James Leitner

Macro Hive Author

SPECIALITY:

James Leitner serves as President of Falcon Management Corporation, a family office. Jim is on the Yale President’s Council on International Activities and formerly served on the Yale Investment Committee (2004 – 2010) and Yale Honorary Degree Committee (2001- 2004).

MY ARTICLES

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

March 04, 2021

How institutional investment funds’ reach for yield intensifies asset price volatility (VoxEU, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

March 04, 2021

Biden impact on ESG investing will go deeper than climate (OMFIF, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

March 04, 2021

The Evidence Is in on Negative Interest Rate Policies (IMF Blog, 3 min read) Is Inflation Alive? (Project Syndicate, 8 min read)…

In: Hive Exclusives | Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain

Bitcoin’s ‘Lightning Network’ Let-Down, Part 1: A Solution to One Problem, a Source of Another

March 04, 2021

Summary Bitcoin's institutional acceptance continues apace, supporting the price. But bitcoin consumes an ever-growing amount of power, raising long-term concerns. A proposed…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asset Allocation Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation

Can Housing Withstand Higher Rates?

March 04, 2021

Summary Rising rates have sparked alarm over inflation and the possible Fed response. But so far, few have wondered how the broader…

In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain Investment Strategy Quant

Podcast Transcript: Ciamac Moallemi On Quant Investing, Machine Learning and Trading Styles

March 04, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Ciamac Moallemi, Professor of Business in the Decision, Risk, and Operations Division…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

March 03, 2021

Portfolios for Long-Term Investors (NBER, 48 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

March 03, 2021

Global Pricing of Carbon-Transition Risk (NBER, 28 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

March 03, 2021

How much stress could Covid put on corporate credit? Evidence using sectoral data (BIS, 12 min read) Corporate Liquidity and Solvency in…

In: Deep Dives | ESG & Climate Change

Do ESG Ratings Affect IPO Valuations?

March 03, 2021

Summary A new Journal of Corporate Finance paper shows that higher country-level ESG ratings are associated with lower IPO underpricing. IPOs issued…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

March 02, 2021

Will Capital Flows through Global Banks Support Economic Recovery? (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read) Staying Afloat: New Measures to Support European…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

March 01, 2021

Private sector’s retreat jeopardises rebound (OMFIF, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

March 01, 2021

An Open Letter to Joe Biden on International Corporate Taxation (Project Syndicate, 4 min read) The comeback of ‘r > g’ (VoxEU,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The Fed is Failing

March 01, 2021

The Fed’s failure is neither that rates volatility has picked up nor that equity markets fell last week. Rather, it is that…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

February 26, 2021

A deep learning algorithm for optimal investment strategies (ARXIV, 13 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

February 26, 2021

Pulling Up the Inflation Anchor (Project Syndicate, 3 min read)    

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

February 26, 2021

Cloudy with a chance of tariffs: the impact of policy uncertainty on the global economy (Bank Underground, 6 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | FX

BRL is Cheap, But Not Yet a Buy

February 26, 2021

Summary Petrobras CEO's dismissal could signal the start of a populist spiral ahead of Brazil’s 2022 presidential election. The BCB will hike…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asset Allocation Equities

Stop Buying Stuff, Plan to Splurge on Fun Activities Instead

February 25, 2021

Summary Goods-oriented consumption has soared over the past year and spurred a strong rally in the retail XRT ETF, especially since the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asset Allocation Investment Strategy

Podcast Transcript: Jay Pelosky on the Coming Boom, Mega-Tech Weakness and Big Government

February 25, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory and former top ranked head of…

In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Can the S&P 500 Help Forecast Changes in the USD?

February 24, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper examines which models are best for forecasting the nominal exchange rate. It finds evidence that the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

February 22, 2021

Pandemics swing elections, but not as much as you think (VoxEU, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

February 22, 2021

The Draghi Power Triangle (Project Syndicate, 4 min read) Structural Factors and Central Bank Credibility Limit Inflation Risks (IMF Blog, 5 min…

In: Hive Exclusives | Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain

Bitcoin: A Bet on Reflation, Not the Dollar’s Demise

February 22, 2021

Bitcoin is up almost 90% this year. Many crypto enthusiasts think this signals that bitcoin will replace the dollar in the global…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

February 22, 2021

Biden’s Good Start on China (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

February 19, 2021

Another disinflationary force vanishes: The tightening of bank equity capital regulation (VoxEU, 6 min read) Public and Private Money Can Coexist in…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Equities FX

Which Countries Will Reach Covid-19 Herd Immunity in 2021?

February 19, 2021

Summary Vaccination rollouts are accelerating, and global Covid-19 cases are dropping. Early data from Israel suggests vaccinations are working, with hospitalised patients’…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Biden’s Big Infrastructure Plan: What’s in it for Investors?

February 18, 2021

Summary President Biden aims for a large-scale infrastructure program with his upcoming four-year $1.9tn plan. But it is unlikely to be enacted…

In: Deep Dives | China & Hong Kong Growth & Labour Market

What Is Driving Chinese Growth?

February 17, 2021

Summary A BIS working paper creates a new alternative measure for estimating China GDP growth. The measure uses provincial macroeconomic data and…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

February 16, 2021

Economic costs of inequitable vaccine distribution across the world (VoxEU, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

February 16, 2021

How Will Our Children Know They Face a Crushing Debt Burden? (CEPR, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

February 16, 2021

Do banks need belts and braces? (Bank Underground, 7 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Investment Strategy Rates

Podcast Transcript: Christian Hille on Exponential Growth, Avoiding Low Returns, and Errors in Risk Management

February 16, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Christian Hille, the General Manager and Head of Wealth Management at Fürstlich-Castell’sche…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Rates

Higher US Yields Are Good for Equities

February 16, 2021

Many say that higher US bond yields will derail the US equity rally. Yet, US 10y yields have more than doubled to…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain

Tesla Bitcoin Bombshell: The Trickle May Turn to a Flood

February 12, 2021

Summary US corporate cash piles continue to grow but earn near zero interest Tesla's decision to reallocate to gold and bitcoin could…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics

US House Prices Outperforming Expectations

February 11, 2021

Summary The US housing market had a stellar year in 2020, recording YoY growth rates last seen in 2005. Housing transaction data…

In: Deep Dives | Economics Investment Strategy

Successful Start-Ups Build Strong Founding Teams

February 10, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper investigates the importance of founding members to the long-term success of start-ups. Start-ups with higher-than-average skills…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

February 09, 2021

An EU-China Deal for a Bygone Era (Project Syndicate, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

February 09, 2021

What to Look for in the January Consumer Price Index (CEPR, 3 min read) Bank of England urges co-operation on clearing (OMFIF,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rates

Podcast Transcript: Jon Turek on the New Fed Put, the Brainard US Curve Steepener and the Dollar

February 09, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Jon Turek. He gave his views on how to approach the Fed’s…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

February 09, 2021

Inflation and the Biden stimulus (VoxEU, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

February 09, 2021

Neglecting climate change endangers ECB independence (OMFIF, 1 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

February 09, 2021

Poor Countries’ Technology Dilemma (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

Is the RBA Setting a Precedent for the Fed?

February 09, 2021

Summary The recent RBA meeting may have set the template for how DM central banks will manage monetary policy at zero policy…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Emerging Markets Oil

Turbulent Domestic Politics Is Scaring off Investors and Keeping the Rouble Weak

February 08, 2021

Summary Russia’s economy is gaining traction, bolstered by vaccine rollout. But local assets have underperformed with the threat of sanctions following the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US

Where Will the Economy Find 10 million Lost Jobs?

February 08, 2021

Summary Another month, another downbeat labour market report. Yet recovery need not be distant. Most of the pain was focused in the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain FX

Podcast Transcript: Barry Eichengreen on Dollar Dominance, Crypto Hype, and Reforming International Finance

February 08, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with Professor Barry Eichengreen, one of the leading thinkers on international economics and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics

Why Spiking Shipping Costs Could Threaten The Global Recovery

February 05, 2021

Summary Shipping prices have surged since November, with China’s rapid recovery, earlier capacity reductions and much-reduced air freight all contributing. Alongside higher…

In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong

Why China Must Cut Interest Rates

February 04, 2021

Summary China’s unbalanced economic recovery is down to policymakers keeping interest rates above the natural rate. High rates have pushed capital into…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics US

Don’t Fight the Fed on Housing

February 04, 2021

Summary Fed Chair Powell recently suggested that the surging housing market of 2H 2020 is due to people adjusting to the Covid-19…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

February 03, 2021

Helicopter money in another pandemic recession: Venice, 1630 (VoxEU, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

February 03, 2021

“Pop-Up” Regulations for Big Tech (Project Syndicate, 6 min read)  Draghi’s grandest and gravest mission (OMFIF, 3 min read) 

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

February 03, 2021

Equity Volatility Term Premia (Liberty Street Economics, 12 min read)

In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Investment Strategy

Beware of Trading on Your Smartphone

February 03, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper measures how behaviours such as risk-taking, preference for lottery stocks and trend chasing vary depending on…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

February 02, 2021

Corporate Governance after GameStop (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

February 02, 2021

The Pre-Pandemic Debt Landscape—and Why It Matters (IMF, 2 min read) Central bank digital currencies risk becoming a gigantic flop (VoxEU, 5…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

February 02, 2021

The Law of One Price in Equity Volatility Markets (Liberty Street Economics, 9 min read) Cointelegraph announces the Top 100 Notable People…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics

Monthly UK House Prices Fall, But Which Areas Benefited Most During the Pandemic?

February 02, 2021

Summary Nationwide figures show a 0.3% MoM fall in house prices, the first in six months. Annual growth rates have dropped but…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy

Silver Squeeze Success or Debacle? Historical Lessons for the Curious

February 02, 2021

Summary Silver prices and physical premia have spiked of late, with inventories depleting Rumours are a ‘Reddit Army’ is partly responsible The…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Rates

A Smaller COVID Relief Deal and Yellen’s Funding Dilemmas

February 02, 2021

Summary A bipartisan COVID relief deal around $700bn appears most likely. This is due to moderate Democratic senators’ de facto veto and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Rates

The Best Way to Play the Fed

February 01, 2021

Summary  With more US fiscal easing, the ‘Brainard steepener’ of low five-year real yields and higher long-term nominal yields still works.  But…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

January 29, 2021

Job Seekers’ Beliefs and the Causes of Long-Term Unemployment (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

January 29, 2021

The G.O.P. Is in a Doom Loop of Bizarro (NY Times, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

January 29, 2021

Fed should speak out on financial stability (OMFIF, 2 min read)  

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

January 29, 2021

The wisdom of the Robinhood crowd (NBER, 32 page read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities

The Real Meaning of the Reddit Rebellion Against Stocks

January 28, 2021

Summary Reddit rebels were buying stocks and short squeezes are common after crises. This suggests stock markets may have more support than…

In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Equities

High Yield Credit Spreads Poised to Keep Tightening

January 28, 2021

Summary Credit spreads are approaching decade tights. But history shows there is still some upside – especially in high yield – if…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

January 27, 2021

COVID-19 and Global Income Inequality (NBER, 14 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

January 27, 2021

Text-based recession probabilities (ECB, 24 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

January 27, 2021

Unconventional Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets and Frontier Countries (IMF, 39 page read) Insolvency and debt overhang following the COVID-19 outbreak: Assessment…

In: Deep Dives | China & Hong Kong Equities

US-China Trade Relations: Which Equity Markets Are Most Affected?

January 27, 2021

Summary A new BIS working paper uses deep learning methods to assess the impact of US-China trade sentiment on up to 60…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

January 27, 2021

The Coronavirus Vaccine Fail and International Elites (CEPR, 7 min read) Where Biden Should Be More Like Trump (Project Syndicate, 5 min…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

January 27, 2021

A Race Between Vaccines and the Virus as Recoveries Diverge (IMF, 7 min read) Expect inflation and strong second-half recovery (OMFIF, 2…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

FOMC Preview: Tamping Down the Taper Talks

January 26, 2021

Summary 2021 sees a more dovish FOMC voter block, yet the tone at the year’s first meeting should deviate little from the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

January 25, 2021

Remarks by IMF Managing Director at the Climate Adaptation Summit (IMF, 1 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

January 25, 2021

Beyond Brexit: Outlook and Risks for the U.K. Economy (PIMCO, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

January 25, 2021

England’s Lockdown Lessons (Project Syndicate, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

January 25, 2021

Beware rising neutral rates (OMFIF, 3 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | ESG & Climate Change

An Invisible Hand for an Inconvenient Truth

January 25, 2021

Summary The global political tide is turning towards the increased use of carbon pricing. The price mechanism is the proven, trusted way…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

The Recovery Trade Still Has Legs

January 22, 2021

Summary The retail sales print portrayed a back-sliding economy. But most of the pain was in the food service sector (i.e., restaurants…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

January 21, 2021

How competitive are UK insurance markets? (Bank Underground, 5 min read) Why rising public debt won’t drive countries into difficulties (OMFIF, 2…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

January 21, 2021

Policy responses to the corporate solvency problem in the ongoing Covid-19 crisis (VoxEU, 8 min read) US Institutions After Trump (Project Syndicate,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Emerging Markets

Why EM Capital Inflows Are Here to Stay (in Asia at Least)

January 21, 2021

Summary Accelerating capital inflows through Q4 2020 were a key driver of EMFX. We expect inflows will remain strong in Asia driven…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics FX

Refounded US Multilateralism Unlikely to Restore Dollar Fortunes

January 21, 2021

Summary The dollar share of global foreign reserves declined under the Trump administration’s unilateralism. President Biden’s multilateralism alone may be unable to…

In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain Podcasts

Podcast Transcript: Eli Dourado on the Key Tech Breakthroughs For the 2020s

January 21, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our podcast episode with economist and regulatory hacker, Eli Dourado. He provides his views on some…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

January 21, 2021

The earned income tax credit: targeting the poor but crowding out wealth (BoE, 24 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

January 21, 2021

Pandemics and Automation: Will the Lost Jobs Come Back? (IMF, 22 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain

The Best Methods For Measuring Cryptocurrency Market Liquidity

January 20, 2021

Summary A new Journal of Banking and Finance paper explores how best to measure liquidity in cryptocurrency markets using only low-frequency data.…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

January 19, 2021

The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine (Medium, 22 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

January 19, 2021

Trump Crazy and Intellectual Crazy (CEPR, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

January 19, 2021

US, China must act to avoid monetary breakdown (OMFIF, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

January 19, 2021

The value of a vaccine to end COVID-19 is worth between 5% and 15% of wealth (VoxEU, 6 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation

ECB Preview: Pandemic Worsens, But Policy to Stay Unchanged

January 19, 2021

Europe’s economy is on the cusp of a double-dip recession. A worsening COVID situation and a tightening of restrictions means the bloc…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Growth & Labour Market UK

UK House Price Growth Losing Steam

January 18, 2021

Summary Average asking prices fell 0.9% on last month, according to the latest Rightmove data. YoY changes remain positive, but early-pandemic momentum…

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Investment Strategy Podcasts Trade

Podcast Transcript: 12 Investment Ideas For 2021 From Our Listeners

January 18, 2021

This is an edited transcript of our 12 Investment Ideas For 2021 From Our Listeners podcast episode. The trade ideas are the…

In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics US

An Unhappy Anniversary for the US-China Phase 1 Deal

January 15, 2021

Summary Chinese exports have outperformed this year, resulting in a rising global market share. And imports contracted, leaving China’s trade surplus at…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation Politics UK

The Sick Man of Europe

January 14, 2021

Summary UK relative economic performance has been very weak since the 2016 Brexit vote. Brexit’s arrival is unlikely to reverse this trend,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Markets and Investing Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Higher Food and Energy Prices Spell Danger Ahead

January 14, 2021

Summary Food and energy prices have risen sharply of late Upward pressure on global manufacturing costs is a likely result US breakevens…

In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Economics Fiscal Policy & Inequality

What Determines How Wealthy You Become?

January 13, 2021

Summary A new NBER paper explores the origins of wealth using a unique granular dataset. They find labour income drives wealth inequality…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

January 12, 2021

What’s behind the recent surge in the M1 money supply? (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 6 min read) ‘Leaning against the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

January 12, 2021

Why everyone should be using Signal instead of WhatsApp (Wired, 3 min read) Time to align finance with biodiversity objectives (OMFIF, 2…

In: Hive Exclusives | Investment Strategy Markets and Investing US

The Small Caps/Russell 2000 Hot Streak Is About to Fade

January 12, 2021

Summary The Russell 2000 index has been on a hot streak since the election, far outperforming the SPX and NASDAQ 100 indices.…

In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US

The US Labour Market Is Sprouting Green Shoots

January 12, 2021

Summary Underlying trends in the US labour market are promising. Outside of the leisure and food service sectors, the private sector is…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

January 12, 2021

A Narrowly Democratic Congress Could Boost Spending and Growth (PIMCO, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

January 12, 2021

State-owned Chinese bank rolls out ATMs for digital yuan (CoinTelegraph, 1 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

January 12, 2021

Impeaching Trump a Second Time is Complex and Politically Risky … (The Conversation, 4 min read) The Brexit Boon to Europe and…

In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong COVID-19 Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Inflation! What Inflation?

January 11, 2021

Summary China has increased fiscal deficits, credit, public spending, and has re-opened, yet inflation is anemic. This shows that commodity price inflation…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia COVID-19 Economics EM Equities Monetary Policy & Inflation UK

Three Reasons for Optimism on Global Growth

January 08, 2021

Summary Fresh COVID restrictions leave downside risks to the global recovery as mobility slows again. Asia’s dominance in global growth, an accommodative…

In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain Europe Oil Politics US

Geopolitics Returns!

January 07, 2021

Summary New alliances in the Middle East, the EU-China CAI deal, and Brexit show geopolitics is back. The US-China battle on digital…

In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Markets and Investing US

Credit Market Outlook: It’s All About Carry Now

January 07, 2021

Summary The corporate bond market outlook is sanguine. Credit spreads are near the past decade’s tights and likely to remain in a…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

January 06, 2021

Sovereign Debt Standstills (NBER, 16 page read) Remittances and COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries (Federal Reserve, 8 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

January 06, 2021

Pricing Currency Risks (NBER, 29 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

January 06, 2021

The globalisation of inflation in the European emerging countries (BIS, 18 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology US

Which Jobs Will AI Take Over?

January 06, 2021

Summary A new NBER working paper reveals a recent surge in job listings requiring AI-specific skills, based on Burning Glass job vacancy…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

January 05, 2021

Why Partisanship Will Increase in the Post-Trump Era (CEPR, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

January 05, 2021

Notes on technology in the 2020s (Eli Dourado, 8 min read) Why Markets Boomed in a Year of Human Misery (NYT, 4…

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Investment Strategy

Is There A Strong Consensus For Dollar Weakness In 2021?

January 05, 2021

Summary Consensus FX forecasts indicate no expectation of dollar weakness against the majors. Market implication: the bearish dollar trade may not be…

Academic Paper Summaries

In: Deep Dives |

Full List Of 2020 Deep Dives

December 29, 2020

Our Deep Dives have proven to be one of the most popular Macro Hive products this year. In total, we have written…

In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong COVID-19 EM Markets and Investing

Why Are Iron Ore Prices Surging?

December 22, 2020

Supply issues pushing iron ore prices to fresh highs. Iron appears overextended vs other industrial commodities. Chinese steel producers have blamed speculators.…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Key Events: Week of 21 December, 28 December and 4 January

December 18, 2020

Monetary Policy With most major DM central banks already wrapping up for the year the remaining policy meetings are in EM. Turkey…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Global Macro Monetary Policy & Inflation Podcasts

Book Recommendations Of The Year

December 17, 2020

We’ve had many great guests on our podcast show this year, and fascinating discussing on a whole range of topics. I always…

In: Hive Exclusives | EM Fiscal Policy & Inequality FX

Russia’s (Looser) Fiscal Rule RUB Positive

December 17, 2020

Summary Russia introduced a new fiscal rule in 2017 to preserve wealth across generations It implies FX interventions by the central bank…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

December 16, 2020

Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts? (INET, 26 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

December 16, 2020

The Impact of US Tariffs Against China on US Imports: Evidence for Trade Diversion? (ECB, 15 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

December 16, 2020

Do Enlarged Fiscal Deficits Cause Inflation: The Historical Record (NBER, 34 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

December 16, 2020

The Remarkable Growth in Financial Economics, 1974-2020 (NBER, 32 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

December 16, 2020

Recessions and Mortality: A Global Perspective (BIS, 32 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation

Rethinking The Traditional Measure Of Inflation

December 16, 2020

Summary Inflation expectations are an important component of Central Bank inflation measures. Using household and firm survey data, the Bank of Canada…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

FOMC Preview: Does The Lame Duck Session Also Apply To The Fed?

December 16, 2020

The last FOMC meeting of 2020 is upon us. Given the year we’ve just had we doubt the Fed wants to create…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

December 15, 2020

When Inequality is High, Pandemics Can Fuel Social Unrest (IMF Blog, 2 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

December 15, 2020

Rise Up: Vaccines Brought Broader Market Participation (Charles Schwab, 6 min read) Bull or Bear in 2021? (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Europe US

Which US Sectors Continue To Gain From Vaccine News?

December 15, 2020

COVID vaccine rollout has begun. The Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine is now approved for use in the US, UK and several other…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

December 14, 2020

2021 US outlook: The recovery takes hold (Invesco, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

December 14, 2020

5 key metrics signal Ethereum price is ready to make a new 2020 high (CoinTelegraph, 3 min read) It’s the most wonder-bull…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

December 14, 2020

Inflation Was Sooo 1970s! Will It Roar Back in the 2020s? (Dr Ed’s Blog,8 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market Monetary Policy & Inflation UK

2021 Grey Swan #11: Unexpected UK Outperformance

December 14, 2020

There was much to worry about in the UK during 2020. The response to the Covid-19 pandemic was slow yet chaotic. The…

In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain Markets and Investing

Podcast Transcript: Jim Leitner On Growth vs Value, Digital Options And Bitcoin

December 14, 2020

This is a transcript of our podcast episode with one of our most popular returning guests, star investor Jim Leitner. He gives…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Key Events: Week of 14 December

December 11, 2020

Monetary Policy Wednesday’s Fed decision will be the highlight of the week, with forward guidance and a possible duration shift in focus.…

In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Economics FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

China: Curb Your Enthusiasm

December 11, 2020

Summary Long Chinese fixed income FX unhedged is a multi-year macro trade. It’s underpinned by China’s favourable BoP position, high positive real…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia EM FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

INR – Asia’s Worst-Performing Currency in 2020

December 11, 2020

Summary Rupee looks set to end the year as Asia’s worst-performing currency This reflects RBI FX intervention with FX reserves up $xbn…

In: Hive Exclusives | Global Macro Other Politics

2021 Grey Swan #10: The Year We Finally Knew We Were Not Alone

December 11, 2020

As though 2020’s turmoil was too paltry to earn a prominent spot in the history books of modern civilization, 2021 took a…

In: Hive Exclusives | ESG & Climate Change Politics US

2021 Grey Swan #9: The Globalisation Of Carbon Taxes

December 10, 2020

If you’re going to fly a kite, why not fly one the size of a jumbo jet? The potential return of Janet…

In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain Monetary Policy & Inflation

2021 Grey Swan #8: China’s CBDC First-Mover Advantage Weakens Dollar Dominance

December 10, 2020

China’s retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) has received strong media attention. Yet its impact will be mainly domestic, challenging the duopoly…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia China & Hong Kong COVID-19 Markets and Investing

Iron Ore Insights

December 10, 2020

Summary Recovering steel production has pulled iron ore prices sharply higher. De-stockpiling appears to have begun, capping further price gains near term.…

In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong COVID-19 Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain

2021 Grey Swan #7: HKD Peg Breaks the Lower Band

December 10, 2020

The Covid-19 crisis for China may prove to be the economic equivalent of WW2 for the US. The US was the only…

In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics US

2021 Grey Swan #6: US and China Go to War Over Taiwan

December 09, 2020

With all the talk about the return of Great Power politics, few are actually looking for a direct confrontation between the US…

In: Hive Exclusives | DM Monetary Policy & Inflation US

2021 Grey Swan #5: Central Bankers’ Prayers Are Answered: Inflation Surges

December 09, 2020

‘Take care for what you pray; for the Gods may one day grant it to you,’ is an old proverb with similar…

In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Economics

Can Google Trends Accurately Forecast GDP Growth?

December 09, 2020

Summary The OECD has created a Weekly GDP Growth tracker using 263 Google Trends search topics. The tracker is highly correlated with…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

December 08, 2020

Central Banking’s Green Mission(Project Syndicate, 4 min read) Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media: How central banks reach the general public (VoxEU,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics US

2021 Grey Swan #4: Biden Unites the States of America

December 08, 2020

Sturgis, North Dakota, 25 December 2021. As President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden exit the Christmas service of the First…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics US

2021 Grey Swan #3: Biden Gets A Clean Sweep

December 08, 2020

It goes without saying: the trajectory of the Biden presidency depends critically on whether Democrats gain control of the Senate in Georgia’s…

In: Hive Exclusives | Europe Monetary Policy & Inflation

ECB Preview: Stepping Up Again

December 08, 2020

The ECB has made it explicit that additional stimulus will be announced at its Thursday Governing Council meeting. Market expectations are for…

In: Hive Exclusives | FX US

2021 Grey Swan #2: FX Volatility Back In Play

December 07, 2020

I was taught a simple framework in order to understand all financial markets options. No, not the ‘right but not the obligation…’…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

December 07, 2020

About That  (Next Fed Meeting… (Tim Duy’s Fed Watch,1 2 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

December 07, 2020

The VIX and the vax (LGIM, 3 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US

Dismal Labour Market Report Highlights Need for More Stimulus

December 07, 2020

Summary The November US labour report was dismal, portraying an economy verging on a double-dip recession. Every key metric worsened or came…

In: Hive Exclusives | Global Macro US

2021 Grey Swan #1: US Yields Go Negative!

December 07, 2020

It’s remarkable that for all the talk of negative-yielding bonds, no one is entertaining the possibility that US 10y yields could go…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics EM

After a Long Russian Winter, A Rate Cut Will Come

December 04, 2020

Summary RUB is benefitting from the EM rally and the OPEC+ agreement to delay increases in oil output. But Russia is in…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Key Events: Week of 7 December

December 04, 2020

Monetary Policy Thursday’s ECB meeting with take center stage with President Lagarde widely expected to announce additional asset purchases under PEPP. Brazil…

In: Hive Exclusives | DM Monetary Policy & Inflation

SEK: G10’s Best Performing Currency Has Cyclical And Structural Support

December 03, 2020

Summary SEK outperformance unrelated to Sweden’s no-lockdown policy. Riksbank’s 2020 hawkishness contrasts 2014-2019 dovishness. The positive basic balance, the rise in NIIP,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

2021: A Banner Year for Risk Assets?

December 03, 2020

Summary Risk assets have a banner year ahead of them for three reasons. First, even without additional easing, monetary and fiscal policies…

In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US

Labour Market Report Likely to Disappoint

December 03, 2020

Summary Early indications: November labour market report could either come in weaker than consensus forecasts or, if on the mark, already be…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations with Yaneer Bar-Yam

December 03, 2020

As COVID cases continue to rise across the US and Europe, we teamed up with complexity theory expert Dr Yaneer Bar-Yam to…

In: Deep Dives | Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain Economics

An Economic Framework To Value Bitcoin

December 02, 2020

Summary The challenge of valuing bitcoin lies mainly in identifying how token-holders will use the currency moving forward. With it being a…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

December 01, 2020

How Much Debt Is Too Much? (Project Syndicate, 3 min read) Modern monetary theory would produce chaos (OMFIF, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

December 01, 2020

An Effective Response to Europe’s Fiscal Paralysis (Project Syndicate, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

December 01, 2020

Cannabis Industry After Biden Elected - Once In A Lifetime Investing Opportunity (Seeking Alpha, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

December 01, 2020

How Will Biden Deal With Republican Sabotage? (New York Times, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | EM Markets and Investing

Can EM Continue The November Rally?

December 01, 2020

Summary EM sentiment remains bullish following strong November performance and vaccine rollout optimism. That EMs have more goods-driven economies (versus service-oriented DM…

In: Hive Exclusives | US

US Election Competition Results: Four People Have Won $5000s’ Worth of Our Professional Offering!

December 01, 2020

Last month, we held our first-ever Macro Hive competition and we made sure that the prize really lived up to it -…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

November 27, 2020

When bigger isn’t better: UK firms’ equity price performance during the Covid-19 pandemic (Bank Underground, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 27, 2020

What's in store for r*? (Money and Banking, 8 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 27, 2020

COVID vaccines are party-poopers for gold (Flow Bank, 3 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Key Events: Week of 30 November

November 27, 2020

Monetary Policy Australia, Poland and India will all hold policy meetings over the coming week. None are expected to ease policy, although…

In: Hive Exclusives | EM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Turkey: What to Watch for a Sustained Lira Turnaround

November 27, 2020

Summary Turkey’s 475bps rate hike and new economic management are much-needed policy shifts. They are not, however, enough to guarantee lira stability.…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

November 26, 2020

Big Tech Companies in Chinese Finance (PIIE, 60 min watch)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 26, 2020

Jeremy Siegel: 2021 will be a Bull Market for Stocks (Advisor Perspectives, 10 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

November 26, 2020

How a Collective Infrastructure Push Will Boost Global Growth (IMF, 2 min read) A Tale of Two Economies (Project Syndicate,4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Guess What’s Coming to Dinner? Inflation!

November 26, 2020

Summary: Sharp increases in grains prices this year may have an unexpectedly broad impact on inflation generally Energy price declines appear to…

In: Deep Dives | COVID-19 FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

FX Volatility At Risk From Pandemic

November 25, 2020

Summary: The US, EU, Japan and China account for 50% of world GDP. Their exchange rates have been experiencing a long-term secular…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics US

Ongoing COVID-19 Surge To Have Limited Economic Impact

November 25, 2020

Summary The ongoing COVID surge is likely to have limited economic impact: the economy is already ‘pandemic-proofed’; the virus is less deadly;…

In: Hive Exclusives | US

8 Charts To Give Thanks For In 2020

November 25, 2020

The upcoming US Thanksgiving holiday is usually a time for families to gather and give thanks. However, this year the COVID pandemic…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 25, 2020

‘Low for Long’ and Risk-Taking (IMF, 22 page read) Stablecoins: Potential, Risks and Regulation (BIS, 23 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

November 25, 2020

Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning (FEDS, 21 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

November 25, 2020

How News Affects Sectoral Stock Prices Through Earnings Expectations and Risk Premia (ECB, 20 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

November 24, 2020

The Youths Are Coming For The Housing Market (A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 24, 2020

Monetizing Privacy with Central Bank Digital Currencies (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 24, 2020

“High” Yield yields hit a low (M&G Investments, 6 min read) Here Are The Blockchain Networks Most Popular With Capital Markets Players…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 EM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations With Dirk Willer

November 24, 2020

Following promising vaccine results, bullish sentiment over EM is building. To discuss this, we welcomed Dirk Willer, Managing Director and Global Head…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Monetary Policy & Inflation

How COVID-19 Kills Inflation

November 24, 2020

Yet again, everyone sees nothing but inflation following a sharp downturn. Just like after the 2008 financial crisis, policymaker, analyst and investor…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 23, 2020

Fintech and big tech credit markets around the world (Vox EU, 8 min read) Jumping into the pool: How to earn a…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Europe US

US vs Europe: A COVID Comparison In Charts

November 23, 2020

Summary US COVID cases are rising quickly and could continue to rise for at least another two weeks. The latest research estimates…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 20, 2020

The Siren Song of Austerity (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 20, 2020

Flipping tech: four risks to the sector (LGIM, 3 min read) Engines of global growth keep recovery on track (Variant Perception, 3…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Striking a Minor Discord? The Treasury Wants Its Money Back…

November 20, 2020

Summary As we expected, Secretary Mnuchin did not renew the key 13(3) facilities aimed at credit and muni market support and has…

In: Hive Exclusives | DM EM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Key Events: Week of 23 November

November 20, 2020

Monetary Policy Next Thursday, we have policy rate announcements from the Riksbank and BoK. On speeches, Deputy Governor’s of the Bank of…

In: Hive Exclusives | EM Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Why the Mexican Peso Could Perform

November 20, 2020

Summary Mexico’s trade balance has dramatically improved since 2017. The country has favoured fiscal and monetary stability over economic growth. Market Implications…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality US

The Fiscal Cliff Is Already Behind Us

November 19, 2020

Summary Funding for the most important Congress funded COVID programs has already largely expired. Household balance sheets remain robust. This suggests limited…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality US

Watch For A Rise In Mortgage Foreclosures

November 19, 2020

Summary Bankruptcy activity has been remarkably low in 2020 thanks to loan forbearance programs in the CARES legislation. Absent further action by…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

November 18, 2020

A Proposal for an Auction-Based Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (VoxEU, 4 min read) The Impact of Natural Disasters on the Corporate Loan…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 18, 2020

Anonymous Trading in Equities (Journal of Finance, 40 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 18, 2020

Fintech in Europe: Promises and Threats (IMF, 28 pages) Sudden Stops and Optimal Foreign Exchange Intervention (NBER, 42 pages)      …

In: Deep Dives | COVID-19 Economics

Will Remote Working Remain After COVID?

November 18, 2020

Summary Up to half of US workers have been working from home during the pandemic. Employees and managers alike view this transition…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 17, 2020

Vaccine Apartheid (Project Syndicate, 8 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

November 17, 2020

Emerging markets: inflation ahoy? (LGIM, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 17, 2020

3 Types Of Inflation, And How They Impact Your Portfolio (Seeking Alpha, 15 min read)      

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 17, 2020

4 reasons why BTC price will hit $22,000 next (Cointelegraph,3 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Geopolitics

The True Economic Consequences Of The COVID Peace

November 17, 2020

The war against the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be in its final stretch with the news of two Western vaccines, but investors…

In: Hive Exclusives | Investment Strategy

Introducing CTA Momentum Models For Canadian Futures

November 17, 2020

Momentum strategies are a core part of any systematic investment approach. The challenge is to keep finding ways to improve returns, especially…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 16, 2020

7 Misconceptions About Bitcoin (Lyn Alden, 15 min read) Income & Wealth In America: Who Owns Equities?(Dr Ed’s Blog, 5 min read)…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 16, 2020

The Democrats’ problem in the Senate, explained (The Bonddad Blog, 3 min read) Why Biden Can Overcome Political Gridlock (Project Syndicate, 5…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations With Prof. Justin Stebbing

November 16, 2020

Introduction Following last week’s vaccine news from Pfizer, we welcomed Professor Justin Stebbing back onto our podcast show. We first interviewed Justin…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 13, 2020

Global high yield: more of the same (LGIM, 2 min read) How will the U.S. election impact the U.S. dollar? (JP Morgan…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 13, 2020

Together Again: Physical Distancing on the Decline (IMF, 2 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | DM EM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Key Events: Week of 16 November

November 13, 2020

Monetary Policy Policy rates are due to be announced by the South African, Turkish, and Indonesian Central Banks this week. On speeches,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Politics US

Don’t Believe The Trump Coup Conspiracy Theories

November 13, 2020

A vocal minority still believe that President Trump could win the election. According to them, his options are overturning the results, pressuring…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 12, 2020

America’s Alliances After Trump (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

November 12, 2020

Economic expected losses and downside risks due to the Spanish flu (VoxEU, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 12, 2020

The Post-Pandemic Trade (A Wealth of Commonsense, 3 min read) Three reasons why I’m optimistic on Japanese equities (Schroders, 4 min read)…

In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Markets and Investing US

High Yield Still A Hold Despite Big Rally

November 12, 2020

Summary High yield credit spreads gapped 80 bp tighter to 422 bp following the election, reaching a target we set in late…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The Dollar Has Peaked: Post-Election Update

November 12, 2020

This year’s dollar decline has resumed. Having paused during election season, the downtrend restarted as the country entered the final stage of…

In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Economics

China’s Economy In The 2020s

November 12, 2020

Summary China’s latest five-year plan is under development; these plans are relevant to investors. The growth target is likely to be 5-6%…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

November 11, 2020

How might the autumn lockdown affect different sectors of the economy? (Economics Observatory, 4 min read) Crouching Beliefs, Hidden Biases: The Rise…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 11, 2020

An Early Stablecoin? The Bank of Amsterdam and the Governance of Money (BIS, 36 page read)      

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

November 11, 2020

An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults (IMF, 14 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 11, 2020

Intangible Value (NBER, 17 page read)

In: Deep Dives | COVID-19 Markets and Investing

Which US Sectors Are Most Excited About A Vaccine?

November 11, 2020

Summary US GDP data reveals hospitality and mining suffered most during COVID-19 first wave. Around 60% of US workers are employed in…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

A Year-End Credit Tightening Event Ahead?

November 10, 2020

Summary Key GOP policymakers have stated that Fed lending facilities should not be extended at end-year. The incoming Treasury secretary could reverse…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

November 10, 2020

The Calm Before the Exchange-Rate Storm? (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 10, 2020

Data Disruption: The Impact of COVID-19 on Inflation Measurement (IMF, 2 min read)    

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 10, 2020

Five forces that could propel markets during a Biden presidency (Invesco, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 10, 2020

DeFi won’t last long without unlocking Bitcoin’s $250B treasure chest (Cointelegraph, 3 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US

Three New Tailwinds For Small Caps/Russell 2000

November 10, 2020

Anyone watching equity markets yesterday surely noticed the Russell 2000 Index (+3.6%) robustly outperform the S&P 500 (+2.3%) and NASDAQ (-1.9%). Joe…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 09, 2020

This Recession, Banks Are The Good Guy (M&G Investments, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 09, 2020

The Democrats’ Four-Year Reprieve (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 09, 2020

Beyond the Election: What Doesn’t Change Will Be a Lot More Than What Does (Bridgewater Associates, 6 min read)    

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Which Countries Are Set To Benefit Most From A Vaccine?

November 09, 2020

Summary Pfizer has just reported promising results for their COVID vaccine. A vaccine is likely to help economies whose sectors have been…

In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US

It’s Still A Two-Tier US Labour Market

November 09, 2020

Summary The latest labour market report shows encouraging reduction in temporary unemployment but little improvement in structural unemployment. Exit polling suggests Republicans…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

November 06, 2020

Everybody Lies: Pollster Edition(A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 06, 2020

Steeper And Cheaper (Variant Perception, 3 min read) Tonight, We Leave The Party Like It’s 1999 (GMO, 10 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 06, 2020

Putin’s Flatlining Economy (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Key Events: Week of 9 November

November 06, 2020

Monetary Policy Last week’s flurry of monetary policy meetings leaves a fairly quiet week ahead. Several Fed, ECB and BoE speakers are…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Weekly Claims Point To Further Q4 Growth Risks

November 06, 2020

Summary Weekly claims are falling because benefits are expiring, not because workers are finding jobs. Together with slower employment growth, this suggests…

In: Hive Exclusives | DM Monetary Policy & Inflation

AUD Strength To Continue Despite RBA Easing

November 05, 2020

Summary AUD is the currency most correlated to the S&P 500 since the pandemic began and has ignored the deterioration in Australia-China…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

An Update On The Global Pandemic

November 05, 2020

Summary 1% of Belgium’s population contracted the virus last week. This is the highest weekly increase in population-adjusted cases on record. France,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia Monetary Policy & Inflation

Why Has the Indian Rupee Been So Weak?

November 05, 2020

Summary INR performance has lagged other Asian currencies over recent months after the strong rally in August. A more pro-growth RBI and…

In: Hive Exclusives | US

Lessons From The US Election

November 05, 2020

Summary Yet again, forecasters, pollsters and alarmists were wrong about the US election. It was much closer and more peaceful than expected.…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 04, 2020

Social Networks, Confirmation Bias and Shock Elections (INET, 24 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

November 04, 2020

Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation?  (Minneapolis Fed, 39 page read)  

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 04, 2020

Has the Stock Market Become Less Representative of the Economy (NBER, 35 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

November 04, 2020

A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth (NBER, 20 page read) What Comes Next? (BIS, 28 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Markets and Investing

Do Analysts Top Pick Recommendations Make Money?

November 04, 2020

Summary Investors and media outlets pay significant attention to analysts’ ‘top pick’ stock recommendations. This attention is justified: the picks offer large…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 03, 2020

Political polarisation and expected economic outcomes (VOX EU, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 03, 2020

Gridlock Is More Bullish Than Blue or Red Waves (DR. Ed’s Blog, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

November 03, 2020

It Is Time To Scrap the IMF's Reserve Adequacy Metric (CFR, 6 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation UK

UK: Locking Down The Economic Ruins

November 03, 2020

Summary The UK government followed other European states into a sweeping nationwide lockdown. Such an aggressive response is more severe than I…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

November 02, 2020

Who Will Win the US Presidential Election? (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

November 02, 2020

Presidential Terms & Market Cycles (A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read) Seven scary charts – happy Halloween! (M&G Investments,4 min…

In: Hive Exclusives | US

What Are Final Expectations For The US 2020 Presidential Election?

November 02, 2020

 Summary Models and prediction markets are predicting a Democrat sweep (Biden to win, Democrats to gain Senate, and retain House) Biden is…

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US

Macro Hive Guide To The US Election

November 02, 2020

With the election now less than 24 hours away we provide a Macro Hive guide to everything you need to know. We…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

The US Third Wave: Which States Fare Worse Pre-Election?

October 30, 2020

Just days away from the US election, the public health debate continues to dominate this year’s campaign. Here is an update on…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics EM Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Key Events: Week Of 2 November

October 30, 2020

Monetary Policy A very busy week for monetary policy with Fed and BoE policy meetings (both Thursday) plus the RBA (Tuesday). While…

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The US Presidential Election: The Possible Outcomes and Their Market Implications

October 29, 2020

Summary With the US economic recovery losing momentum amid political discord, it is not only the size but the timing of the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

M2 Spike Unlikely To Fuel CPI Inflation

October 29, 2020

Summary M2 has spiked but mainly with high-income households and nonfinancial corporations, which have a high propensity to save. This suggests limited…

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US

When Will We Know Who Won the US Election?

October 29, 2020

Summary Results should become clear late on election night (Tuesday) or the next morning. Mail-in voting shouldn’t cause significant delays in counting…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

October 28, 2020

The Changing Nature of Turkey’s Balance Sheet Risks (CFR, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 28, 2020

The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States (NBER, 41 page read)  

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

October 28, 2020

Trump's phase one trade deal with China and the US election (Peterson Institute For International Economics, 12 min read) How Likely Is…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

October 28, 2020

Assessing The Fiscal Implications Of Banking Crises (BIS, 17 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain

Digital Money: Why, When, And What It Could Mean

October 28, 2020

Introduction The transition to digital money is inevitable and imminent. According to the BIS, at least a fifth of the world’s population…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 27, 2020

Does The Price of Oil Even Matter Anymore? (A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

October 27, 2020

China Leads Again (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

October 27, 2020

The Changing Nature of Turkey’s Balance Sheet Risks (CFR, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Monetary Policy & Inflation

ECB Preview: No New Policy Announcements Despite COVID Surge

October 27, 2020

Summary Rising COVID cases and new restrictions threaten the Euro area recovery ECB likely to acknowledge the rising downside risks but stop…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

October 26, 2020

The Psychology of Trump’s Debate Rudeness (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 26, 2020

The Great Debate On Value Investing (Invesco, 7 min read) Don’t Fear The Rise In Yields (Variant Perception, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

October 26, 2020

How Has China’s Economy Performed under the COVID-19 Shock? (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read)

Digital Currencies

In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology China & Hong Kong

Digital Currencies, Take Three

October 26, 2020

The 2020 focus has been bitcoin’s rebound and efforts to develop CBDCs In the middle, the Facebook-led effort to promote stablecoins has…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

October 23, 2020

Machine Learning the News for Better Macroeconomic Forecasting (Bank Underground, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

October 23, 2020

Engines Not Yet in Sync: A Multispeed Recovery in Asia (IMF Blog, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 23, 2020

  Bank of England: Six Answers On Negative Interest Rates  (ING Bank, 7 min read)  Bank Capital, Loan Liquidity, and Credit Standards…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

October 23, 2020

China’s Surplus is Rising Rapidly. So is the U.S. Deficit. The IMF Cannot Turn a Blind Eye (Brad Setser, 3 min read) 

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US

US Election – 11 Days To Go

October 23, 2020

The final Trump-Biden debate is now over. It was a more civilized affair than the first, helped by a format change that…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Key Events: Week Of 26 October

October 23, 2020

Monetary Policy Thursday’s ECB meeting is expected to bring a strong commitment to do more given the renewed wave of COVID cases…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 22, 2020

Investors Need to Become More Comfortable With Volatility in Their Portfolios (A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read) How will the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

October 22, 2020

China: seven things investors should know (LGIM Blog, 3 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Fiscal Policy & Inequality

The Fiscal Response To COVID: A Global Ranking

October 22, 2020

The global fiscal response to COVID is $11.7trn, or almost 12% of GDP, according to the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor. Around half…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

US TIPS vs Gold, Part 3: From Inflation to Real Rates

October 22, 2020

Summary TIPS-implied real rates are being driven lower by supply/demand imbalances, the Fed’s forward guidance on interest rates and balance-sheet policies, and…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 21, 2020

Does Mining Fuel Bubbles? An Experimental Study On Cryptocurrency Markets (University of Heidelberg, 19 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

October 21, 2020

Banking across borders: Are Chinese banks different? (BIS, 20 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 21, 2020

Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications (IMF, 34 page read) Quantitative Easing Policies And Exchange Rates (VoxEU, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

October 21, 2020

Post COVID-19 Exit Strategies and Emerging Markets Economic Challenges (NBER, 20 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Credit Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain

Limitless Potential – Is DeFi Coming Of Age?

October 21, 2020

Article Overview Decentralised finance (DeFi) is a catch-all term for protocols and applications (dapps) in the cryptocurrency space. Where Initial Coin Offerings…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 20, 2020

The Next Phase For Bitcoin (Seeking Alpha, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

October 20, 2020

Why category leading brick and mortar retailers are likely the biggest long term COVID beneficiaries (Gavin Baker,13 min read) Machine learning the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

October 20, 2020

Behind the Stability in China’s Currency: Beijing’s Hidden Hand (Barron’s, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain Economics

China’s Winning Formula To Boost Consumption

October 20, 2020

Summary China’s 6-month experiment with CBDC has scaled up, with the recent Shenzen test the biggest so far The bank-based nature of…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Is COVID-19 Beginning To Transmit To The Vulnerable?

October 19, 2020

Overview Last week, France, Italy, Germany and the UK all recorded their largest daily increase in new cases since mass testing began…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

October 19, 2020

Green bond issuance set to double by 2023 after hitting $1trn (Expert Investor, 2 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

October 19, 2020

Bidenomics versus Trumponomics (OMFIF, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 19, 2020

Who’s Afraid of Rules-Based Monetary Policy? (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 19, 2020

Do Bonds Still Provide Diversification? (Charles Schwab, 8 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Macro Hive Webinar: How Markets Trade Around US Elections, Chinese Yuan To Strengthen & Live Q&A

October 16, 2020

Andrew Simon and I really enjoyed talking to everyone on Wednesday on our first-ever live public webinar, so thank you to those who…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 16, 2020

The Fed Is Almost Out Of U.S. Treasuries To Buy (Seeking Alpha, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

October 16, 2020

How Have Households Used Their Stimulus Payments and How Would They Spend the Next? (Liberty Street Economics, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

October 16, 2020

Fiscal Policy for an Unprecedented Crisis (IMF Blog, 3 min read) Pandemics and inequality: A historical overview (Vox EU, 7 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Key Events: Week Of 19 October

October 16, 2020

Monetary Policy Monetary policy meetings are concentrated in EM during the coming week. China and Hungary are on Tuesday, followed by Turkey,…

In: Hive Exclusives | EM Markets and Investing Monetary Policy & Inflation

Bullish KRW As Recovery Gathers Pace

October 16, 2020

Summary KRW is Asia’s best-performing currency since the start of September The recovery is slowing picking up and exports are rebounding Still-low…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 15, 2020

Negative rates explained: should UK investors prepare? (Schroders,6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

October 15, 2020

A long, uneven and uncertain ascent (IMF blog, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 15, 2020

Has gold gotten too expensive? (The Felder Report, 1 min read) What does the future of energy look like? (JP Morgan Asset…

In: Hive Exclusives | EM Monetary Policy & Inflation

Shekel: A High-Tech EM Safe Haven

October 15, 2020

Summary High-tech boom a key factor of Israel’s BoP improvement. Israeli investors partially hedge the C/A recycling, supporting the shekel. FX intervention…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Credit

Loan Credit Quality Holding Up Well, But Banks Face Other Challenges

October 15, 2020

Summary Bank 3Q earnings reports show realized credit losses have yet to rise above pre-Covid levels. Bankruptcy data shows similar pattern. Credit…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

A Jobless Recovery?

October 15, 2020

Summary Even with more fiscal support, the mid-year economic bounce is likely to turn into a sluggish, jobless recovery. As a result,…

In: Deep Dives | Economics Sustainability & Social Issues

Which Country Has the Best-Quality Elites?

October 14, 2020

Executive Summary Elite members of economies currently face intense scrutiny, yet not all are created equal. Academics at the University of St.…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

October 13, 2020

Building ESG momentum in US equities (Amundi, 7 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 13, 2020

Don’t mix your politics with your portfolio (A Wealth of Common Sense, 3 min read) Volatility, the vote and taking the long…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

October 13, 2020

Scotland after Sterling (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US

Will Democrats Protest The Election Results?

October 13, 2020

While many have focused on whether President Trump will protest the November election results, another possibility is that Democrats could. After all,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Markets and Investing US

Reports Of The Bond Market’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

October 13, 2020

Summary The recent 63 business days of price action has a strong influence on the direction of yields, where providing yields do…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

October 12, 2020

Post-COVID Capitalism (Project Syndicate, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 12, 2020

Gold: Less a Hedge, More a Rates Play (BlackRock,3 min read) Building Bond Portfolios on a Strong Housing Market (Janus Henderson,6 min…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

October 12, 2020

Global connectedness and market power make firms more resilient to domestic COVID-19 shocks (Vox EU, 6 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

The UK’s ‘Bleak Mathematics’

October 12, 2020

With Prime Minister Boris Johnson unveiling a new three-level alert system, we look at the ongoing COVID-19 developments in the UK. Cases…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

October 09, 2020

3 Reasons to Expect Election Result Delays (Schwab, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 09, 2020

COVID-19 and the new age of copper: Opportunities for Latin America (Vox EU, 5 min read) The 7 Things That Matter For Markets…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Which Country Has The Cheapest iPhone?

October 09, 2020

Apple’s October ‘special event’ is just one week away, spelling the arrival of a new iPhone – probably the 12. In the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Key Events: Week Of 12 October

October 09, 2020

Monetary Policy The IIF’s five-day, virtual, annual meeting will feature panels with a number of central bank officials including Kuroda, de Guindos…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 08, 2020

Which stock markets look cheap as we enter the final quarter of 2020? (Schroders,6 min read) Secular Outlook Takeaways: Escalating Disruption (Pimco,12…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

October 08, 2020

The Core of the ECB’s New Strategy (Project Syndicate,4 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics

Will Scotland Leave The UK?

October 08, 2020

Summary Scottish parliament elections are scheduled for May 2021 Several factors suggest ‘Indyref2’ could happen within two years But ‘doctrine of unripe…

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The Dollar Has Peaked: Update And Broad Market Implications

October 08, 2020

Summary The dollar could be losing its reserve currency status This could lead to higher US interests and less ability for the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

October 07, 2020

Unemployed With Jobs and Without Jobs (NBER, 18 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

October 07, 2020

One Belt, One Road, One Way? (Maastricht University, 23 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 07, 2020

Fifty Shades of QE: Central Bankers Versus Academic (VoxEU, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

October 07, 2020

Regional Heterogeneity and US Presidential Elections (INET, 35 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

October 07, 2020

Green Asset Pricing (ECB, 35 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Why ETFs Don’t Always Follow Their Underlying Market

October 07, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are one of the most popular investment vehicles. However, there have been persistent concerns…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

October 06, 2020

ESG investing looks like just another stock bubble (Advisor Perspectives, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

October 06, 2020

Biden's business tax plan: More complexity, questionable effect (PIIE, 8 min read) Elephant who lost its trunk: Continued growth in Asia, but…

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US

Does Trump Have Enough Time To Overturn Biden’s Lead?

October 06, 2020

With less than a month before the US election, Biden has made gains on Trump in prediction markets. While Trump returning to…

In: Hive Exclusives | Global Macro Monetary Policy & Inflation

DM Monetary Policy Options Heading Into 2021

October 06, 2020

Summary DM monetary policy was more stable in Q3 than 2020H1; balance sheet expansion slowed. If further support is needed heading into…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 05, 2020

Election 2020: What will happen if the capital gains tax is increased?(Invesco Blog, 4 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

October 05, 2020

Big budget spending isn’t new: it’s a return to what worked before (The Conversation,5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 05, 2020

The Eurosystem: An accident waiting to happen (Vox EU, 10 min read) The Danger of Following the Fed (Project Syndicate, 4 min…

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities Growth & Labour Market US

US Labour Market Report Points To Growing Downside Risks

October 05, 2020

Summary The latest US labour market report shows some modest gains but most of the underlying detail was uniformly negative. Payroll employment…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Key Events: Week Of 5 October

October 02, 2020

Monetary Policy Fed minutes plus speeches from Chair Powell and Williams will be in focus this week. Several ECB officials, including President…

Fed Autopilot

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Is The Ship Of Fools On Autopilot?

October 02, 2020

At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in 2018 the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, used ‘navigating by the stars’ as…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Mobility And COVID-19 Cases Are Correlating With Equities

October 01, 2020

Summary: Deaths reach 1 million, placing COVID-19 among the top 20 deadliest pandemics Average daily deaths are now higher than most leading…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

October 01, 2020

Average inflation targeting and household expectations (Vox EU, 6 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

October 01, 2020

Whither Oil? (Project Syndicate, 5 min read) 2020 Global Market Outlook – Q4 Update: The Old New Cycle (Russell Investments, 12 min…

In: Hive Exclusives | Asia FX

Mounting Evidence Reveals Scale of Asian FX Intervention

October 01, 2020

Summary Singapore’s $44bn in FX intervention in H1 is the highest on UST watchlist RBI FX reserves are up $72bn YTD given…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Should Investors Fear Fed Helicopter Money?

October 01, 2020

Summary Two economists have proposed a scheme where the Fed would inject money directly to households, a form of helicopter money This…

Market Liquidity

In: Deep Dives | COVID-19 Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

How Market Liquidity Disappeared During The COVID-19 Crisis

September 30, 2020

The Essence of the Piece The Fed conducted a study on Treasury market liquidity during the height of the COVID-19 crisis. They…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

September 30, 2020

Covered Interest Parity in long-dated securities (Norges Bank, 33 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 30, 2020

In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis (NBER, 79 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

September 30, 2020

War, Socialism and the Rise of Fascism: An Empirical Exploration (NBER, 30 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

September 30, 2020

The Economics of Currency Risk (NBER, 24 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

September 30, 2020

US Housing Market during COVID-19: Aggregate and Distributional Evidence (IMF, 39 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 29, 2020

The physics of economic and financial distress (BlackRock, 6 min read) Emerging Market Bonds: Part of a Resilient Portfolio? (PIMCO, 3 min…

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Geopolitics US

How Do Markets Trade Around US Elections?

September 29, 2020

Going into this year’s US presidential election, we have a Republican incumbent whose party currently holds majority control in the Senate but…

In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Inflation Is Back, At Least In EM

September 29, 2020

Parts of emerging markets are starting to see rising inflation. This is the result of earlier currency depreciation, supply-side disruptions and rising…

In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Macro Hive Smart Investor Survey: Results

September 28, 2020

We are back with our smart investor survey. The respondents are mainly sophisticated investors and analysts from financial institutions covering both buy…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

September 28, 2020

How should I position my portfolio if inflation comes back? (JP Morgan Asset Management, 2 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 28, 2020

The Vise Tightens on the Dollar (Project Syndicate, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

September 28, 2020

Most Americans Want To Wait Until After The Election To Fill The Supreme Court Vacancy (FiveThirtyEight, 6 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

US TIPS vs Gold, Part 2: Inflation Hedges And Beyond

September 28, 2020

Both gold and TIPS can provide a suitable hedge for rising inflation, but which is better? In part 1 of this two-part…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Key Events: Week Of 28 September

September 25, 2020

Monetary Policy The plethora of Fedspeak continues with Williams and Clarida among the scheduled speakers over the coming week. ECB officials will…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

September 24, 2020

Election 2020: What happens if we don’t know the results for a while?(Invesco, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

September 24, 2020

Fiscal, Not Monetary, to Determine Europe’s Inflation Path Ahead (Pimco,3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 24, 2020

U.S. Stock Performance During Past Presidential Elections (Janus Henderson, 4 min read) Should I be worried about the stock market correction? (JP…

In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Equities US

High Yield Is Worth A Look

September 24, 2020

With high yield credit spreads near 540bp, is high yield a buy? Moody’s default rate outlook suggests it is, and that it…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Growth & Labour Market US

Can The Recovery Continue Without New Relief?

September 24, 2020

Market concerns over a new COVID-19 relief bill could be overdone. This is because the household savings rate is extraordinarily high, and…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

September 23, 2020

“Buy British”: The Viability of a Nationalist Commercial Policy (VoxEU, 3 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

September 23, 2020

Chinese Open Source Data Collection, Big Data, And Private Enterprise Work For State Intelligence and Security: The Case of Shenzhen Zhenhua (NBER,…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 23, 2020

Man vs. Machine Learning: The Term Structure of Earnings Expectations and Conditional Biases (NBER, 20 page read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

September 23, 2020

Forecasting the COVID-19 Recession and Recovery: Lessons from the Financial Crisis (ECB, 36 page read)

In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure FX Investment Strategy

Excess Returns In FX Volatility Markets

September 23, 2020

The academic paper we review this week shows that a carry trade in volatility, a long-short strategy that buys implied volatility at…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

September 23, 2020

Greater inflation risks ahead (BlackRock, 5 pages read)

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Are Fewer COVID-19 Deaths Causing Complacency?

September 22, 2020

 As the COVID-19 second wave takes hold, differences in government responses appear unable to explain differences in infection rates across European countries.…

In: Hive Exclusives | FX US

How Far Could US Stocks Fall?

September 22, 2020

Global stocks have tumbled in recent days given a combination of fears over a second COVID wave in Europe, lingering disappointment over…

Courtroom

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US

Will The Supreme Court Race Disrupt Biden’s Lead?

September 21, 2020

The recent death of liberal-leaning Supreme Court Justice Ruth Ginsburg has shifted political attention to who will pick the next Supreme Court…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics FX

CHF: No Breather For The SNB

September 21, 2020

This Thursday’s Swiss National Bank (SNB) quarterly monetary policy meeting comes against a backdrop of Swiss franc (CHF) outperformance, with the currency…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 21, 2020

How Traders Used Google Searches To See The Economic Recovery In Real Time (Bloomberg Odd lots, 41 min listen) Bitcoin as an…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

September 21, 2020

Gold Will Outperform Stocks Until Inflation Surges  (Seeking Alpha, 4 min read) Why inflation in the US has been so stable since…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

September 21, 2020

What Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Death Means for America (The Atlantic, 5 min read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Global Macro Monetary Policy & Inflation

Key Events

September 21, 2020

Monetary Policy After a flurry of major DM central bank meetings last week, this week is quiet in terms policy meetings. There…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

September 18, 2020

What We Learned-And What We Didn't- From the September 2020 Powell Press Conference (Notes on crises, 6 min read) Why inflation in…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 18, 2020

Michael Green on Detecting The Greatest Value In Markets Today (Superinvestors,60 min listen)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

September 18, 2020

How Traders Used Google Searches To See The Economic Recovery In Real Time (Bloomberg Odd lots, 41 min listen) Hedge Fund Family…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 17, 2020

Dollar demise or just a blip? (GAM Investment, 6 mins) Are equities expensive? (JP Morgan Asset Management, 2 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

September 17, 2020

Asian Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market is Back. Bigly (Brad Setser, 5 min read)

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

September 17, 2020

The Big Cycles of China and Its Currency (Ray Dalio, 15 page read)

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

US TIPS vs Gold, Part 1: Understanding Inflation Is The First Step In Hedging It

September 17, 2020

The possibility of rising inflation on the horizon means investors should consider their hedging options. In this piece, we weigh up US…

Biden and Trump

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Biden And Trump Macroeconomic Convergence Points At Move To High Inflation Regime

September 17, 2020

The macroeconomic plans of the Biden and Trump campaigns are surprisingly similar and support a move to a high inflation regime. The…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

September 16, 2020

Information and Inequality in the Time of a Pandemic (IMF, 31 page read) The poor will bear most of an epidemic’s health costs…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

September 16, 2020

Will the AI Revolution Cause a Great Divergence? (IMF, 31 page read) The AI revolution is set to favour advanced countries and pull…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

September 16, 2020

Exchange Rates and Domestic Credit – Can Macroprudential Policy Reduce the Link? (IMF, 27 page read) Tighter macroprudential policy and targeted capital controls…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation UK

BoE Prepares For A QE Extension In November 2020

September 16, 2020

The BoE’s ongoing easing programme means it need not announce any policy change at this meeting. However, with insufficient room to continue…

In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Credit

How Big Tech Lenders Will Disrupt The Business Cycle

September 16, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell A new BIS paper finds that Big Tech lenders using big data to assess creditworthiness hold informational…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

September 15, 2020

Issues arising from the new ‘Powell doctrine’ (Vox EU, 6 min read) Economist Ignazio Angeloni points out that AIT assumes past inflation…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

September 15, 2020

Follow Buffett into Japan (WisdomTree, 4 min read) Japanese general trading firms offer cheap valuation, attractive dividend yield, and provide an inflation…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

September 15, 2020

Lop-sided Chinese recovery (Twitter, 3 min read) Michael Pettis remains pessimistic on China despite the recent upbeat data. Faster growth in IP…

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US

What Are The Forecasts For A Trump Win?

September 15, 2020

A lot has happened in recent weeks. Anti-police and Black Lives Matter protests have continued, which some have speculated could help Trump.…

Fed Dovish Stance

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

September 2020 FOMC Preview: Struggling To Enhance Their Extreme Dovish Stance

September 15, 2020

Economic uncertainty and recent signs of a slowing recovery suggest the Fed will maintain its cautious outlook and the 2021-22 Summary of…

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics Global Macro US

Key Events

September 14, 2020

Monetary Policy Wednesday’s Fed meeting is the highlight of the week with Chair Powell set to give details on the shift to…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Emerging Markets

COVID-19 World Trade Damage To Services

September 14, 2020

The response of global goods trade to the Covid-19 crisis has been relatively benign Chinese exports have recovered; the country is leading…

GBPEUR

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Geopolitics Monetary Policy & Inflation

A Week Of Contrasts For Euro And Pound

September 10, 2020

This mood music over the past few days has been in stark contrast between Frankfurt and London. ECB president Christine Lagarde today…

China Economy

In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Economics

China Economy Losing Steam

September 10, 2020

Chinese trade data earlier this week showed imports growth falling deeper into negative territory (-2.1% YoY), while credit data due in the…

BTC

In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain

How Bitcoin Prices Are Manipulated

September 09, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell From 1 March 2017 to 31 March 2018, the actual Bitcoin price rose from around $1,191 to…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

Benefits from higher female representation plus the number of ESG ETS continue to rise

September 08, 2020

Economic Aspects of the Energy Transition (NBER) Paper argues that we are not correctly accounting for the increase in electricity prices. Forced…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

A digital yuan and US-China tensions plus China’s new alliance with Russia

September 08, 2020

Digital currency and the new cold war (OMFIF, 6 min read)Argues that China’s move into digital currency is a new front in…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

CS’s Pozsar on FX swaps intermediation at US banks plus the fractional volatility model

September 08, 2020

Global Money Dispatch (Credit Suisse, 17 page read) Zoltan Pozsar calculates the G-SIB risk scores for US banks and finds that JPM’s…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

More on the US election plus rising Greek-Turkey tensions

September 08, 2020

A Big Chunk of White Americans With Degrees And People Of Color Are Behind Trump (FiveThirtyEight, 3 min read) ‘If the race…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

AI does a better job than economists at forecasting and why EMs should avoid a services-orientated growth model

September 08, 2020

Furloughing (Cambridge INET, 34 page read) Women, and more specifically, mothers were most likely to be furloughed during the recent pandemic. They…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Why the UK chancellor should avoid raising taxes and how the US stimulus was saved, not spent

September 08, 2020

Raising taxes could tip us back into recession (The Article, 5 min read) George Magnus argues there is no need to raise…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

BoE admits QE doesn’t work and inflation differentials between AEs and EMs

September 08, 2020

Does quantitative easing boost bank lending to the real economy or cause other bank asset reallocation? The case of the UK (BoE,…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

How to position around the US election and everything you need to know about Amazon

September 08, 2020

Broadening election hedges (Morgan Stanley, Twitter, 1 min read) MS argues to sell equity vol and buy FX/rates vol around US election…

US Election

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics US

Will The FBI Interfere In The US Elections Again?

September 08, 2020

In an era of information overload, it is surprising that there are still things that remain undiscussed. Take the upcoming US elections…

ECB Preview

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

ECB Preview: All About The Euro

September 08, 2020

Euro strength and the current bout of deflation are set to dominate this week’s ECB meeting. We expect no policy announcements, but,…

Bitcoin and Equities

In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Equities US

Did Bitcoin, Rather Than Softbank, Lead The US Stock Sell-off?

September 07, 2020

It is now widely known that Softbank had engaged in significant buying of US tech stocks through options. But it was already…

Employment Report

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Growth & Labour Market US

Will Good News In The August Labour Report Lead To More Bad News?

September 07, 2020

Last Friday’s August labour market report had elements of both glass-half-full and glass-half-empty news. On balance, the half-empty glass still looks bigger…

Africa Eurbond

In: Hive Exclusives | Credit Emerging Markets

African Eurobond Issuers, Not All About Default

September 04, 2020

African Sovereign Eurobonds have lagged the broader EM rally Debt sustainability must be assessed on a country-by-country basis Transparency and financial innovation…

Equity Sell-off

In: Hive Exclusives | Equities US

5 Things You Need To Know About The US Stocks Collapse

September 04, 2020

US equities finally showed some weakness. The S&P500 fell 3.5% on Thursday, while the NASDAQ fell 5%. Here are five things you…

UK Economy

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics UK

The Gloomy UK Economic Conundrum

September 03, 2020

Brexit uncertainty, the UK’s economic makeup, a dovish sounding Bank of England and a possible early end to fiscal stimulus are all…

Bullish INR

In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX

Turning Positive On INR

September 03, 2020

New highs in India’s basic balance should support further INR strength Currency strength remains at odds with a very weak macro outlook…

Fed AIT

In: Hive Exclusives | FX Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Fed AIT, A New Salvo In The Undeclared Currency Wars?

September 03, 2020

Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) could be a net negative for the dollar as other global central banks appear unable or unwilling to…

In: Deep Dives | Economics Investment Strategy

High-Frequency Capital Flow Proxies Are Good At Predicting BoP Flows

September 02, 2020

Introduction Policymakers need timely information on capital flows to inform decisions on monetary policy and foreign exchange intervention. Official balance of payments…

Trump Election Odds

In: Hive Exclusives | US

Trump Re-election Odds Jump, As Does Chance Of Rising Market Uncertainty

September 02, 2020

Donald Trump’s chances of winning re-election on 3 November are rising. The likelihood of a Democrat sweep – and with it any…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

Pandemic brings ESG to the fore

September 01, 2020

Did ESG improve resiliency during Q1 (Jon Hale, 8 min read) Summarises recent academic papers and finds ‘companies valuing stakeholders during pandemic…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

The cost of urbanisation

September 01, 2020

Tsai authorities deserve a stern warning from Beijing (Global Times, 3 min read) Chinese editorial warns Taiwan about recent US aircraft recon…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Predicting COVID cases with Google data and capital controls and international flows

September 01, 2020

Short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic using Google Trends data: Evidence from 158 countries (Applied Econometrics, 27 page read) Finds Google data…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

Abe’s resignation and Germany after Merkel

September 01, 2020

Why Minnesota Could Be The Next Midwestern State To Go Red (FiveThirtyEight, 5 min read) ‘Most ominously for Democrats, there is evidence…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

IMF on the cost of FX stability and the ECB on the international impact of incomplete EMU

September 01, 2020

Covid-19 briefing: heterogeneous impacts of the pandemic (Bank Underground, 5 min read) Summarises recent literature finds ‘workers in jobs with close proximity…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

LSE on locating hidden wealth to boost tax revenues

September 01, 2020

Taxing hidden wealth: the consequences of U.S. enforcement initiatives on evasive foreign accounts (LSE, 58 page read) Finds a 2008 US effort…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

BoE on QE and bank lending plus the ECB on IMF conditionality and CB independence

September 01, 2020

Does Quantitative Easing Boost Bank Lending to the Real Economy or Cause other Bank Asset Reallocation? (BoE, 32 page read) During the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Michael Spence on the disconnect between valuations and the real economy

September 01, 2020

Governments have given us so much, do they have anything left to give? (GMO, 17 page read) GMO argues that HY credit…

Shinzo Abe

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics

PM Abe’s Missed Opportunity To Make Japan Great Again

September 01, 2020

Last week’s surprise resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe raises questions over what’s next for the country. Abe’s political clout and…

Average Inflation

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

Average Inflation Targeting: Positive For Markets, Less So For Consumer Prices

August 28, 2020

At Jackson Hole today Chair Powell announced a move to average inflation targeting, reflected in changes to the Statement of Longer Run…

Norway Bank

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics

Norway: Is Norges Bank The Only Game In Town?

August 27, 2020

USD/NOK has finally broken below 9.00 in recent weeks after enormous turbulence in March. Although the usual drivers could explain this move…

US Election Ballot

In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Investment Strategy US

US Elections And Stock Market Performance

August 26, 2020

With the US presidential elections a little over two months away, what can we infer from the existing body of literature around…

In: Hive Exclusives | US

Economy, Not Conventions, Matter For Trump

August 26, 2020

Despite many firsts – the first virtual convention, the first woman of colour on a presidential ticket (Kamala Harris) – the Democratic…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

The definition problem and ESG in the food industry

August 25, 2020

Eat clean: The hottest trends as food moves into an ESG-conscious age (CityWire, 2 min read) ‘The way in which food is produced and…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

Struggling SMEs and Xi’s focus

August 25, 2020

China’s banks must innovate to help small businesses weather ‘complex and severe’ economic environment (SCMP, 4 min read) Suggests China’s small businesses are struggling.…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

Changing attitudes on US immigration and what if Trump disputes the election results

August 25, 2020

What Happens if Donald Trump Fights the Election Results? (New Yorker, 10 min read) Runs through historical cases of electoral games – but argues that…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

A k-shaped recovery and risks from LT unemployment

August 25, 2020

Mitigating Long-Term Unemployment in Europe (IMF, 24 page read) For those interested in EU labour markets, the COVID-19 pandemic could likely aggravate the long-term…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Inflation post COVID and the case against shadow rate models

August 25, 2020

Monitoring the Inflationary Effects of COVID-19 (FRBSF, 6 page read) San Fran Fed decomposes PCE inflation COVID categories. They find that the demand shock…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

IMF guide to capital flow data and the BoE on understanding capital flows

August 25, 2020

The Cross-Section of Currency Volatility Premia (Journal of Financial Economics, 18 page read) A zero-cost portfolio strategy that buys forward volatility agreements in currencies…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Skidelsky on crowding out and policy and poverty during the pandemic

August 25, 2020

Skidelsky on crowding out and policy and poverty during the pandemic Income and Poverty in the COVID-19 Pandemic (NBER, 65 page read) ‘Results indicate…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

PIMCO likes gold and GMO bearish on equities

August 25, 2020

Nouriel Roubini says reports of the dollar’s demise are greatly exaggerated (Marketwatch, 3 min read) Roubini argues that recent dollar weakness is due to…

Bullish RMB

In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Economics FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

China: Keep The Faith

August 25, 2020

My discussions with macro investors have recently centred around two questions. First, could the RMB extend its gains further? And second, could…

Economics Planning

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation

Resource Optimization vs Surplus Distribution: The Case For Modern State Economic Planning

August 25, 2020

(A punched card from the mid-20th century, used for data input, output and storage)   Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has finally hit…

In: Hive Exclusives | Geopolitics

What Russia And Germany Want In Belarus

August 21, 2020

Belarus, one of the few remaining autocratic regimes in the post-Soviet space, is in the middle of an acute political crisis. Acting…

Currency War

In: Hive Exclusives | FX

The Return Of Global Currency Wars

August 20, 2020

A strong dollar can be a problem for the global economy (especially highly indebted emerging markets). But on the other end of…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Spike In MBA Delinquencies Shows Debt Forbearance Is Having Intended Effect

August 20, 2020

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Q2 delinquency spike likely overstates the extent of delinquencies and suggests that the administration debt forbearance policy…

Bitcoin Gold

In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology Commodities & Energy Cryptocurrencies & Blockchain US

Could US Tech Companies Start Buying Gold And Bitcoin?

August 20, 2020

US corporate cash holdings have risen to record highs in recent years, both outright and as a percentage of net worth. A…

In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX

Korean FX Markets To Ignore COVID Second Wave

August 20, 2020

USD/KRW has stabilised around 1185 – its post-COVID lows – in recent weeks. This comes even as Korea faces a second wave…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Emerging Markets Monetary Policy & Inflation

The Inflation Outlook In A Post-Covid World

August 20, 2020

• Global inflation fell sharply in the early months of the Covid-19 crisis, mainly because of oil • Core inflation fell most…

Hedge Funds and Asset Managers

In: Deep Dives | Investment Strategy Rates

How Hedge Funds And Asset Managers Make Money In Bonds

August 19, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell There has always been a question of how hedge funds and asset managers make money. By exploiting…

Gold Peak

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy

Peak Gold?

August 18, 2020

The sharp decline in gold prices last week has triggered heated debate among market participants. The bulls argue that this is just…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

Making the case for ESG, and providing green-conditional debt relief

August 18, 2020

ESG Disclosure Trends in SEC Filings (White and Case, 10 min read) “Every company surveyed increased its ESG disclosures in at least…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

Rogoff on China’s real estate, and former Biden advisor talks China strategy

August 18, 2020

Peak China Housing (NBER, 44 page read) Ken Rogoff et al do a deep dive on China real estate and argues that…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

Trump is heading into the elections all guns blazing

August 18, 2020

Just How Far Will Trump Go? (The Atlantic, 5 min read) President Trump seems to be weaponizing virtually every component of the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

Using the yield curve to predict, and economic fundamentals to inform on policy

August 18, 2020

Investor Sentiment, Sovereign Debt Mispricing and Economic Outcomes (IMF, 18 page read) A country’s underlying fundamentals must inform on its fiscal strategy…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

IMF and ECB stress tests show US and EU vulnerability

August 18, 2020

United States: Financial System Stability Assessment (IMF, 79 page read) Pre-pandemic, a rise in corporate leverage and the migration of risks to…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

FinTech dominance, bond market predictions and global trade data

August 18, 2020

Risk and Return in International Corporate Bond Markets (ECB, 55 page read) Average corporate bond returns increase with risk, something the world…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Policy challenges, trade openness and the economic impacts of inequality

August 18, 2020

The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures (IMF, 27 page read) NO2 emissions, flight data, energy consumption, maritime trade and mobility are…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Equities are bouncing back quickly, and risk-taking is related to bonuses and DNA

August 18, 2020

Molecular Genetics, Risk Aversion, Return Perceptions and Stock Market Participation (NBER, 39 page read) Paper suggests that genetic endowments are shown to…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

The US Treasury’s Cash Management Could Undermine Fed Independence

August 13, 2020

The Treasury Government Account (TGA), which is the US Treasury’s checking account at the Fed, has become so large that the Fed…

In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Turkey: Doing It Again!

August 13, 2020

Turkish policymakers have returned to the populist policies of yesteryear that pushed the country to the brink in 2018, when inflation surged…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Equities

Equities Care About Vaccines, Not Second Waves

August 13, 2020

Numerous countries are experiencing second waves of COVID-19 infections – not that you would know from their equity market performance. Take the…

In: Deep Dives | Business & Technology Monetary Policy & Inflation

FinTech And BigTech Are Taking Over

August 12, 2020

The Context A new IMF paper looks at how innovations in information and communication have (i) provided greater opportunities for new financial…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Emerging Markets FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations With Dr Reza Baqir

August 11, 2020

We were delighted to have serving Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (2019-current) and 18-year veteran of the IMF Dr Reza…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Ed Yardeni on bullish bonds and Morgan Stanley on bullish USD

August 11, 2020

May the Bond Vigilantes Rest in Peace (Dr Ed’s Blog, 8 min read) Long-time bond follower Ed Yardeni argues that the Fed won’t raise…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

How firms with intangible assets respond less to changes in monetary policy

August 11, 2020

Financial Markets and News About the Coronavirus (Vox EU, 8 min read) During the early stages of the pandemic, markets overreacted to ‘uninformative news’.…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Yanis Varoufakis on why the EU recovery fund will divide Europe and how ageing economies benefit less from fiscal stimulus

August 11, 2020

Solidarity With the Germans (Project Syndicate, 5 min read) Former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis believes the EU Recovery Fund will divide Europe, not…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

How the economic outcomes from the COVID recession are counterintuitive and the value of luck for CEO’s in the labour market

August 11, 2020

The Most Counterintuitive Recession Ever (A Wealth of Common Sense, 4 min read) In 2Q household debt and delinquency of these debts has fallen…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

How Turkey is acting like Russia and how tackling fake news requires us to recognize our own misperceptions

August 11, 2020

Regional Variations in the Brexit Vote: Causes and Potential Consequences (IZA, 18 page read) It has been extensively documented that age and education were…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Investment implications of a weaker dollar

August 11, 2020

Which Investments Benefit From a Weaker Dollar? (A Wealth of Common Sense,3 min read) ‘In years of dollar weakness [since 1978], foreign stocks have…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

Why Chinese bond yields are rising whilst global yields are falling and how the US may lose the TikTok War

August 11, 2020

China’s Higher Bond Yields Buck the Global Trend (Advisor Perspectives, 4 min read) Chinese bond yields are rising while global bonds are falling due…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

Global sustainable fund achieves record level inflow

August 11, 2020

Global Sustainable Fund Assets Leap to All-Time High (Expert Investor, 6 min read) Morningstar reports assets in sustainable funds achieved a record…

In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX

Indian Rupee Weakness Expected

August 06, 2020

USD/INR has struggled to break below 74.50 over the past month even as the dollar (DXY) has weakened. This reflects a broader…

In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX

Taiwan Dollar Strength Could Continue

August 06, 2020

The Taiwan dollar (TWD) has recently started to show some strength – it was up almost 1% against the dollar in the…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

MMT: A Free Lunch? Or A Stale, Old Lunch In A Shiny New Lunchbox? (Part II)

August 06, 2020

In Part I of this series I examined a few popular, mainstream critiques of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and concluded that they…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Inflation In The 21st Century Is A Supply-Side Phenomenon

August 06, 2020

‘It is habitually assumed that whenever there is a greater amount of money in the country, or in existence, a rise of…

Coronavirus Immigration

In: Deep Dives | COVID-19 Sustainability & Social Issues

Early Border Closures Can Control COVID-19 Caseloads

August 05, 2020

The Study in a Nutshell The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. Almost no country has…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

Google issues ESG bond

August 04, 2020

Environment, Social and Governance Risks Are Financial Risks (Russell Investments, 8 min read) Selecting securities without considering ESG is risky. For example,…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

How better Iran relationship can give China more control of Asia, and why Biden is bullish for Chinese equity

August 04, 2020

China Plays the Iran Card (Project Syndicate, 5 min read) Former senior adviser to US state department Vali Nasr and scholar Ariane…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Google Trends as a proxy for investor sentiment, and using options to predict Japanese stock performance

August 04, 2020

Informed Trading in Government Bond Markets (BOE, 25 page read) A great paper that uses regulatory data to assess the predictive power…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

Nouriel Roubini on 2020 white swans, and how postponement of elections could make Biden president

August 04, 2020

Revisiting the White Swans of 2020 (Project Syndicate, 7 min read) Nouriel Roubini re-states major risks for 2020. These include: Russia using…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

How commodity prices explain economic activity

August 04, 2020

Does the Commodity Super Cycle Matter? (NBER, 26 page read) It doesn’t, really, when it comes to world growth. Yet the paper…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Joseph Stiglitz calls for EM debt buybacks

August 04, 2020

How to Prevent the Looming Sovereign-Debt Crisis (Project Syndicate, 8 min read) Joseph Stiglitz highlights how around 100 low- and middle-income countries…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Central banks are trapped with low rates

August 04, 2020

Time inconsistency in recent monetary policy (Vox EU, 15 min read) Goodhart highlights the problems with low and negative rates such as…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Gold and credit are in favour, and doubts around ongoing dollar weakness

August 04, 2020

Why Is Gold Rising? (A Wealth of Common Sense, 5 min read) First, real interest rates are falling – since 2008, the…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19

Lady Sings The Market Blues?

August 03, 2020

Trawling Netflix for interesting viewing, as you do these days to relieve ennui, I came across the 2018 docufilm on Eric Clapton,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Emerging Markets FX

Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam All Risk ‘Currency Manipulator’ Label

July 30, 2020

The forthcoming US Treasury FX manipulation report will probably add several Asian countries to its watchlist. It may even go so far…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Growth & Labour Market US

US Growth Back To Full Speed Ahead?

July 30, 2020

The recovery is likely to move sideways for a month or so before restarting due to the implementation of the new COVID-19 budget package and a…

Fed Dovish

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

July FOMC Preview: The Setup For Dovish September Policy Moves?

July 29, 2020

This past year feels like a blur for all the obvious reasons. But before the all-out blitzkrieg easing campaign that the Fed…

Mobility

In: Deep Dives | COVID-19 Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Mobility, Not Lockdown Easing, Will Drive The Recovery

July 29, 2020

Changing Behaviour is More Important Than Easing Lockdown Measures The COVID-19 pandemic has dealt both health and economic blows. As new data…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

Why some ESG companies outperform

July 28, 2020

ESG Investing Stands Out During COVID-19 Volatility (Invesco, 4 min read) Invesco compared S&P 500 performance with top-ranked ESG companies within its…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

Yu Yongding on China’s policy dilemmas, and Michael Pettis on the importance of institutional reform

July 28, 2020

China’s Fiscal Dilemma (Project Syndicate, 6 min read) Yu Yongding, former monetary policy committee member of PBoC, highlights the dilemma the Chinese…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Changing characteristics of haven assets, and FX/capital flow co-movement during global stress

July 28, 2020

The Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Safe-Haven Assets (Vox EU, 7 min read) ‘The findings suggest that the character of safe-haven…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

How black voters can boost Biden’s chances of winning the presidency, and El-Erian on US-China tensions

July 28, 2020

Is a China-US ‘Rivalry Partnership’ Possible? (Project Syndicate, 6 min read) The chief economic adviser at Allianz, Mohamed El-Erian, believes Sino-American escalation…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

PPP programme and US employment, and why teleworking jobs are less vulnerable during recessions

July 28, 2020

Unemployment in Today’s Recession Compared to the Global Financial Crisis (IMF Blog, 2 min read) Unemployment in teleworkable jobs remained lower both…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

JP bullish on Europe, and country-level analysis of government actions and their COVID outcome

July 28, 2020

Is the EU Recovery Fund a Game-Changer for Investing in Europe? (JPM Asset Management, 2 min read) ‘Countries across Europe now have…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Nathan Tankus on large CB balance sheets, and how YCC can increase market volatility

July 28, 2020

The Way People Talk About the Federal Reserve’s ‘Big’ Balance Sheet is All Wrong (Notes on Crisis, 7 min read) A large…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Stephen Roach on the USD decline, and bullish calls on gold

July 28, 2020

Gold Is Within Striking Distance of Its All-Time High. Here’s How to Play the Rally (Advisor Perspectives, 6 min read) Frank Holmes…

US Treasury Note

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Rates US

Limited Upside To Yields – Until Funding Competition Resumes

July 24, 2020

Despite the extraordinary US budget deficit, a very dovish Fed and depressed private investment suggest the Treasury could term out some of…

INR Outlook

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Emerging Markets FX

Asia FX Outlook – Why INR Continues To Defy Gloomy Outlook

July 23, 2020

- CNY appreciation to continue despite mixed signals on recovery - C/A dynamics support INR, but economic outlook remains weak - Gloomy…

China Growth

In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Geopolitics Growth & Labour Market US

China Growth Tracker – Still Strong Even With More US-China Tensions

July 23, 2020

We recently published a note on how to track Chinese growth in real-time using financial and commodity market prices. In these weekly…

In: Deep Dives | Equities Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Trump Tax Cuts – Which Sectors Were the Eventual Winners?

July 22, 2020

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act – Some Win, Some Lose, Markets Got It Wrong On the 22 December 2017, President Trump…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

DoL’s new rule on ESG holding in 401ks, and how natural disaster can trigger sovereign defaults

July 21, 2020

BlackRock Shows Resolve and Restraint in Public Climate Test (Advisor Perspectives, 4 min read) BlackRock screened 244 companies that weren’t doing enough…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

Decoding the UK sanction on China, and why JP likes Chinese Equities

July 21, 2020

China’s Deepening Geopolitical Hole (Project Syndicate, 6 min read) Minxin Pei sees the UK’s action to ban Huawei 5G network as a…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

The role of yield curves in predicting FX, and the macro factors driving equity and bond risks

July 21, 2020

Uncovering Uncovered Interest Parity: Exchange Rates, Yield Curves and Business Cycles (Bank Underground, 8 min read) The slope of the yield curve…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

Potential NATO disintegration, and the factors driving populism

July 21, 2020

NATO Is Dying (Project Syndicate, 7 min read)Ex foreign minister of Spain Ana Palacio believes that without US leadership NATO may disintegrate.…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

Krugman on upcoming financial distress in the US, and disincentives of LT cash transfers to the poor

July 21, 2020

The Next Disaster Is Just a Few Days Away (NY Times, 6 min read) Nobel laureate Paul Krugman considers cancellation of the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Why expectations of further US fiscal stimulus might disappoint SPX, and how rising stocks lead to inequality

July 21, 2020

Investors Perhaps Too Enthusiastic About Future Fiscal Stimulus (Janus Henderson, 6 min read) After analysing Fed meetings, speeches, and beige book releases,…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Russel Napier on inflation, and how CPI weights could underestimate inflation during COVID

July 21, 2020

Central Banks Have Become Irrelevant (The Market, 11 min read) Scottish market strategist Russel Napier saw disinflation as the dominant theme for…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Amundi likes US fixed income, and echoes of bearish 60/40 portfolio from Man and KKR

July 21, 2020

10 Major Investment Implications (and 32 charts!) of a Weak US Dollar (Advisor Perspectives, 7 min read) Segments of the stocks market…

US Dollar

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics FX US

Dollar Dominance In The Age Of COVID

July 21, 2020

[Bullish Dollar] The virus has catalysed more, perhaps, than it has caused. Established trends in geopolitics, economics, financial markets, public policy, and…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics

EU Recovery Fund Agreement To Set Tone For The Summer

July 21, 2020

After four days of negotiations, EU27 leaders have agreed a landmark deal on a European recovery fund and the next seven-year budget.…

COVID Fragile 5

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Economics Emerging Markets

The C-19 Crisis And The Fragile-5

July 21, 2020

The Fragile-5 recovered quickly from the capital flow shock in March, and rates have fallenThe yield decline reflects a steep markdown in…

Asia FX Momentum

In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets FX

How Asia FX Futures Can Improve FX Momentum Strategy Performance

July 20, 2020

G10 FX momentum strategies have delivered poor returns over the past decade.Part of this could be due to a lack of diversification;…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Three Conditions For A Lasting Inflation Acceleration

July 16, 2020

[Bearish Bonds, Stocks, USD / Bullish TIPS & Gold] A spike in inflation is likely when the US economy normalizes. Beyond that,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Macro Hive Smart Investor Survey: Results

July 16, 2020

We recently surveyed our Macro Hive network. The respondents were mainly sophisticated investors and analysts from financial institutions covering both buy and…

In: Hive Exclusives | Fiscal Policy & Inequality Monetary Policy & Inflation

MMT: A Free Lunch? Or A Stale, Old Lunch In A Shiny New Lunchbox? (Part I)

July 16, 2020

MMT in a Nutshell, and Mainstream Criticism With government deficits exploding around the world as economic officials seek to counter the various…

In: Deep Dives | Economics Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates US

UST Liquidity: Safe-Haven Status At Risk Or A Sign Of B/S Constraints?

July 15, 2020

What is liquidity? In market parlance, it’s the idea that investors have the ability to quickly buy or sell an asset without…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Europe Preview: EU Summit To Set Summer Mood

July 15, 2020

The next few days could mark an important turning point for Europe. Agreement on a €750bn EU recovery fund, even if only…

In: Deep Dives | Emerging Markets FX

The Diversification Benefits Of Asia FX Futures

July 15, 2020

‘Emerging’ Asia economies are now as large as advanced economies, yet investors continue to show bias towards trading developed markets.At the same…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

COVID Paradox and BoE decodes the role of CB’s swap lines during dollar shortages

July 14, 2020

Covid-19 Cases Are Rising, So Why Are Deaths Falling? (Defense One, 9 min read) Deaths lag cases by up to a month,…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

ESG as a factor disappoints

July 14, 2020

Factor Research for the Corporate Bond Market (FactSet, 6 min read) Low Risk (low overall debt burden factors like debt/EBITDA and debt/FFO)…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

Herbert Poenisch draws comparison of renminbi to 1960s Eurodollar market, and how China is not engaging in global negative externalities

July 14, 2020

Eurodollar Lessons for Hong Kong Renminbi (OMFIF, 4 min read) The Eurodollar market in London in the 1960s played an essential role…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

Former UK prime minister on education in poorer countries, and how Trump’s young base is eroding

July 14, 2020

President Trump is Losing Support Among Young White Working-Class Voters (Brookings, 4 min read) Survey results reveal that white working-class voters below…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

JPAM on double dip recession in the US, and LGIM on why they think the US economy is running out of stream

July 14, 2020

Expectations Diverge for Economic Recovery in the US and China (Invesco, 3 min read) Both the US and Chinese stock markets have…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Schroders on UK budget, and why cutting US unemployment benefit will be catastrophic

July 14, 2020

UK Mini Budget Delivers Minimal Boost (Schroders, 5 min read) Policy changes announced will not have a massive impact on job creation…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

How monetary policy leads to happiness, and William Blair on monetary regime change

July 14, 2020

The Death of the Inflation Regime (William Blair, 9 min read) William Blair outlines the negative impact of the current monetary practices…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Amundi on EU Cyclicals, and Robert Shiller on how FOMO caused the S&P 500 rally

July 14, 2020

Time to Play a Cyclical Recovery in European Equity (Amundi, 17 pages read) Amundi is bullish European cyclicals due to the following…

In: Hive Exclusives | COVID-19 Emerging Markets FX Monetary Policy & Inflation

Podcast Review: Macro Hive Conversations With Raghuram Rajan

July 14, 2020

We were delighted to have former RBI governor (2013-2016) and former IMF chief economist (2003-2006) Raghuram Rajan as our podcast guest last…

Iron Ore China

In: Hive Exclusives | China & Hong Kong Commodities & Energy Economics Growth & Labour Market

Using Iron Ore To Track China Growth

July 14, 2020

[Bullish Equities, Bullish Euro] China now competes with the US as a key driver of global growth. Yet the quality of Chinese…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Will Mass Immunization Turn Out Negative For Markets?

July 09, 2020

Mass immunization against COVID-19 could begin as early as mid-2021 – sooner than policymakers and market participants expect. And when it does,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics FX Growth & Labour Market Rates

Asia FX Outlook – Remaining Bullish On China

July 09, 2020

- CNY to benefit from rising yield differentials and a strong recovery - INR continues to defy dismal economic reality due to…

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy

Iron Ore: A Primer On The ‘New Crude’

July 09, 2020

After crude oil, iron ore is the world’s largest traded commodity by both weight and value. At any one point in time,…

In: Deep Dives | Equities Investment Strategy

How S&P500 Performs In Different VIX Regimes

July 08, 2020

‘Be water my friend.’ Elegant, insightful, evocative, and one of the best-known quotes of perhaps the greatest martial artist of all time,…

In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology COVID-19

Fintech In Crisis, Part II: From Alternative Payments To Alternative Money

July 08, 2020

In Part I of this series, I explored how the Covid-19 scare has highlighted some of the major challenges already facing the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

Bernstein on how ESG can help generate alpha, and top fiscal projects which boost growth and are climate-friendly

July 07, 2020

ESG Research Helps Reveal Resilience amid COVID-19 (Alliance Bernstein, 5 min read) Investors who integrate ESG factors into their research have an…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

Cross-border capital flows into China are increasing, and digital renminbi rolls out

July 07, 2020

Despite the Rhetoric, US-China Financial Decoupling Is Not Happening (PIIE, 7 min read) A survey shows 80% of US companies will not…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Liquidity of new 20-year, and gold’s correlation with real yields

July 07, 2020

How Liquid Is the New 20-Year Treasury Bond? (Liberty Street Economics, 8 min read)  The trading frequency, trading volume and trade size…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

What Biden should do if he is elected, and ING on trade deal post Brexit

July 07, 2020

Will Russia’s Constitutional Changes Allow Putin to Hold on to Power? (CFR, 4 min read) Putin’s constitutional amendments have made him more…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

Andy Haldane on the UK’s economic outlook, and accounting errors in US unemployment rates

July 07, 2020

State Ownership Will Gain Importance as a Result of COVID-19 (Vox EU, 12 min read) Globally, state-owned enterprises are among the largest…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Joseph Stiglitz on US Policy priorities

July 07, 2020

Priorities for the COVID-19 Economy (Project Syndicate, 7 min read) A V-shaped recovery in the US is a fantasy, says Nobel laureate…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

Willem Buiter on the Fed’s problematic policies and how QE can be problematic for EM

July 07, 2020

Three Strikes Against the Fed (Vox EU, 12 min read) The former chief economist of Citi, Willem Buiter, outlines faulty Fed practices:…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Gold as a portfolio diversifier, and a bullish case for US small caps

July 07, 2020

Owning Gold Is as Much About Diversification as It Is about Capital Appreciation (Advisor Perspectives, 6 min read) Hypothetically if the 10-year…

Us Labour Market

In: Hive Exclusives | Growth & Labour Market US

Labour Market Still Labouring: Will It Get The Support It Needs?

July 06, 2020

Last week’s employment report offered several positive indicators for a nascent recovery. Payroll employment jumped by 4.8 million or 3.6%. The official…

Bank Indonesia

In: Hive Exclusives | Emerging Markets Monetary Policy & Inflation Rates

Bank Indonesia To Monetize Debt

July 06, 2020

Indonesia’s finance minister and Bank Indonesia’s (BI) governor have announced a ‘burden sharing’ plan to fund part of the government’s fiscal stimulus.…

In: Hive Exclusives | Business & Technology COVID-19

Fintech In Crisis – And NOT Because Of Covid-19

July 02, 2020

[Bearish Fintech] The fintech industry is in crisis, and on multiple fronts. Two had already become active before the Covid-19 scare: alternative…

In: Hive Exclusives | Monetary Policy & Inflation US

Is The Fed Moving Away From LSAPs?

July 02, 2020

The Fed could be moving towards an operational framework where it directly targets access to credit in the real economy rather than…

Brazil Economy

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Emerging Markets

Brazil: Looking Into The Abyss?

July 02, 2020

[Bearish Brazil] The Brazilian economy is sliding into a deep recession: it has begun to contract even in nominal terms for the…

Oil 2020

In: Hive Exclusives | Commodities & Energy Investment Strategy

Reinforcing Our Bullish Oil Call With Driving And Mobility Data

July 01, 2020

Re-opening of economies and less use of public transport should see energy demand pick up. OPEC supply cuts and global producers shutting down…

World Leaders

In: Hive Exclusives | Economics Geopolitics

Five Major Geopolitical Risks Over The Next 12 Months

July 01, 2020

COVID will have a long-term impact on the global economy, but other geopolitical risks could also have significant macro and financial market…

In: Deep Dives | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure Growth & Labour Market US

US Labour Market Data Is Calculated Incorrectly

July 01, 2020

A provocative new paper argues that US labour market data contains several biases that systematically understate the level of unemployment in the…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | ESG & Climate Change

Macro implication of ESG practises and Charles Schwab on SRI performance

June 30, 2020

The Effect of Firm-level ESG Practices on Macroeconomic Performance (Oxford Sustainable Programme, 19-page read) Firm-level ESG practices are positively associated with GDP…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | China

LGIM on why China debt risk is low and novels ways China exerts political pressure

June 30, 2020

What has the crisis meant for debt levels in China? (LGIM, 4 min read) Legal & General’s China credit scorecard that tracks…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Data, Models & Market Infrastructure

Alt data helps catch market signals early and scars of COVID on growth.

June 30, 2020

How alternative data can lend clarity amid uncertainty (BlackRock, 5 min read) Foot traffic indicated a Chinese rebound in May. Similarly, natural…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Politics

Amundi on how to play the US election and how the pandemic creates difficulties for the IMF

June 30, 2020

America Didn't Give Up on Covid-19. Republicans Did. (NYT, 6 min read) Rising COVID cases in Republican-controlled states,  such as Arizona, Florida…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Growth & Labour Market

IMF Latam growth outlook and how the markets ignore the shape of the recovery

June 30, 2020

Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean: An Intensifying Pandemic (IMF Blog, 6 min read) The region has become the new global…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Fiscal Policy & Inequality

Roubini on the US protests and why the US had less fiscal success than France

June 30, 2020

The Main Street Manifesto (Project Syndicate, 6 min read) Current protests in the US are not only a response to systemic racism…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Monetary Policy & Inflation

The importance of independent CBs in the COVID world and why William Blair doesn’t see higher inflation

June 30, 2020

Necessary, suitable and proportionate (ECB blog, 5 min read) ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel argues that without measures such as PEPP…

In: Bilal's Top Picks | Markets and Investing

Bearish USD calls and BlackRock are bullish on European government bonds

June 30, 2020

What is the outlook for the US dollar? (JP Morgan AM, 5 min read)  A federal funds rate remaining at zero for…