Henry Occleston is a Strategist, who focuses on European markets. Formerly, he worked in European credit and rates strategy at Mizuho Bank, and market strategy at Lloyds Bank. He holds a BA in Economics from Durham University, and an MSc in Economics & Social History from the University of Oxford.
Europe | Monetary Policy & Inflation | Rates
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the ECB to cut 25bp on 12 December. It will also update macroeconomic projections, which are likely to see dovish revisions with inflation sustainably at target in H1 2025. We expect the ECB to avoid fully opening the way to 50bp cuts, but comments will likely add that they are flexible to […]
Henry Occleston
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Could Germany Become the Eurozone’s Savior? Eurozone integration never moves faster than it absolutely must. However, its greatest developments […]
Henry Occleston
This article is part of Macro Hive’s 2025 Grey Swan series, where we let our imaginations loose to try and predict low-probability, high-impact events that almost no one expects. You can read the full list here. Petition Impossible Almost three million people have signed a petition calling for a fresh General Election. Just seventeen more […]
Henry Occleston
Summary ECB voters have started discussing where R* is. But there is little appetite right now in discussing cutting below the neutral rate. We estimate consensus R* is around 2-2.5%, making the market pricing (1.70% in October 2025) look overly dovish. The US election outcome has driven some of this. It probably underestimates the reality […]
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