policy at zero policy…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities Economic Growth EM Europe FX Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics US

Turbulent Domestic Politics Is Scaring off Investors and Keeping the Rouble Weak

February 08, 2021

Summary Russia’s economy is gaining traction, bolstered by vaccine rollout. But local assets have underperformed with the threat of sanctions following the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds COVID Economic Growth Equities Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality US

Where Will the Economy Find 10 million Lost Jobs?

February 08, 2021

Summary Another month, another downbeat labour market report. Yet recovery need not be distant. Most of the pain was focused in the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bitcoin & Crypto Bonds China COVID Europe FX Politics & Geopolitics US

Podcast Transcript: Barry Eichengreen on Dollar Dominance, Crypto Hype, and Reforming International Finance

February 08, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Professor Barry Eichengreen, one of the leading thinkers on international economics and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Commodities COVID Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation

Why Spiking Shipping Costs Could Threaten The Global Recovery

February 05, 2021

Summary Shipping prices have surged since November, with China’s rapid recovery, earlier capacity reductions and much-reduced air freight all contributing. Alongside higher…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bonds China EM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Why China Must Cut Interest Rates

February 04, 2021

Summary China’s unbalanced economic recovery is down to policymakers keeping interest rates above the natural rate. High rates have pushed capital into…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation Real Estate US

Don’t Fight the Fed on Housing

February 04, 2021

Summary Fed Chair Powell recently suggested that the surging housing market of 2H 2020 is due to people adjusting to the Covid-19…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

February 03, 2021

Helicopter money in another pandemic recession: Venice, 1630 (VoxEU, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

February 03, 2021

“Pop-Up” Regulations for Big Tech (Project Syndicate, 6 min read)  Draghi’s grandest and gravest mission (OMFIF, 3 min read) 

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

February 03, 2021

Equity Volatility Term Premia (Liberty Street Economics, 12 min read)

In: Deep Dives | Global

Beware of Trading on Your Smartphone

February 03, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper measures how behaviours such as risk-taking, preference for lottery stocks and trend chasing vary depending on…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

February 02, 2021

Corporate Governance after GameStop (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

February 02, 2021

The Pre-Pandemic Debt Landscape—and Why It Matters (IMF, 2 min read) Central bank digital currencies risk becoming a gigantic flop (VoxEU, 5…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

February 02, 2021

The Law of One Price in Equity Volatility Markets (Liberty Street Economics, 9 min read) Cointelegraph announces the Top 100 Notable People…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Real Estate UK

Monthly UK House Prices Fall, But Which Areas Benefited Most During the Pandemic?

February 02, 2021

Summary Nationwide figures show a 0.3% MoM fall in house prices, the first in six months. Annual growth rates have dropped but…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities US

Silver Squeeze Success or Debacle? Historical Lessons for the Curious

February 02, 2021

Summary Silver prices and physical premia have spiked of late, with inventories depleting Rumours are a ‘Reddit Army’ is partly responsible The…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds COVID Fiscal Policy & Inequality Politics & Geopolitics US

A Smaller COVID Relief Deal and Yellen’s Funding Dilemmas

February 02, 2021

Summary A bipartisan COVID relief deal around $700bn appears most likely. This is due to moderate Democratic senators’ de facto veto and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds FX US

The Best Way to Play the Fed

February 01, 2021

Summary  With more US fiscal easing, the ‘Brainard steepener’ of low five-year real yields and higher long-term nominal yields still works.  But…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

January 29, 2021

Job Seekers’ Beliefs and the Causes of Long-Term Unemployment (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

January 29, 2021

The G.O.P. Is in a Doom Loop of Bizarro (NY Times, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

January 29, 2021

Fed should speak out on financial stability (OMFIF, 2 min read)  

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

January 29, 2021

The wisdom of the Robinhood crowd (NBER, 32 page read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

The Real Meaning of the Reddit Rebellion Against Stocks

January 28, 2021

Summary Reddit rebels were buying stocks and short squeezes are common after crises. This suggests stock markets may have more support than…

In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Equities US

High Yield Credit Spreads Poised to Keep Tightening

January 28, 2021

Summary Credit spreads are approaching decade tights. But history shows there is still some upside – especially in high yield – if…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

January 27, 2021

COVID-19 and Global Income Inequality (NBER, 14 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

January 27, 2021

Text-based recession probabilities (ECB, 24 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

January 27, 2021

Unconventional Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets and Frontier Countries (IMF, 39 page read) Insolvency and debt overhang following the COVID-19 outbreak: Assessment…

In: Deep Dives | Asia China Equities Politics & Geopolitics US

US-China Trade Relations: Which Equity Markets Are Most Affected?

January 27, 2021

Summary A new BIS working paper uses deep learning methods to assess the impact of US-China trade sentiment on up to 60…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

January 27, 2021

The Coronavirus Vaccine Fail and International Elites (CEPR, 7 min read) Where Biden Should Be More Like Trump (Project Syndicate, 5 min…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

January 27, 2021

A Race Between Vaccines and the Virus as Recoveries Diverge (IMF, 7 min read) Expect inflation and strong second-half recovery (OMFIF, 2…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Monetary Policy & Inflation US

FOMC Preview: Tamping Down the Taper Talks

January 26, 2021

Summary 2021 sees a more dovish FOMC voter block, yet the tone at the year’s first meeting should deviate little from the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

January 25, 2021

Remarks by IMF Managing Director at the Climate Adaptation Summit (IMF, 1 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

January 25, 2021

Beyond Brexit: Outlook and Risks for the U.K. Economy (PIMCO, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

January 25, 2021

England’s Lockdown Lessons (Project Syndicate, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

January 25, 2021

Beware rising neutral rates (OMFIF, 3 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities ESG & Climate Change US

An Invisible Hand for an Inconvenient Truth

January 25, 2021

Summary The global political tide is turning towards the increased use of carbon pricing. The price mechanism is the proven, trusted way…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

The Recovery Trade Still Has Legs

January 22, 2021

Summary The retail sales print portrayed a back-sliding economy. But most of the pain was in the food service sector (i.e., restaurants…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

January 21, 2021

How competitive are UK insurance markets? (Bank Underground, 5 min read) Why rising public debt won’t drive countries into difficulties (OMFIF, 2…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

January 21, 2021

Policy responses to the corporate solvency problem in the ongoing Covid-19 crisis (VoxEU, 8 min read) US Institutions After Trump (Project Syndicate,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bonds China EM Equities FX Politics & Geopolitics

Why EM Capital Inflows Are Here to Stay (in Asia at Least)

January 21, 2021

Summary Accelerating capital inflows through Q4 2020 were a key driver of EMFX. We expect inflows will remain strong in Asia driven…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Politics & Geopolitics US

Refounded US Multilateralism Unlikely to Restore Dollar Fortunes

January 21, 2021

Summary The dollar share of global foreign reserves declined under the Trump administration’s unilateralism. President Biden’s multilateralism alone may be unable to…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto COVID ESG & Climate Change

Podcast Transcript: Eli Dourado on the Key Tech Breakthroughs For the 2020s

January 21, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with economist and regulatory hacker, Eli Dourado. He provides his views on some…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

January 21, 2021

The earned income tax credit: targeting the poor but crowding out wealth (BoE, 24 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

January 21, 2021

Pandemics and Automation: Will the Lost Jobs Come Back? (IMF, 22 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Bitcoin & Crypto

The Best Methods For Measuring Cryptocurrency Market Liquidity

January 20, 2021

Summary A new Journal of Banking and Finance paper explores how best to measure liquidity in cryptocurrency markets using only low-frequency data.…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

January 19, 2021

The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine (Medium, 22 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

January 19, 2021

Trump Crazy and Intellectual Crazy (CEPR, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

January 19, 2021

US, China must act to avoid monetary breakdown (OMFIF, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

January 19, 2021

The value of a vaccine to end COVID-19 is worth between 5% and 15% of wealth (VoxEU, 6 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation

ECB Preview: Pandemic Worsens, But Policy to Stay Unchanged

January 19, 2021

Europe’s economy is on the cusp of a double-dip recession. A worsening COVID situation and a tightening of restrictions means the bloc…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality Real Estate UK

UK House Price Growth Losing Steam

January 18, 2021

Summary Average asking prices fell 0.9% on last month, according to the latest Rightmove data. YoY changes remain positive, but early-pandemic momentum…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bonds EM Equities ESG & Climate Change Europe FX Latam Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Transcript: 12 Investment Ideas For 2021 From Our Listeners

January 18, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our 12 Investment Ideas For 2021 From Our Listeners podcast episode. The trade ideas are the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Economic Growth Politics & Geopolitics US

An Unhappy Anniversary for the US-China Phase 1 Deal

January 15, 2021

Summary Chinese exports have outperformed this year, resulting in a rising global market share. And imports contracted, leaving China’s trade surplus at…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Economic Growth Europe Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics UK

The Sick Man of Europe

January 14, 2021

Summary UK relative economic performance has been very weak since the 2016 Brexit vote. Brexit’s arrival is unlikely to reverse this trend,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Higher Food and Energy Prices Spell Danger Ahead

January 14, 2021

Summary Food and energy prices have risen sharply of late Upward pressure on global manufacturing costs is a likely result US breakevens…

In: Deep Dives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality

What Determines How Wealthy You Become?

January 13, 2021

Summary A new NBER paper explores the origins of wealth using a unique granular dataset. They find labour income drives wealth inequality…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

January 12, 2021

What’s behind the recent surge in the M1 money supply? (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 6 min read) ‘Leaning against the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

January 12, 2021

Why everyone should be using Signal instead of WhatsApp (Wired, 3 min read) Time to align finance with biodiversity objectives (OMFIF, 2…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

The Small Caps/Russell 2000 Hot Streak Is About to Fade

January 12, 2021

Summary The Russell 2000 index has been on a hot streak since the election, far outperforming the SPX and NASDAQ 100 indices.…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality US

The US Labour Market Is Sprouting Green Shoots

January 12, 2021

Summary Underlying trends in the US labour market are promising. Outside of the leisure and food service sectors, the private sector is…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

January 12, 2021

A Narrowly Democratic Congress Could Boost Spending and Growth (PIMCO, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

January 12, 2021

State-owned Chinese bank rolls out ATMs for digital yuan (CoinTelegraph, 1 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

January 12, 2021

Impeaching Trump a Second Time is Complex and Politically Risky … (The Conversation, 4 min read) The Brexit Boon to Europe and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China COVID EM Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Inflation! What Inflation?

January 11, 2021

Summary China has increased fiscal deficits, credit, public spending, and has re-opened, yet inflation is anemic. This shows that commodity price inflation…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bonds China COVID Economic Growth Equities Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation UK

Three Reasons for Optimism on Global Growth

January 08, 2021

Summary Fresh COVID restrictions leave downside risks to the global recovery as mobility slows again. Asia’s dominance in global growth, an accommodative…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Commodities COVID EEMEA Europe Global Politics & Geopolitics UK US

Geopolitics Returns!

January 07, 2021

Summary New alliances in the Middle East, the EU-China CAI deal, and Brexit show geopolitics is back. The US-China battle on digital…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Credit US

Credit Market Outlook: It’s All About Carry Now

January 07, 2021

Summary The corporate bond market outlook is sanguine. Credit spreads are near the past decade’s tights and likely to remain in a…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

January 06, 2021

Sovereign Debt Standstills (NBER, 16 page read) Remittances and COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries (Federal Reserve, 8 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

January 06, 2021

Pricing Currency Risks (NBER, 29 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

January 06, 2021

The globalisation of inflation in the European emerging countries (BIS, 18 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Labour Market & Inequality US

Which Jobs Will AI Take Over?

January 06, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper reveals a recent surge in job listings requiring AI-specific skills, based on Burning Glass job vacancy…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

January 05, 2021

Why Partisanship Will Increase in the Post-Trump Era (CEPR, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

January 05, 2021

Notes on technology in the 2020s (Eli Dourado, 8 min read) Why Markets Boomed in a Year of Human Misery (NYT, 4…

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Global

Is There A Strong Consensus For Dollar Weakness In 2021?

January 05, 2021

Summary Consensus FX forecasts indicate no expectation of dollar weakness against the majors. Market implication: the bearish dollar trade may not be…

Academic Paper Summaries

In: Deep Dives |

Full List Of 2020 Deep Dives

December 29, 2020

Our Deep Dives have proven to be one of the most popular Macro Hive products this year. In total, we have written…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Commodities COVID EM

Why Are Iron Ore Prices Surging?

December 22, 2020

Supply issues pushing iron ore prices to fresh highs. Iron appears overextended vs other industrial commodities. Chinese steel producers have blamed speculators.…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week of 21 December, 28 December and 4 January

December 18, 2020

Monetary Policy With most major DM central banks already wrapping up for the year the remaining policy meetings are in EM. Turkey…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Book Recommendations Of The Year

December 17, 2020

We’ve had many great guests on our podcast show this year, and fascinating discussing on a whole range of topics. I always…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities EM Europe Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Labour Market & Inequality

Russia’s (Looser) Fiscal Rule RUB Positive

December 17, 2020

Summary Russia introduced a new fiscal rule in 2017 to preserve wealth across generations It implies FX interventions by the central bank…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

December 16, 2020

Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts? (INET, 26 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

December 16, 2020

The Impact of US Tariffs Against China on US Imports: Evidence for Trade Diversion? (ECB, 15 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

December 16, 2020

Do Enlarged Fiscal Deficits Cause Inflation: The Historical Record (NBER, 34 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

December 16, 2020

The Remarkable Growth in Financial Economics, 1974-2020 (NBER, 32 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

December 16, 2020

Recessions and Mortality: A Global Perspective (BIS, 32 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Global Monetary Policy & Inflation

Rethinking The Traditional Measure Of Inflation

December 16, 2020

Summary Inflation expectations are an important component of Central Bank inflation measures. Using household and firm survey data, the Bank of Canada…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

FOMC Preview: Does The Lame Duck Session Also Apply To The Fed?

December 16, 2020

The last FOMC meeting of 2020 is upon us. Given the year we’ve just had we doubt the Fed wants to create…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

December 15, 2020

When Inequality is High, Pandemics Can Fuel Social Unrest (IMF Blog, 2 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

December 15, 2020

Rise Up: Vaccines Brought Broader Market Participation (Charles Schwab, 6 min read) Bull or Bear in 2021? (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Equities Europe UK US

Which US Sectors Continue To Gain From Vaccine News?

December 15, 2020

COVID vaccine rollout has begun. The Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine is now approved for use in the US, UK and several other…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

December 14, 2020

2021 US outlook: The recovery takes hold (Invesco, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

December 14, 2020

5 key metrics signal Ethereum price is ready to make a new 2020 high (CoinTelegraph, 3 min read) It’s the most wonder-bull…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

December 14, 2020

Inflation Was Sooo 1970s! Will It Roar Back in the 2020s? (Dr Ed’s Blog,8 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Economic Growth Europe Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics UK

2021 Grey Swan #11: Unexpected UK Outperformance

December 14, 2020

There was much to worry about in the UK during 2020. The response to the Covid-19 pandemic was slow yet chaotic. The…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bitcoin & Crypto COVID Equities Real Estate

Podcast Transcript: Jim Leitner On Growth vs Value, Digital Options And Bitcoin

December 14, 2020

This is a transcript of our podcast episode with one of our most popular returning guests, star investor Jim Leitner. He gives…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week of 14 December

December 11, 2020

Monetary Policy Wednesday’s Fed decision will be the highlight of the week, with forward guidance and a possible duration shift in focus.…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bonds China FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

China: Curb Your Enthusiasm

December 11, 2020

Summary Long Chinese fixed income FX unhedged is a multi-year macro trade. It’s underpinned by China’s favourable BoP position, high positive real…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China EM Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

INR – Asia’s Worst-Performing Currency in 2020

December 11, 2020

Summary Rupee looks set to end the year as Asia’s worst-performing currency This reflects RBI FX intervention with FX reserves up $xbn…

In: Hive Exclusives | Global Politics & Geopolitics

2021 Grey Swan #10: The Year We Finally Knew We Were Not Alone

December 11, 2020

As though 2020’s turmoil was too paltry to earn a prominent spot in the history books of modern civilization, 2021 took a…

In: Hive Exclusives | ESG & Climate Change Politics & Geopolitics US

2021 Grey Swan #9: The Globalisation Of Carbon Taxes

December 10, 2020

If you’re going to fly a kite, why not fly one the size of a jumbo jet? The potential return of Janet…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bitcoin & Crypto China Monetary Policy & Inflation

2021 Grey Swan #8: China’s CBDC First-Mover Advantage Weakens Dollar Dominance

December 10, 2020

China’s retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) has received strong media attention. Yet its impact will be mainly domestic, challenging the duopoly…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Commodities COVID

Iron Ore Insights

December 10, 2020

Summary Recovering steel production has pulled iron ore prices sharply higher. De-stockpiling appears to have begun, capping further price gains near term.…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bitcoin & Crypto China COVID

2021 Grey Swan #7: HKD Peg Breaks the Lower Band

December 10, 2020

The Covid-19 crisis for China may prove to be the economic equivalent of WW2 for the US. The US was the only…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Equities Politics & Geopolitics US

2021 Grey Swan #6: US and China Go to War Over Taiwan

December 09, 2020

With all the talk about the return of Great Power politics, few are actually looking for a direct confrontation between the US…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Monetary Policy & Inflation US

2021 Grey Swan #5: Central Bankers’ Prayers Are Answered: Inflation Surges

December 09, 2020

‘Take care for what you pray; for the Gods may one day grant it to you,’ is an old proverb with similar…

In: Deep Dives | Economic Growth Global

Can Google Trends Accurately Forecast GDP Growth?

December 09, 2020

Summary The OECD has created a Weekly GDP Growth tracker using 263 Google Trends search topics. The tracker is highly correlated with…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

December 08, 2020

Central Banking’s Green Mission(Project Syndicate, 4 min read) Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media: How central banks reach the general public (VoxEU,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

2021 Grey Swan #4: Biden Unites the States of America

December 08, 2020

Sturgis, North Dakota, 25 December 2021. As President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden exit the Christmas service of the First…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

2021 Grey Swan #3: Biden Gets A Clean Sweep

December 08, 2020

It goes without saying: the trajectory of the Biden presidency depends critically on whether Democrats gain control of the Senate in Georgia’s…

In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation

ECB Preview: Stepping Up Again

December 08, 2020

The ECB has made it explicit that additional stimulus will be announced at its Thursday Governing Council meeting. Market expectations are for…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

2021 Grey Swan #2: FX Volatility Back In Play

December 07, 2020

I was taught a simple framework in order to understand all financial markets options. No, not the ‘right but not the obligation…’…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

December 07, 2020

About That  (Next Fed Meeting… (Tim Duy’s Fed Watch,1 2 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

December 07, 2020

The VIX and the vax (LGIM, 3 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality US

Dismal Labour Market Report Highlights Need for More Stimulus

December 07, 2020

Summary The November US labour report was dismal, portraying an economy verging on a double-dip recession. Every key metric worsened or came…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds COVID Fiscal Policy & Inequality Global US

2021 Grey Swan #1: US Yields Go Negative!

December 07, 2020

It’s remarkable that for all the talk of negative-yielding bonds, no one is entertaining the possibility that US 10y yields could go…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities COVID EM Europe FX Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation

After a Long Russian Winter, A Rate Cut Will Come

December 04, 2020

Summary RUB is benefitting from the EM rally and the OPEC+ agreement to delay increases in oil output. But Russia is in…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth EM Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Key Events: Week of 7 December

December 04, 2020

Monetary Policy Thursday’s ECB meeting with take center stage with President Lagarde widely expected to announce additional asset purchases under PEPP. Brazil…

In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

SEK: G10’s Best Performing Currency Has Cyclical And Structural Support

December 03, 2020

Summary SEK outperformance unrelated to Sweden’s no-lockdown policy. Riksbank’s 2020 hawkishness contrasts 2014-2019 dovishness. The positive basic balance, the rise in NIIP,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics US

2021: A Banner Year for Risk Assets?

December 03, 2020

Summary Risk assets have a banner year ahead of them for three reasons. First, even without additional easing, monetary and fiscal policies…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality US

Labour Market Report Likely to Disappoint

December 03, 2020

Summary Early indications: November labour market report could either come in weaker than consensus forecasts or, if on the mark, already be…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global

Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations with Yaneer Bar-Yam

December 03, 2020

As COVID cases continue to rise across the US and Europe, we teamed up with complexity theory expert Dr Yaneer Bar-Yam to…

In: Deep Dives | Bitcoin & Crypto

An Economic Framework To Value Bitcoin

December 02, 2020

Summary The challenge of valuing bitcoin lies mainly in identifying how token-holders will use the currency moving forward. With it being a…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

December 01, 2020

How Much Debt Is Too Much? (Project Syndicate, 3 min read) Modern monetary theory would produce chaos (OMFIF, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

December 01, 2020

An Effective Response to Europe’s Fiscal Paralysis (Project Syndicate, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

December 01, 2020

Cannabis Industry After Biden Elected - Once In A Lifetime Investing Opportunity (Seeking Alpha, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

December 01, 2020

How Will Biden Deal With Republican Sabotage? (New York Times, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Economic Growth EM FX

Can EM Continue The November Rally?

December 01, 2020

Summary EM sentiment remains bullish following strong November performance and vaccine rollout optimism. That EMs have more goods-driven economies (versus service-oriented DM…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

US Election Competition Results: Four People Have Won $5000s’ Worth of Our Professional Offering!

December 01, 2020

Last month, we held our first-ever Macro Hive competition and we made sure that the prize really lived up to it -…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

November 27, 2020

When bigger isn’t better: UK firms’ equity price performance during the Covid-19 pandemic (Bank Underground, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 27, 2020

What's in store for r*? (Money and Banking, 8 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 27, 2020

COVID vaccines are party-poopers for gold (Flow Bank, 3 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week of 30 November

November 27, 2020

Monetary Policy Australia, Poland and India will all hold policy meetings over the coming week. None are expected to ease policy, although…

In: Hive Exclusives | Credit EM Europe Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Turkey: What to Watch for a Sustained Lira Turnaround

November 27, 2020

Summary Turkey’s 475bps rate hike and new economic management are much-needed policy shifts. They are not, however, enough to guarantee lira stability.…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

November 26, 2020

Big Tech Companies in Chinese Finance (PIIE, 60 min watch)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 26, 2020

Jeremy Siegel: 2021 will be a Bull Market for Stocks (Advisor Perspectives, 10 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

November 26, 2020

How a Collective Infrastructure Push Will Boost Global Growth (IMF, 2 min read) A Tale of Two Economies (Project Syndicate,4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Commodities Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Guess What’s Coming to Dinner? Inflation!

November 26, 2020

Summary: Sharp increases in grains prices this year may have an unexpectedly broad impact on inflation generally Energy price declines appear to…

In: Deep Dives | COVID FX Global Monetary Policy & Inflation

FX Volatility At Risk From Pandemic

November 25, 2020

Summary: The US, EU, Japan and China account for 50% of world GDP. Their exchange rates have been experiencing a long-term secular…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Labour Market & Inequality US

Ongoing COVID-19 Surge To Have Limited Economic Impact

November 25, 2020

Summary The ongoing COVID surge is likely to have limited economic impact: the economy is already ‘pandemic-proofed’; the virus is less deadly;…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Economic Growth Equities ESG & Climate Change Europe FX Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation Real Estate US

8 Charts To Give Thanks For In 2020

November 25, 2020

The upcoming US Thanksgiving holiday is usually a time for families to gather and give thanks. However, this year the COVID pandemic…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 25, 2020

‘Low for Long’ and Risk-Taking (IMF, 22 page read) Stablecoins: Potential, Risks and Regulation (BIS, 23 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

November 25, 2020

Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning (FEDS, 21 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

November 25, 2020

How News Affects Sectoral Stock Prices Through Earnings Expectations and Risk Premia (ECB, 20 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

November 24, 2020

The Youths Are Coming For The Housing Market (A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 24, 2020

Monetizing Privacy with Central Bank Digital Currencies (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 24, 2020

“High” Yield yields hit a low (M&G Investments, 6 min read) Here Are The Blockchain Networks Most Popular With Capital Markets Players…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID EM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations With Dirk Willer

November 24, 2020

Following promising vaccine results, bullish sentiment over EM is building. To discuss this, we welcomed Dirk Willer, Managing Director and Global Head…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds COVID Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation US

How COVID-19 Kills Inflation

November 24, 2020

Yet again, everyone sees nothing but inflation following a sharp downturn. Just like after the 2008 financial crisis, policymaker, analyst and investor…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 23, 2020

Fintech and big tech credit markets around the world (Vox EU, 8 min read) Jumping into the pool: How to earn a…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Europe US

US vs Europe: A COVID Comparison In Charts

November 23, 2020

Summary US COVID cases are rising quickly and could continue to rise for at least another two weeks. The latest research estimates…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 20, 2020

The Siren Song of Austerity (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 20, 2020

Flipping tech: four risks to the sector (LGIM, 3 min read) Engines of global growth keep recovery on track (Variant Perception, 3…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Striking a Minor Discord? The Treasury Wants Its Money Back…

November 20, 2020

Summary As we expected, Secretary Mnuchin did not renew the key 13(3) facilities aimed at credit and muni market support and has…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week of 23 November

November 20, 2020

Monetary Policy Next Thursday, we have policy rate announcements from the Riksbank and BoK. On speeches, Deputy Governor’s of the Bank of…

In: Hive Exclusives | EM Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality Latam Monetary Policy & Inflation

Why the Mexican Peso Could Perform

November 20, 2020

Summary Mexico’s trade balance has dramatically improved since 2017. The country has favoured fiscal and monetary stability over economic growth. Market Implications…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality US

The Fiscal Cliff Is Already Behind Us

November 19, 2020

Summary Funding for the most important Congress funded COVID programs has already largely expired. Household balance sheets remain robust. This suggests limited…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality US

Watch For A Rise In Mortgage Foreclosures

November 19, 2020

Summary Bankruptcy activity has been remarkably low in 2020 thanks to loan forbearance programs in the CARES legislation. Absent further action by…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

November 18, 2020

A Proposal for an Auction-Based Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (VoxEU, 4 min read) The Impact of Natural Disasters on the Corporate Loan…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 18, 2020

Anonymous Trading in Equities (Journal of Finance, 40 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 18, 2020

Fintech in Europe: Promises and Threats (IMF, 28 pages) Sudden Stops and Optimal Foreign Exchange Intervention (NBER, 42 pages)      …

In: Deep Dives | COVID Labour Market & Inequality

Will Remote Working Remain After COVID?

November 18, 2020

Summary Up to half of US workers have been working from home during the pandemic. Employees and managers alike view this transition…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 17, 2020

Vaccine Apartheid (Project Syndicate, 8 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

November 17, 2020

Emerging markets: inflation ahoy? (LGIM, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 17, 2020

3 Types Of Inflation, And How They Impact Your Portfolio (Seeking Alpha, 15 min read)      

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 17, 2020

4 reasons why BTC price will hit $22,000 next (Cointelegraph,3 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China COVID Politics & Geopolitics US

The True Economic Consequences Of The COVID Peace

November 17, 2020

The war against the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be in its final stretch with the news of two Western vaccines, but investors…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bonds China Equities US

Introducing CTA Momentum Models For Canadian Futures

November 17, 2020

Momentum strategies are a core part of any systematic investment approach. The challenge is to keep finding ways to improve returns, especially…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 16, 2020

7 Misconceptions About Bitcoin (Lyn Alden, 15 min read) Income & Wealth In America: Who Owns Equities?(Dr Ed’s Blog, 5 min read)…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 16, 2020

The Democrats’ problem in the Senate, explained (The Bonddad Blog, 3 min read) Why Biden Can Overcome Political Gridlock (Project Syndicate, 5…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global

Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations With Prof. Justin Stebbing

November 16, 2020

Introduction Following last week’s vaccine news from Pfizer, we welcomed Professor Justin Stebbing back onto our podcast show. We first interviewed Justin…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 13, 2020

Global high yield: more of the same (LGIM, 2 min read) How will the U.S. election impact the U.S. dollar? (JP Morgan…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 13, 2020

Together Again: Physical Distancing on the Decline (IMF, 2 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week of 16 November

November 13, 2020

Monetary Policy Policy rates are due to be announced by the South African, Turkish, and Indonesian Central Banks this week. On speeches,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

Don’t Believe The Trump Coup Conspiracy Theories

November 13, 2020

A vocal minority still believe that President Trump could win the election. According to them, his options are overturning the results, pressuring…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 12, 2020

America’s Alliances After Trump (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

November 12, 2020

Economic expected losses and downside risks due to the Spanish flu (VoxEU, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 12, 2020

The Post-Pandemic Trade (A Wealth of Commonsense, 3 min read) Three reasons why I’m optimistic on Japanese equities (Schroders, 4 min read)…

In: Hive Exclusives | Credit US

High Yield Still A Hold Despite Big Rally

November 12, 2020

Summary High yield credit spreads gapped 80 bp tighter to 422 bp following the election, reaching a target we set in late…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities Fiscal Policy & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The Dollar Has Peaked: Post-Election Update

November 12, 2020

This year’s dollar decline has resumed. Having paused during election season, the downtrend restarted as the country entered the final stage of…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Commodities Economic Growth Fiscal Policy & Inequality

China’s Economy In The 2020s

November 12, 2020

Summary China’s latest five-year plan is under development; these plans are relevant to investors. The growth target is likely to be 5-6%…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

November 11, 2020

How might the autumn lockdown affect different sectors of the economy? (Economics Observatory, 4 min read) Crouching Beliefs, Hidden Biases: The Rise…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 11, 2020

An Early Stablecoin? The Bank of Amsterdam and the Governance of Money (BIS, 36 page read)      

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

November 11, 2020

An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults (IMF, 14 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 11, 2020

Intangible Value (NBER, 17 page read)

In: Deep Dives | COVID Economic Growth Equities Labour Market & Inequality US

Which US Sectors Are Most Excited About A Vaccine?

November 11, 2020

Summary US GDP data reveals hospitality and mining suffered most during COVID-19 first wave. Around 60% of US workers are employed in…

In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Monetary Policy & Inflation US

A Year-End Credit Tightening Event Ahead?

November 10, 2020

Summary Key GOP policymakers have stated that Fed lending facilities should not be extended at end-year. The incoming Treasury secretary could reverse…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

November 10, 2020

The Calm Before the Exchange-Rate Storm? (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 10, 2020

Data Disruption: The Impact of COVID-19 on Inflation Measurement (IMF, 2 min read)    

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 10, 2020

Five forces that could propel markets during a Biden presidency (Invesco, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 10, 2020

DeFi won’t last long without unlocking Bitcoin’s $250B treasure chest (Cointelegraph, 3 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Labour Market & Inequality US

Three New Tailwinds For Small Caps/Russell 2000

November 10, 2020

Anyone watching equity markets yesterday surely noticed the Russell 2000 Index (+3.6%) robustly outperform the S&P 500 (+2.3%) and NASDAQ (-1.9%). Joe…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 09, 2020

This Recession, Banks Are The Good Guy (M&G Investments, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 09, 2020

The Democrats’ Four-Year Reprieve (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 09, 2020

Beyond the Election: What Doesn’t Change Will Be a Lot More Than What Does (Bridgewater Associates, 6 min read)    

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global

Which Countries Are Set To Benefit Most From A Vaccine?

November 09, 2020

Summary Pfizer has just reported promising results for their COVID vaccine. A vaccine is likely to help economies whose sectors have been…

In: Hive Exclusives | Labour Market & Inequality Politics & Geopolitics US

It’s Still A Two-Tier US Labour Market

November 09, 2020

Summary The latest labour market report shows encouraging reduction in temporary unemployment but little improvement in structural unemployment. Exit polling suggests Republicans…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

November 06, 2020

Everybody Lies: Pollster Edition(A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 06, 2020

Steeper And Cheaper (Variant Perception, 3 min read) Tonight, We Leave The Party Like It’s 1999 (GMO, 10 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 06, 2020

Putin’s Flatlining Economy (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week of 9 November

November 06, 2020

Monetary Policy Last week’s flurry of monetary policy meetings leaves a fairly quiet week ahead. Several Fed, ECB and BoE speakers are…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Weekly Claims Point To Further Q4 Growth Risks

November 06, 2020

Summary Weekly claims are falling because benefits are expiring, not because workers are finding jobs. Together with slower employment growth, this suggests…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

AUD Strength To Continue Despite RBA Easing

November 05, 2020

Summary AUD is the currency most correlated to the S&P 500 since the pandemic began and has ignored the deterioration in Australia-China…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global

An Update On The Global Pandemic

November 05, 2020

Summary 1% of Belgium’s population contracted the virus last week. This is the highest weekly increase in population-adjusted cases on record. France,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bonds EM Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Why Has the Indian Rupee Been So Weak?

November 05, 2020

Summary INR performance has lagged other Asian currencies over recent months after the strong rally in August. A more pro-growth RBI and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

Lessons From The US Election

November 05, 2020

Summary Yet again, forecasters, pollsters and alarmists were wrong about the US election. It was much closer and more peaceful than expected.…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 04, 2020

Social Networks, Confirmation Bias and Shock Elections (INET, 24 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 04, 2020

Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation?  (Minneapolis Fed, 39 page read)  

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 04, 2020

Has the Stock Market Become Less Representative of the Economy (NBER, 35 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

November 04, 2020

A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth (NBER, 20 page read) What Comes Next? (BIS, 28 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Equities

Do Analysts Top Pick Recommendations Make Money?

November 04, 2020

Summary Investors and media outlets pay significant attention to analysts’ ‘top pick’ stock recommendations. This attention is justified: the picks offer large…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 03, 2020

Political polarisation and expected economic outcomes (VOX EU, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 03, 2020

Gridlock Is More Bullish Than Blue or Red Waves (DR. Ed’s Blog, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

November 03, 2020

It Is Time To Scrap the IMF's Reserve Adequacy Metric (CFR, 6 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Europe Fiscal Policy & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation UK

UK: Locking Down The Economic Ruins

November 03, 2020

Summary The UK government followed other European states into a sweeping nationwide lockdown. Such an aggressive response is more severe than I…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 02, 2020

Who Will Win the US Presidential Election? (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 02, 2020

Presidential Terms & Market Cycles (A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read) Seven scary charts – happy Halloween! (M&G Investments,4 min…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

What Are Final Expectations For The US 2020 Presidential Election?

November 02, 2020

 Summary Models and prediction markets are predicting a Democrat sweep (Biden to win, Democrats to gain Senate, and retain House) Biden is…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

Macro Hive Guide To The US Election

November 02, 2020

With the election now less than 24 hours away we provide a Macro Hive guide to everything you need to know. We…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID US

The US Third Wave: Which States Fare Worse Pre-Election?

October 30, 2020

Just days away from the US election, the public health debate continues to dominate this year’s campaign. Here is an update on…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week Of 2 November

October 30, 2020

Monetary Policy A very busy week for monetary policy with Fed and BoE policy meetings (both Thursday) plus the RBA (Tuesday). While…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics US

The US Presidential Election: The Possible Outcomes and Their Market Implications

October 29, 2020

Summary With the US economic recovery losing momentum amid political discord, it is not only the size but the timing of the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

M2 Spike Unlikely To Fuel CPI Inflation

October 29, 2020

Summary M2 has spiked but mainly with high-income households and nonfinancial corporations, which have a high propensity to save. This suggests limited…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

When Will We Know Who Won the US Election?

October 29, 2020

Summary Results should become clear late on election night (Tuesday) or the next morning. Mail-in voting shouldn’t cause significant delays in counting…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

October 28, 2020

The Changing Nature of Turkey’s Balance Sheet Risks (CFR, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 28, 2020

The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States (NBER, 41 page read)  

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

October 28, 2020

Trump's phase one trade deal with China and the US election (Peterson Institute For International Economics, 12 min read) How Likely Is…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

October 28, 2020

Assessing The Fiscal Implications Of Banking Crises (BIS, 17 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Bitcoin & Crypto

Digital Money: Why, When, And What It Could Mean

October 28, 2020

Introduction The transition to digital money is inevitable and imminent. According to the BIS, at least a fifth of the world’s population…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 27, 2020

Does The Price of Oil Even Matter Anymore? (A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

October 27, 2020

China Leads Again (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

October 27, 2020

The Changing Nature of Turkey’s Balance Sheet Risks (CFR, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds COVID Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation

ECB Preview: No New Policy Announcements Despite COVID Surge

October 27, 2020

Summary Rising COVID cases and new restrictions threaten the Euro area recovery ECB likely to acknowledge the rising downside risks but stop…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

October 26, 2020

The Psychology of Trump’s Debate Rudeness (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 26, 2020

The Great Debate On Value Investing (Invesco, 7 min read) Don’t Fear The Rise In Yields (Variant Perception, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

October 26, 2020

How Has China’s Economy Performed under the COVID-19 Shock? (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read)

Digital Currencies

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bitcoin & Crypto China Politics & Geopolitics

Digital Currencies, Take Three

October 26, 2020

The 2020 focus has been bitcoin’s rebound and efforts to develop CBDCs In the middle, the Facebook-led effort to promote stablecoins has…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

October 23, 2020

Machine Learning the News for Better Macroeconomic Forecasting (Bank Underground, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

October 23, 2020

Engines Not Yet in Sync: A Multispeed Recovery in Asia (IMF Blog, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 23, 2020

  Bank of England: Six Answers On Negative Interest Rates  (ING Bank, 7 min read)  Bank Capital, Loan Liquidity, and Credit Standards…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

October 23, 2020

China’s Surplus is Rising Rapidly. So is the U.S. Deficit. The IMF Cannot Turn a Blind Eye (Brad Setser, 3 min read) 

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

US Election – 11 Days To Go

October 23, 2020

The final Trump-Biden debate is now over. It was a more civilized affair than the first, helped by a format change that…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week Of 26 October

October 23, 2020

Monetary Policy Thursday’s ECB meeting is expected to bring a strong commitment to do more given the renewed wave of COVID cases…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 22, 2020

Investors Need to Become More Comfortable With Volatility in Their Portfolios (A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read) How will the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

October 22, 2020

China: seven things investors should know (LGIM Blog, 3 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Fiscal Policy & Inequality Global

The Fiscal Response To COVID: A Global Ranking

October 22, 2020

The global fiscal response to COVID is $11.7trn, or almost 12% of GDP, according to the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor. Around half…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Monetary Policy & Inflation US

US TIPS vs Gold, Part 3: From Inflation to Real Rates

October 22, 2020

Summary TIPS-implied real rates are being driven lower by supply/demand imbalances, the Fed’s forward guidance on interest rates and balance-sheet policies, and…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 21, 2020

Does Mining Fuel Bubbles? An Experimental Study On Cryptocurrency Markets (University of Heidelberg, 19 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

October 21, 2020

Banking across borders: Are Chinese banks different? (BIS, 20 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 21, 2020

Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications (IMF, 34 page read) Quantitative Easing Policies And Exchange Rates (VoxEU, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

October 21, 2020

Post COVID-19 Exit Strategies and Emerging Markets Economic Challenges (NBER, 20 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Bitcoin & Crypto Credit

Limitless Potential – Is DeFi Coming Of Age?

October 21, 2020

Article Overview Decentralised finance (DeFi) is a catch-all term for protocols and applications (dapps) in the cryptocurrency space. Where Initial Coin Offerings…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 20, 2020

The Next Phase For Bitcoin (Seeking Alpha, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

October 20, 2020

Why category leading brick and mortar retailers are likely the biggest long term COVID beneficiaries (Gavin Baker,13 min read) Machine learning the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

October 20, 2020

Behind the Stability in China’s Currency: Beijing’s Hidden Hand (Barron’s, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bitcoin & Crypto China Economic Growth

China’s Winning Formula To Boost Consumption

October 20, 2020

Summary China’s 6-month experiment with CBDC has scaled up, with the recent Shenzen test the biggest so far The bank-based nature of…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global

Is COVID-19 Beginning To Transmit To The Vulnerable?

October 19, 2020

Overview Last week, France, Italy, Germany and the UK all recorded their largest daily increase in new cases since mass testing began…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

October 19, 2020

Green bond issuance set to double by 2023 after hitting $1trn (Expert Investor, 2 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

October 19, 2020

Bidenomics versus Trumponomics (OMFIF, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 19, 2020

Who’s Afraid of Rules-Based Monetary Policy? (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 19, 2020

Do Bonds Still Provide Diversification? (Charles Schwab, 8 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives |

Macro Hive Webinar: How Markets Trade Around US Elections, Chinese Yuan To Strengthen & Live Q&A

October 16, 2020

Andrew Simon and I really enjoyed talking to everyone on Wednesday on our first-ever live public webinar, so thank you to those who…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 16, 2020

The Fed Is Almost Out Of U.S. Treasuries To Buy (Seeking Alpha, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

October 16, 2020

How Have Households Used Their Stimulus Payments and How Would They Spend the Next? (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

October 16, 2020

Fiscal Policy for an Unprecedented Crisis (IMF Blog, 3 min read) Pandemics and inequality: A historical overview (Vox EU, 7 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week Of 19 October

October 16, 2020

Monetary Policy Monetary policy meetings are concentrated in EM during the coming week. China and Hungary are on Tuesday, followed by Turkey,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID EM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Bullish KRW As Recovery Gathers Pace

October 16, 2020

Summary KRW is Asia’s best-performing currency since the start of September The recovery is slowing picking up and exports are rebounding Still-low…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 15, 2020

Negative rates explained: should UK investors prepare? (Schroders,6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

October 15, 2020

A long, uneven and uncertain ascent (IMF blog, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 15, 2020

Has gold gotten too expensive? (The Felder Report, 1 min read) What does the future of energy look like? (JP Morgan Asset…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID EEMEA EM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Shekel: A High-Tech EM Safe Haven

October 15, 2020

Summary High-tech boom a key factor of Israel’s BoP improvement. Israeli investors partially hedge the C/A recycling, supporting the shekel. FX intervention…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Credit Equities US

Loan Credit Quality Holding Up Well, But Banks Face Other Challenges

October 15, 2020

Summary Bank 3Q earnings reports show realized credit losses have yet to rise above pre-Covid levels. Bankruptcy data shows similar pattern. Credit…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation US

A Jobless Recovery?

October 15, 2020

Summary Even with more fiscal support, the mid-year economic bounce is likely to turn into a sluggish, jobless recovery. As a result,…

In: Deep Dives | ESG & Climate Change Global Labour Market & Inequality

Which Country Has the Best-Quality Elites?

October 14, 2020

Executive Summary Elite members of economies currently face intense scrutiny, yet not all are created equal. Academics at the University of St.…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

October 13, 2020

Building ESG momentum in US equities (Amundi, 7 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 13, 2020

Don’t mix your politics with your portfolio (A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read) Volatility, the vote and taking the long…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

October 13, 2020

Scotland after Sterling (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

Will Democrats Protest The Election Results?

October 13, 2020

While many have focused on whether President Trump will protest the November election results, another possibility is that Democrats could. After all,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Reports Of The Bond Market’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

October 13, 2020

Summary The recent 63 business days of price action has a strong influence on the direction of yields, where providing yields do…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

October 12, 2020

Post-COVID Capitalism (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 12, 2020

Gold: Less a Hedge, More a Rates Play (BlackRock,3 min read) Building Bond Portfolios on a Strong Housing Market (Janus Henderson,6 min…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

October 12, 2020

Global connectedness and market power make firms more resilient to domestic COVID-19 shocks (Vox EU, 6 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID UK

The UK’s ‘Bleak Mathematics’

October 12, 2020

With Prime Minister Boris Johnson unveiling a new three-level alert system, we look at the ongoing COVID-19 developments in the UK. Cases…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

October 09, 2020

3 Reasons to Expect Election Result Delays (Schwab, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 09, 2020

COVID-19 and the new age of copper: Opportunities for Latin America (Vox EU, 5 min read) The 7 Things That Matter For Markets…

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Global Monetary Policy & Inflation

Which Country Has The Cheapest iPhone?

October 09, 2020

Apple’s October ‘special event’ is just one week away, spelling the arrival of a new iPhone – probably the 12. In the…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week Of 12 October

October 09, 2020

Monetary Policy The IIF’s five-day, virtual, annual meeting will feature panels with a number of central bank officials including Kuroda, de Guindos…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 08, 2020

Which stock markets look cheap as we enter the final quarter of 2020? (Schroders,6 min read) Secular Outlook Takeaways: Escalating Disruption (Pimco,12…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

October 08, 2020

The Core of the ECB’s New Strategy (Project Syndicate,4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics UK

Will Scotland Leave The UK?

October 08, 2020

Summary Scottish parliament elections are scheduled for May 2021 Several factors suggest ‘Indyref2’ could happen within two years But ‘doctrine of unripe…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities FX Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics US

The Dollar Has Peaked: Update And Broad Market Implications

October 08, 2020

Summary The dollar could be losing its reserve currency status This could lead to higher US interests and less ability for the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

October 07, 2020

Unemployed With Jobs and Without Jobs (NBER, 18 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

October 07, 2020

One Belt, One Road, One Way? (Maastricht University, 23 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 07, 2020

Fifty Shades of QE: Central Bankers Versus Academic (VoxEU, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

October 07, 2020

Regional Heterogeneity and US Presidential Elections (INET, 35 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

October 07, 2020

Green Asset Pricing (ECB, 35 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Equities

Why ETFs Don’t Always Follow Their Underlying Market

October 07, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are one of the most popular investment vehicles. However, there have been persistent concerns…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

October 06, 2020

ESG investing looks like just another stock bubble (Advisor Perspectives, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

October 06, 2020

Biden's business tax plan: More complexity, questionable effect (PIIE, 8 min read) Elephant who lost its trunk: Continued growth in Asia, but…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

Does Trump Have Enough Time To Overturn Biden’s Lead?

October 06, 2020

With less than a month before the US election, Biden has made gains on Trump in prediction markets. While Trump returning to…

In: Hive Exclusives | Global Monetary Policy & Inflation

DM Monetary Policy Options Heading Into 2021

October 06, 2020

Summary DM monetary policy was more stable in Q3 than 2020H1; balance sheet expansion slowed. If further support is needed heading into…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 05, 2020

Election 2020: What will happen if the capital gains tax is increased?(Invesco Blog, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

October 05, 2020

Big budget spending isn’t new: it’s a return to what worked before (The Conversation,5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 05, 2020

The Eurosystem: An accident waiting to happen (Vox EU, 10 min read) The Danger of Following the Fed (Project Syndicate, 4 min…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Labour Market & Inequality US

US Labour Market Report Points To Growing Downside Risks

October 05, 2020

Summary The latest US labour market report shows some modest gains but most of the underlying detail was uniformly negative. Payroll employment…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week Of 5 October

October 02, 2020

Monetary Policy Fed minutes plus speeches from Chair Powell and Williams will be in focus this week. Several ECB officials, including President…

Fed Autopilot

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Is The Ship Of Fools On Autopilot?

October 02, 2020

At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in 2018 the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, used ‘navigating by the stars’ as…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global

Mobility And COVID-19 Cases Are Correlating With Equities

October 01, 2020

Summary: Deaths reach 1 million, placing COVID-19 among the top 20 deadliest pandemics Average daily deaths are now higher than most leading…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 01, 2020

Average inflation targeting and household expectations (Vox EU, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 01, 2020

Whither Oil? (Project Syndicate, 5 min read) 2020 Global Market Outlook – Q4 Update: The Old New Cycle (Russell Investments, 12 min…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Mounting Evidence Reveals Scale of Asian FX Intervention

October 01, 2020

Summary Singapore’s $44bn in FX intervention in H1 is the highest on UST watchlist RBI FX reserves are up $72bn YTD given…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Should Investors Fear Fed Helicopter Money?

October 01, 2020

Summary Two economists have proposed a scheme where the Fed would inject money directly to households, a form of helicopter money This…

Market Liquidity

In: Deep Dives | Bonds COVID Equities FX

How Market Liquidity Disappeared During The COVID-19 Crisis

September 30, 2020

The Essence of the Piece The Fed conducted a study on Treasury market liquidity during the height of the COVID-19 crisis. They…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

September 30, 2020

Covered Interest Parity in long-dated securities (Norges Bank, 33 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 30, 2020

In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis (NBER, 79 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

September 30, 2020

War, Socialism and the Rise of Fascism: An Empirical Exploration (NBER, 30 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

September 30, 2020

The Economics of Currency Risk (NBER, 24 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

September 30, 2020

US Housing Market during COVID-19: Aggregate and Distributional Evidence (IMF, 39 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 29, 2020

The physics of economic and financial distress (BlackRock, 6 min read) Emerging Market Bonds: Part of a Resilient Portfolio? (PIMCO, 3 min…

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Equities FX Politics & Geopolitics US

How Do Markets Trade Around US Elections?

September 29, 2020

Going into this year’s US presidential election, we have a Republican incumbent whose party currently holds majority control in the Senate but…

In: Hive Exclusives | EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Inflation Is Back, At Least In EM

September 29, 2020

Parts of emerging markets are starting to see rising inflation. This is the result of earlier currency depreciation, supply-side disruptions and rising…

In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Macro Hive Smart Investor Survey: Results

September 28, 2020

We are back with our smart investor survey. The respondents are mainly sophisticated investors and analysts from financial institutions covering both buy…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

September 28, 2020

How should I position my portfolio if inflation comes back? (JP Morgan Asset Management, 2 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 28, 2020

The Vise Tightens on the Dollar (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

September 28, 2020

Most Americans Want To Wait Until After The Election To Fill The Supreme Court Vacancy (FiveThirtyEight, 6 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Commodities Monetary Policy & Inflation Real Estate US

US TIPS vs Gold, Part 2: Inflation Hedges And Beyond

September 28, 2020

Both gold and TIPS can provide a suitable hedge for rising inflation, but which is better? In part 1 of this two-part…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events: Week Of 28 September

September 25, 2020

Monetary Policy The plethora of Fedspeak continues with Williams and Clarida among the scheduled speakers over the coming week. ECB officials will…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

September 24, 2020

Election 2020: What happens if we don’t know the results for a while?(Invesco, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

September 24, 2020

Fiscal, Not Monetary, to Determine Europe’s Inflation Path Ahead (Pimco,3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 24, 2020

U.S. Stock Performance During Past Presidential Elections (Janus Henderson, 4 min read) Should I be worried about the stock market correction? (JP…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Credit Equities US

High Yield Is Worth A Look

September 24, 2020

With high yield credit spreads near 540bp, is high yield a buy? Moody’s default rate outlook suggests it is, and that it…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Economic Growth Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Can The Recovery Continue Without New Relief?

September 24, 2020

Market concerns over a new COVID-19 relief bill could be overdone. This is because the household savings rate is extraordinarily high, and…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

September 23, 2020

“Buy British”: The Viability of a Nationalist Commercial Policy (VoxEU, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

September 23, 2020

Chinese Open Source Data Collection, Big Data, And Private Enterprise Work For State Intelligence and Security: The Case of Shenzhen Zhenhua (NBER,…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 23, 2020

Man vs. Machine Learning: The Term Structure of Earnings Expectations and Conditional Biases (NBER, 20 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

September 23, 2020

Forecasting the COVID-19 Recession and Recovery: Lessons from the Financial Crisis (ECB, 36 page read)

In: Deep Dives | FX

Excess Returns In FX Volatility Markets

September 23, 2020

The academic paper we review this week shows that a carry trade in volatility, a long-short strategy that buys implied volatility at…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

September 23, 2020

Greater inflation risks ahead (BlackRock, 5 pages read)

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global

Are Fewer COVID-19 Deaths Causing Complacency?

September 22, 2020

 As the COVID-19 second wave takes hold, differences in government responses appear unable to explain differences in infection rates across European countries.…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

How Far Could US Stocks Fall?

September 22, 2020

Global stocks have tumbled in recent days given a combination of fears over a second COVID wave in Europe, lingering disappointment over…

Courtroom

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

Will The Supreme Court Race Disrupt Biden’s Lead?

September 21, 2020

The recent death of liberal-leaning Supreme Court Justice Ruth Ginsburg has shifted political attention to who will pick the next Supreme Court…

In: Hive Exclusives | Europe FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

CHF: No Breather For The SNB

September 21, 2020

This Thursday’s Swiss National Bank (SNB) quarterly monetary policy meeting comes against a backdrop of Swiss franc (CHF) outperformance, with the currency…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 21, 2020

How Traders Used Google Searches To See The Economic Recovery In Real Time (Bloomberg Odd lots, 41 min listen) Bitcoin as an…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

September 21, 2020

Gold Will Outperform Stocks Until Inflation Surges  (Seeking Alpha, 4 min read) Why inflation in the US has been so stable since…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

September 21, 2020

What Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Death Means for America (The Atlantic, 5 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Global Macro Monetary Policy & Inflation

Key Events

September 21, 2020

Monetary Policy After a flurry of major DM central bank meetings last week, this week is quiet in terms policy meetings. There…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

September 18, 2020

What We Learned-And What We Didn't- From the September 2020 Powell Press Conference (Notes on crises, 6 min read) Why inflation in…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 18, 2020

Michael Green on Detecting The Greatest Value In Markets Today (Superinvestors,60 min listen)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

September 18, 2020

How Traders Used Google Searches To See The Economic Recovery In Real Time (Bloomberg Odd lots, 41 min listen) Hedge Fund Family…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 17, 2020

Dollar demise or just a blip? (GAM Investment, 6 mins) Are equities expensive? (JP Morgan Asset Management, 2 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

September 17, 2020

Asian Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market is Back. Bigly (Brad Setser, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

September 17, 2020

The Big Cycles of China and Its Currency (Ray Dalio, 15 page read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds Commodities Monetary Policy & Inflation US

US TIPS vs Gold, Part 1: Understanding Inflation Is The First Step In Hedging It

September 17, 2020

The possibility of rising inflation on the horizon means investors should consider their hedging options. In this piece, we weigh up US…

Biden and Trump

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics & Geopolitics US

Biden And Trump Macroeconomic Convergence Points At Move To High Inflation Regime

September 17, 2020

The macroeconomic plans of the Biden and Trump campaigns are surprisingly similar and support a move to a high inflation regime. The…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

September 16, 2020

Information and Inequality in the Time of a Pandemic (IMF, 31 page read) The poor will bear most of an epidemic’s health costs…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

September 16, 2020

Will the AI Revolution Cause a Great Divergence? (IMF, 31 page read) The AI revolution is set to favour advanced countries and pull…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

September 16, 2020

Exchange Rates and Domestic Credit – Can Macroprudential Policy Reduce the Link? (IMF, 27 page read) Tighter macroprudential policy and targeted capital controls…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation UK

BoE Prepares For A QE Extension In November 2020

September 16, 2020

The BoE’s ongoing easing programme means it need not announce any policy change at this meeting. However, with insufficient room to continue…

In: Deep Dives | Credit

How Big Tech Lenders Will Disrupt The Business Cycle

September 16, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell A new BIS paper finds that Big Tech lenders using big data to assess creditworthiness hold informational…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

September 15, 2020

Issues arising from the new ‘Powell doctrine’ (Vox EU, 6 min read) Economist Ignazio Angeloni points out that AIT assumes past inflation…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 15, 2020

Follow Buffett into Japan (WisdomTree, 4 min read) Japanese general trading firms offer cheap valuation, attractive dividend yield, and provide an inflation…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

September 15, 2020

Lop-sided Chinese recovery (Twitter, 3 min read) Michael Pettis remains pessimistic on China despite the recent upbeat data. Faster growth in IP…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

What Are The Forecasts For A Trump Win?

September 15, 2020

A lot has happened in recent weeks. Anti-police and Black Lives Matter protests have continued, which some have speculated could help Trump.…

Fed Dovish Stance

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Monetary Policy & Inflation US

September 2020 FOMC Preview: Struggling To Enhance Their Extreme Dovish Stance

September 15, 2020

Economic uncertainty and recent signs of a slowing recovery suggest the Fed will maintain its cautious outlook and the 2021-22 Summary of…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Key Events

September 14, 2020

Monetary Policy Wednesday’s Fed meeting is the highlight of the week with Chair Powell set to give details on the shift to…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID Economic Growth EM FX

COVID-19 World Trade Damage To Services

September 14, 2020

The response of global goods trade to the Covid-19 crisis has been relatively benign Chinese exports have recovered; the country is leading…

GBPEUR

In: Hive Exclusives | Europe FX Politics & Geopolitics UK

A Week Of Contrasts For Euro And Pound

September 10, 2020

This mood music over the past few days has been in stark contrast between Frankfurt and London. ECB president Christine Lagarde today…

China Economy

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Monetary Policy & Inflation

China Economy Losing Steam

September 10, 2020

Chinese trade data earlier this week showed imports growth falling deeper into negative territory (-2.1% YoY), while credit data due in the…

BTC

In: Deep Dives | Bitcoin & Crypto

How Bitcoin Prices Are Manipulated

September 09, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell From 1 March 2017 to 31 March 2018, the actual Bitcoin price rose from around $1,191 to…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

Benefits from higher female representation plus the number of ESG ETS continue to rise

September 08, 2020

Economic Aspects of the Energy Transition (NBER) Paper argues that we are not correctly accounting for the increase in electricity prices. Forced…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

A digital yuan and US-China tensions plus China’s new alliance with Russia

September 08, 2020

Digital currency and the new cold war (OMFIF, 6 min read)Argues that China’s move into digital currency is a new front in…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

CS’s Pozsar on FX swaps intermediation at US banks plus the fractional volatility model

September 08, 2020

Global Money Dispatch (Credit Suisse, 17 page read) Zoltan Pozsar calculates the G-SIB risk scores for US banks and finds that JPM’s…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

More on the US election plus rising Greek-Turkey tensions

September 08, 2020

A Big Chunk of White Americans With Degrees And People Of Color Are Behind Trump (FiveThirtyEight, 3 min read) ‘If the race…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

AI does a better job than economists at forecasting and why EMs should avoid a services-orientated growth model

September 08, 2020

Furloughing (Cambridge INET, 34 page read) Women, and more specifically, mothers were most likely to be furloughed during the recent pandemic. They…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Why the UK chancellor should avoid raising taxes and how the US stimulus was saved, not spent

September 08, 2020

Raising taxes could tip us back into recession (The Article, 5 min read) George Magnus argues there is no need to raise…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

BoE admits QE doesn’t work and inflation differentials between AEs and EMs

September 08, 2020

Does quantitative easing boost bank lending to the real economy or cause other bank asset reallocation? The case of the UK (BoE,…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

How to position around the US election and everything you need to know about Amazon

September 08, 2020

Broadening election hedges (Morgan Stanley, Twitter, 1 min read) MS argues to sell equity vol and buy FX/rates vol around US election…

US Election

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics & Geopolitics US

Will The FBI Interfere In The US Elections Again?

September 08, 2020

In an era of information overload, it is surprising that there are still things that remain undiscussed. Take the upcoming US elections…

ECB Preview

In: Hive Exclusives | Europe FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

ECB Preview: All About The Euro

September 08, 2020

Euro strength and the current bout of deflation are set to dominate this week’s ECB meeting. We expect no policy announcements, but,…

Bitcoin and Equities

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto Equities US

Did Bitcoin, Rather Than Softbank, Lead The US Stock Sell-off?

September 07, 2020

It is now widely known that Softbank had engaged in significant buying of US tech stocks through options. But it was already…

Employment Report

In: Hive Exclusives | Labour Market & Inequality US

Will Good News In The August Labour Report Lead To More Bad News?

September 07, 2020

Last Friday’s August labour market report had elements of both glass-half-full and glass-half-empty news. On balance, the half-empty glass still looks bigger…

Africa Eurbond

In: Hive Exclusives | Credit EEMEA Fiscal Policy & Inequality

African Eurobond Issuers, Not All About Default

September 04, 2020

African Sovereign Eurobonds have lagged the broader EM rally Debt sustainability must be assessed on a country-by-country basis Transparency and financial innovation…

Equity Sell-off

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

5 Things You Need To Know About The US Stocks Collapse

September 04, 2020

US equities finally showed some weakness. The S&P500 fell 3.5% on Thursday, while the NASDAQ fell 5%. Here are five things you…

UK Economy

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Monetary Policy & Inflation UK

The Gloomy UK Economic Conundrum

September 03, 2020

Brexit uncertainty, the UK’s economic makeup, a dovish sounding Bank of England and a possible early end to fiscal stimulus are all…

Bullish INR

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID Economic Growth EM FX

Turning Positive On INR

September 03, 2020

New highs in India’s basic balance should support further INR strength Currency strength remains at odds with a very weak macro outlook…

Fed AIT

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Fed AIT, A New Salvo In The Undeclared Currency Wars?

September 03, 2020

Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) could be a net negative for the dollar as other global central banks appear unable or unwilling to…

In: Deep Dives | Global

High-Frequency Capital Flow Proxies Are Good At Predicting BoP Flows

September 02, 2020

Introduction Policymakers need timely information on capital flows to inform decisions on monetary policy and foreign exchange intervention. Official balance of payments…

Trump Election Odds

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Politics & Geopolitics US

Trump Re-election Odds Jump, As Does Chance Of Rising Market Uncertainty

September 02, 2020

Donald Trump’s chances of winning re-election on 3 November are rising. The likelihood of a Democrat sweep – and with it any…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

Pandemic brings ESG to the fore

September 01, 2020

Did ESG improve resiliency during Q1 (Jon Hale, 8 min read) Summarises recent academic papers and finds ‘companies valuing stakeholders during pandemic…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

The cost of urbanisation

September 01, 2020

Tsai authorities deserve a stern warning from Beijing (Global Times, 3 min read) Chinese editorial warns Taiwan about recent US aircraft recon…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Predicting COVID cases with Google data and capital controls and international flows

September 01, 2020

Short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic using Google Trends data: Evidence from 158 countries (Applied Econometrics, 27 page read) Finds Google data…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

Abe’s resignation and Germany after Merkel

September 01, 2020

Why Minnesota Could Be The Next Midwestern State To Go Red (FiveThirtyEight, 5 min read) ‘Most ominously for Democrats, there is evidence…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

IMF on the cost of FX stability and the ECB on the international impact of incomplete EMU

September 01, 2020

Covid-19 briefing: heterogeneous impacts of the pandemic (Bank Underground, 5 min read) Summarises recent literature finds ‘workers in jobs with close proximity…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

LSE on locating hidden wealth to boost tax revenues

September 01, 2020

Taxing hidden wealth: the consequences of U.S. enforcement initiatives on evasive foreign accounts (LSE, 58 page read) Finds a 2008 US effort…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

BoE on QE and bank lending plus the ECB on IMF conditionality and CB independence

September 01, 2020

Does Quantitative Easing Boost Bank Lending to the Real Economy or Cause other Bank Asset Reallocation? (BoE, 32 page read) During the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Michael Spence on the disconnect between valuations and the real economy

September 01, 2020

Governments have given us so much, do they have anything left to give? (GMO, 17 page read) GMO argues that HY credit…

Shinzo Abe

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Politics & Geopolitics

PM Abe’s Missed Opportunity To Make Japan Great Again

September 01, 2020

Last week’s surprise resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe raises questions over what’s next for the country. Abe’s political clout and…

Average Inflation

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Average Inflation Targeting: Positive For Markets, Less So For Consumer Prices

August 28, 2020

At Jackson Hole today Chair Powell announced a move to average inflation targeting, reflected in changes to the Statement of Longer Run…

Norway Bank

In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Norway: Is Norges Bank The Only Game In Town?

August 27, 2020

USD/NOK has finally broken below 9.00 in recent weeks after enormous turbulence in March. Although the usual drivers could explain this move…

US Election Ballot

In: Deep Dives | Equities Politics & Geopolitics US

US Elections And Stock Market Performance

August 26, 2020

With the US presidential elections a little over two months away, what can we infer from the existing body of literature around…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Politics & Geopolitics US

Economy, Not Conventions, Matter For Trump

August 26, 2020

Despite many firsts – the first virtual convention, the first woman of colour on a presidential ticket (Kamala Harris) – the Democratic…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

The definition problem and ESG in the food industry

August 25, 2020

Eat clean: The hottest trends as food moves into an ESG-conscious age (CityWire, 2 min read) ‘The way in which food is produced and…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

Struggling SMEs and Xi’s focus

August 25, 2020

China’s banks must innovate to help small businesses weather ‘complex and severe’ economic environment (SCMP, 4 min read) Suggests China’s small businesses are struggling.…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

Changing attitudes on US immigration and what if Trump disputes the election results

August 25, 2020

What Happens if Donald Trump Fights the Election Results? (New Yorker, 10 min read) Runs through historical cases of electoral games – but argues that…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

A k-shaped recovery and risks from LT unemployment

August 25, 2020

Mitigating Long-Term Unemployment in Europe (IMF, 24 page read) For those interested in EU labour markets, the COVID-19 pandemic could likely aggravate the long-term…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Inflation post COVID and the case against shadow rate models

August 25, 2020

Monitoring the Inflationary Effects of COVID-19 (FRBSF, 6 page read) San Fran Fed decomposes PCE inflation COVID categories. They find that the demand shock…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

IMF guide to capital flow data and the BoE on understanding capital flows

August 25, 2020

The Cross-Section of Currency Volatility Premia (Journal of Financial Economics, 18 page read) A zero-cost portfolio strategy that buys forward volatility agreements in currencies…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Skidelsky on crowding out and policy and poverty during the pandemic

August 25, 2020

Skidelsky on crowding out and policy and poverty during the pandemic Income and Poverty in the COVID-19 Pandemic (NBER, 65 page read) ‘Results indicate…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

PIMCO likes gold and GMO bearish on equities

August 25, 2020

Nouriel Roubini says reports of the dollar’s demise are greatly exaggerated (Marketwatch, 3 min read) Roubini argues that recent dollar weakness is due to…

Bullish RMB

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Bonds China FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

China: Keep The Faith

August 25, 2020

My discussions with macro investors have recently centred around two questions. First, could the RMB extend its gains further? And second, could…

Economics Planning

In: Hive Exclusives | Global Monetary Policy & Inflation

Resource Optimization vs Surplus Distribution: The Case For Modern State Economic Planning

August 25, 2020

(A punched card from the mid-20th century, used for data input, output and storage)   Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has finally hit…

In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Politics & Geopolitics

What Russia And Germany Want In Belarus

August 21, 2020

Belarus, one of the few remaining autocratic regimes in the post-Soviet space, is in the middle of an acute political crisis. Acting…

Currency War

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds FX Global Monetary Policy & Inflation

The Return Of Global Currency Wars

August 20, 2020

A strong dollar can be a problem for the global economy (especially highly indebted emerging markets). But on the other end of…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Spike In MBA Delinquencies Shows Debt Forbearance Is Having Intended Effect

August 20, 2020

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Q2 delinquency spike likely overstates the extent of delinquencies and suggests that the administration debt forbearance policy…

Bitcoin Gold

In: Hive Exclusives | Bitcoin & Crypto Commodities US

Could US Tech Companies Start Buying Gold And Bitcoin?

August 20, 2020

US corporate cash holdings have risen to record highs in recent years, both outright and as a percentage of net worth. A…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID EM FX

Korean FX Markets To Ignore COVID Second Wave

August 20, 2020

USD/KRW has stabilised around 1185 – its post-COVID lows – in recent weeks. This comes even as Korea faces a second wave…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Global Monetary Policy & Inflation

The Inflation Outlook In A Post-Covid World

August 20, 2020

• Global inflation fell sharply in the early months of the Covid-19 crisis, mainly because of oil • Core inflation fell most…

Hedge Funds and Asset Managers

In: Deep Dives | Bonds UK

How Hedge Funds And Asset Managers Make Money In Bonds

August 19, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell There has always been a question of how hedge funds and asset managers make money. By exploiting…

Gold Peak

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities US

Peak Gold?

August 18, 2020

The sharp decline in gold prices last week has triggered heated debate among market participants. The bulls argue that this is just…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

Making the case for ESG, and providing green-conditional debt relief

August 18, 2020

ESG Disclosure Trends in SEC Filings (White and Case, 10 min read) “Every company surveyed increased its ESG disclosures in at least…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

Rogoff on China’s real estate, and former Biden advisor talks China strategy

August 18, 2020

Peak China Housing (NBER, 44 page read) Ken Rogoff et al do a deep dive on China real estate and argues that…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

Trump is heading into the elections all guns blazing

August 18, 2020

Just How Far Will Trump Go? (The Atlantic, 5 min read) President Trump seems to be weaponizing virtually every component of the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

Using the yield curve to predict, and economic fundamentals to inform on policy

August 18, 2020

Investor Sentiment, Sovereign Debt Mispricing and Economic Outcomes (IMF, 18 page read) A country’s underlying fundamentals must inform on its fiscal strategy…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

IMF and ECB stress tests show US and EU vulnerability

August 18, 2020

United States: Financial System Stability Assessment (IMF, 79 page read) Pre-pandemic, a rise in corporate leverage and the migration of risks to…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

FinTech dominance, bond market predictions and global trade data

August 18, 2020

Risk and Return in International Corporate Bond Markets (ECB, 55 page read) Average corporate bond returns increase with risk, something the world…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Policy challenges, trade openness and the economic impacts of inequality

August 18, 2020

The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures (IMF, 27 page read) NO2 emissions, flight data, energy consumption, maritime trade and mobility are…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Equities are bouncing back quickly, and risk-taking is related to bonuses and DNA

August 18, 2020

Molecular Genetics, Risk Aversion, Return Perceptions and Stock Market Participation (NBER, 39 page read) Paper suggests that genetic endowments are shown to…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The US Treasury’s Cash Management Could Undermine Fed Independence

August 13, 2020

The Treasury Government Account (TGA), which is the US Treasury’s checking account at the Fed, has become so large that the Fed…

In: Hive Exclusives | EM Europe FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Turkey: Doing It Again!

August 13, 2020

Turkish policymakers have returned to the populist policies of yesteryear that pushed the country to the brink in 2018, when inflation surged…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Equities

Equities Care About Vaccines, Not Second Waves

August 13, 2020

Numerous countries are experiencing second waves of COVID-19 infections – not that you would know from their equity market performance. Take the…

In: Deep Dives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

FinTech And BigTech Are Taking Over

August 12, 2020

The Context A new IMF paper looks at how innovations in information and communication have (i) provided greater opportunities for new financial…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID EM Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations With Dr Reza Baqir

August 11, 2020

We were delighted to have serving Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (2019-current) and 18-year veteran of the IMF Dr Reza…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Ed Yardeni on bullish bonds and Morgan Stanley on bullish USD

August 11, 2020

May the Bond Vigilantes Rest in Peace (Dr Ed’s Blog, 8 min read) Long-time bond follower Ed Yardeni argues that the Fed won’t raise…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

How firms with intangible assets respond less to changes in monetary policy

August 11, 2020

Financial Markets and News About the Coronavirus (Vox EU, 8 min read) During the early stages of the pandemic, markets overreacted to ‘uninformative news’.…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Yanis Varoufakis on why the EU recovery fund will divide Europe and how ageing economies benefit less from fiscal stimulus

August 11, 2020

Solidarity With the Germans (Project Syndicate, 5 min read) Former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis believes the EU Recovery Fund will divide Europe, not…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

How the economic outcomes from the COVID recession are counterintuitive and the value of luck for CEO’s in the labour market

August 11, 2020

The Most Counterintuitive Recession Ever (A Wealth of Common Sense, 4 min read) In 2Q household debt and delinquency of these debts has fallen…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

How Turkey is acting like Russia and how tackling fake news requires us to recognize our own misperceptions

August 11, 2020

Regional Variations in the Brexit Vote: Causes and Potential Consequences (IZA, 18 page read) It has been extensively documented that age and education were…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Investment implications of a weaker dollar

August 11, 2020

Which Investments Benefit From a Weaker Dollar? (A Wealth of Common Sense,3 min read) ‘In years of dollar weakness [since 1978], foreign stocks have…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

Why Chinese bond yields are rising whilst global yields are falling and how the US may lose the TikTok War

August 11, 2020

China’s Higher Bond Yields Buck the Global Trend (Advisor Perspectives, 4 min read) Chinese bond yields are rising while global bonds are falling due…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

Global sustainable fund achieves record level inflow

August 11, 2020

Global Sustainable Fund Assets Leap to All-Time High (Expert Investor, 6 min read) Morningstar reports assets in sustainable funds achieved a record…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Indian Rupee Weakness Expected

August 06, 2020

USD/INR has struggled to break below 74.50 over the past month even as the dollar (DXY) has weakened. This reflects a broader…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Taiwan Dollar Strength Could Continue

August 06, 2020

The Taiwan dollar (TWD) has recently started to show some strength – it was up almost 1% against the dollar in the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Global Monetary Policy & Inflation

MMT: A Free Lunch? Or A Stale, Old Lunch In A Shiny New Lunchbox? (Part II)

August 06, 2020

In Part I of this series I examined a few popular, mainstream critiques of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and concluded that they…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Inflation In The 21st Century Is A Supply-Side Phenomenon

August 06, 2020

‘It is habitually assumed that whenever there is a greater amount of money in the country, or in existence, a rise of…

Coronavirus Immigration

In: Deep Dives | COVID ESG & Climate Change

Early Border Closures Can Control COVID-19 Caseloads

August 05, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. Almost no country has…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

Google issues ESG bond

August 04, 2020

Environment, Social and Governance Risks Are Financial Risks (Russell Investments, 8 min read) Selecting securities without considering ESG is risky. For example,…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

How better Iran relationship can give China more control of Asia, and why Biden is bullish for Chinese equity

August 04, 2020

China Plays the Iran Card (Project Syndicate, 5 min read) Former senior adviser to US state department Vali Nasr and scholar Ariane…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Google Trends as a proxy for investor sentiment, and using options to predict Japanese stock performance

August 04, 2020

Informed Trading in Government Bond Markets (BOE, 25 page read) A great paper that uses regulatory data to assess the predictive power…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

Nouriel Roubini on 2020 white swans, and how postponement of elections could make Biden president

August 04, 2020

Revisiting the White Swans of 2020 (Project Syndicate, 7 min read) Nouriel Roubini re-states major risks for 2020. These include: Russia using…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

How commodity prices explain economic activity

August 04, 2020

Does the Commodity Super Cycle Matter? (NBER, 26 page read) It doesn’t, really, when it comes to world growth. Yet the paper…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Joseph Stiglitz calls for EM debt buybacks

August 04, 2020

How to Prevent the Looming Sovereign-Debt Crisis (Project Syndicate, 8 min read) Joseph Stiglitz highlights how around 100 low- and middle-income countries…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Central banks are trapped with low rates

August 04, 2020

Time inconsistency in recent monetary policy (Vox EU, 15 min read) Goodhart highlights the problems with low and negative rates such as…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Gold and credit are in favour, and doubts around ongoing dollar weakness

August 04, 2020

Why Is Gold Rising? (A Wealth of Common Sense, 5 min read) First, real interest rates are falling – since 2008, the…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID

Lady Sings The Market Blues?

August 03, 2020

Trawling Netflix for interesting viewing, as you do these days to relieve ennui, I came across the 2018 docufilm on Eric Clapton,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam All Risk ‘Currency Manipulator’ Label

July 30, 2020

The forthcoming US Treasury FX manipulation report will probably add several Asian countries to its watchlist. It may even go so far…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Labour Market & Inequality US

US Growth Back To Full Speed Ahead?

July 30, 2020

The recovery is likely to move sideways for a month or so before restarting due to the implementation of the new COVID-19 budget package and a…

Fed Dovish

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Monetary Policy & Inflation US

July FOMC Preview: The Setup For Dovish September Policy Moves?

July 29, 2020

This past year feels like a blur for all the obvious reasons. But before the all-out blitzkrieg easing campaign that the Fed…

Mobility

In: Deep Dives | COVID Global

Mobility, Not Lockdown Easing, Will Drive The Recovery

July 29, 2020

Changing Behaviour is More Important Than Easing Lockdown Measures The COVID-19 pandemic has dealt both health and economic blows. As new data…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

Why some ESG companies outperform

July 28, 2020

ESG Investing Stands Out During COVID-19 Volatility (Invesco, 4 min read) Invesco compared S&P 500 performance with top-ranked ESG companies within its…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

Yu Yongding on China’s policy dilemmas, and Michael Pettis on the importance of institutional reform

July 28, 2020

China’s Fiscal Dilemma (Project Syndicate, 6 min read) Yu Yongding, former monetary policy committee member of PBoC, highlights the dilemma the Chinese…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Changing characteristics of haven assets, and FX/capital flow co-movement during global stress

July 28, 2020

The Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Safe-Haven Assets (Vox EU, 7 min read) ‘The findings suggest that the character of safe-haven…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

How black voters can boost Biden’s chances of winning the presidency, and El-Erian on US-China tensions

July 28, 2020

Is a China-US ‘Rivalry Partnership’ Possible? (Project Syndicate, 6 min read) The chief economic adviser at Allianz, Mohamed El-Erian, believes Sino-American escalation…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

PPP programme and US employment, and why teleworking jobs are less vulnerable during recessions

July 28, 2020

Unemployment in Today’s Recession Compared to the Global Financial Crisis (IMF Blog, 2 min read) Unemployment in teleworkable jobs remained lower both…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

JP bullish on Europe, and country-level analysis of government actions and their COVID outcome

July 28, 2020

Is the EU Recovery Fund a Game-Changer for Investing in Europe? (JPM Asset Management, 2 min read) ‘Countries across Europe now have…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Nathan Tankus on large CB balance sheets, and how YCC can increase market volatility

July 28, 2020

The Way People Talk About the Federal Reserve’s ‘Big’ Balance Sheet is All Wrong (Notes on Crisis, 7 min read) A large…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Stephen Roach on the USD decline, and bullish calls on gold

July 28, 2020

Gold Is Within Striking Distance of Its All-Time High. Here’s How to Play the Rally (Advisor Perspectives, 6 min read) Frank Holmes…

US Treasury Note

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds COVID Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Limited Upside To Yields – Until Funding Competition Resumes

July 24, 2020

Despite the extraordinary US budget deficit, a very dovish Fed and depressed private investment suggest the Treasury could term out some of…

INR Outlook

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID Economic Growth EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Asia FX Outlook – Why INR Continues To Defy Gloomy Outlook

July 23, 2020

- CNY appreciation to continue despite mixed signals on recovery - C/A dynamics support INR, but economic outlook remains weak - Gloomy…

China Growth

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China Labour Market & Inequality Politics & Geopolitics US

China Growth Tracker – Still Strong Even With More US-China Tensions

July 23, 2020

We recently published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real-time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly…

In: Deep Dives | Equities Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality US

Trump Tax Cuts – Which Sectors Were the Eventual Winners?

July 22, 2020

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act – Some Win, Some Lose, Markets Got It Wrong On the 22 December 2017, President Trump…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

DoL’s new rule on ESG holding in 401ks, and how natural disaster can trigger sovereign defaults

July 21, 2020

BlackRock Shows Resolve and Restraint in Public Climate Test (Advisor Perspectives, 4 min read) BlackRock screened 244 companies that weren’t doing enough…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

Decoding the UK sanction on China, and why JP likes Chinese Equities

July 21, 2020

China’s Deepening Geopolitical Hole (Project Syndicate, 6 min read) Minxin Pei sees the UK’s action to ban Huawei 5G network as a…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

The role of yield curves in predicting FX, and the macro factors driving equity and bond risks

July 21, 2020

Uncovering Uncovered Interest Parity: Exchange Rates, Yield Curves and Business Cycles (Bank Underground, 8 min read) The slope of the yield curve…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

Potential NATO disintegration, and the factors driving populism

July 21, 2020

NATO Is Dying (Project Syndicate, 7 min read)Ex foreign minister of Spain Ana Palacio believes that without US leadership NATO may disintegrate.…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

Krugman on upcoming financial distress in the US, and disincentives of LT cash transfers to the poor

July 21, 2020

The Next Disaster Is Just a Few Days Away (NY Times, 6 min read) Nobel laureate Paul Krugman considers cancellation of the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Why expectations of further US fiscal stimulus might disappoint SPX, and how rising stocks lead to inequality

July 21, 2020

Investors Perhaps Too Enthusiastic About Future Fiscal Stimulus (Janus Henderson, 6 min read) After analysing Fed meetings, speeches, and beige book releases,…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Russel Napier on inflation, and how CPI weights could underestimate inflation during COVID

July 21, 2020

Central Banks Have Become Irrelevant (The Market, 11 min read) Scottish market strategist Russel Napier saw disinflation as the dominant theme for…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Amundi likes US fixed income, and echoes of bearish 60/40 portfolio from Man and KKR

July 21, 2020

10 Major Investment Implications (and 32 charts!) of a Weak US Dollar (Advisor Perspectives, 7 min read) Segments of the stocks market…

US Dollar

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Dollar Dominance In The Age Of COVID

July 21, 2020

[Bullish Dollar] The virus has catalysed more, perhaps, than it has caused. Established trends in geopolitics, economics, financial markets, public policy, and…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID Europe

EU Recovery Fund Agreement To Set Tone For The Summer

July 21, 2020

After four days of negotiations, EU27 leaders have agreed a landmark deal on a European recovery fund and the next seven-year budget.…

COVID Fragile 5

In: Hive Exclusives | Bonds COVID EM Fiscal Policy & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation

The C-19 Crisis And The Fragile-5

July 21, 2020

The Fragile-5 recovered quickly from the capital flow shock in March, and rates have fallenThe yield decline reflects a steep markdown in…

Asia FX Momentum

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Global

How Asia FX Futures Can Improve FX Momentum Strategy Performance

July 20, 2020

G10 FX momentum strategies have delivered poor returns over the past decade.Part of this could be due to a lack of diversification;…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Three Conditions For A Lasting Inflation Acceleration

July 16, 2020

[Bearish Bonds, Stocks, USD / Bullish TIPS & Gold] A spike in inflation is likely when the US economy normalizes. Beyond that,…

In: Hive Exclusives |

Macro Hive Smart Investor Survey: Results

July 16, 2020

We recently surveyed our Macro Hive network. The respondents were mainly sophisticated investors and analysts from financial institutions covering both buy and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Labour Market & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation

MMT: A Free Lunch? Or A Stale, Old Lunch In A Shiny New Lunchbox? (Part I)

July 16, 2020

MMT in a Nutshell, and Mainstream Criticism With government deficits exploding around the world as economic officials seek to counter the various…

In: Deep Dives | Bonds Monetary Policy & Inflation US

UST Liquidity: Safe-Haven Status At Risk Or A Sign Of B/S Constraints?

July 15, 2020

What is liquidity? In market parlance, it’s the idea that investors have the ability to quickly buy or sell an asset without…

In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation

Europe Preview: EU Summit To Set Summer Mood

July 15, 2020

The next few days could mark an important turning point for Europe. Agreement on a €750bn EU recovery fund, even if only…

In: Deep Dives | Asia EM FX

The Diversification Benefits Of Asia FX Futures

July 15, 2020

‘Emerging’ Asia economies are now as large as advanced economies, yet investors continue to show bias towards trading developed markets.At the same…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

COVID Paradox and BoE decodes the role of CB’s swap lines during dollar shortages

July 14, 2020

Covid-19 Cases Are Rising, So Why Are Deaths Falling? (Defense One, 9 min read) Deaths lag cases by up to a month,…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

ESG as a factor disappoints

July 14, 2020

Factor Research for the Corporate Bond Market (FactSet, 6 min read) Low Risk (low overall debt burden factors like debt/EBITDA and debt/FFO)…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

Herbert Poenisch draws comparison of renminbi to 1960s Eurodollar market, and how China is not engaging in global negative externalities

July 14, 2020

Eurodollar Lessons for Hong Kong Renminbi (OMFIF, 4 min read) The Eurodollar market in London in the 1960s played an essential role…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

Former UK prime minister on education in poorer countries, and how Trump’s young base is eroding

July 14, 2020

President Trump is Losing Support Among Young White Working-Class Voters (Brookings, 4 min read) Survey results reveal that white working-class voters below…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

JPAM on double dip recession in the US, and LGIM on why they think the US economy is running out of stream

July 14, 2020

Expectations Diverge for Economic Recovery in the US and China (Invesco, 3 min read) Both the US and Chinese stock markets have…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Schroders on UK budget, and why cutting US unemployment benefit will be catastrophic

July 14, 2020

UK Mini Budget Delivers Minimal Boost (Schroders, 5 min read) Policy changes announced will not have a massive impact on job creation…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

How monetary policy leads to happiness, and William Blair on monetary regime change

July 14, 2020

The Death of the Inflation Regime (William Blair, 9 min read) William Blair outlines the negative impact of the current monetary practices…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Amundi on EU Cyclicals, and Robert Shiller on how FOMO caused the S&P 500 rally

July 14, 2020

Time to Play a Cyclical Recovery in European Equity (Amundi, 17 pages read) Amundi is bullish European cyclicals due to the following…