Henry Occleston is a Strategist, who focuses on European markets. Formerly, he worked in European credit and rates strategy at Mizuho Bank, and market strategy at Lloyds Bank. He holds a BA in Economics from Durham University, and an MSc in Economics & Social History from the University of Oxford.
Europe | Monetary Policy & Inflation | Trade Idea
Henry Occleston
Summary ECB voters have started discussing where R* is. But there is little appetite right now in discussing cutting below the neutral rate. We estimate consensus R* is around 2-2.5%, making the market pricing (1.70% in October 2025) look overly dovish. The US election outcome has driven some of this. It probably underestimates the reality […]
Henry Occleston
Summary The BoE cut 25bp last week as expected. The MPR forecasts and tone of comments were largely in line with our base-case expectation. Inflation was revised down near-term, but revised up in the long-term too, albeit with the positive skew removed as per our base-case. Headline and core CPI profiles to year-end seem reasonable, […]
Henry Occleston
Summary We expect the BoE will cut rates by 25bp this week, with a 6:3 vote split. The accompanying MPR will be important, there are many moving parts, particularly the inclusion of the UK’s new budget. My expectation is that BoE look through much of the budget impact, retain expectations for further gradual easing, and […]
Henry Occleston, Caroline Grady
Summary The ECB is widely expected to cut its depo rate by another 25bps on Thursday. Below-target inflation and increasing signs of economic, and in particular labour market, weakness are why. But we expect a cautious tone given inflation is set to rise again in Q4, risks over January repricing remain, and Q2 employment growth […]
Spring sale - Prime Membership only £3 for 3 months! Get trade ideas and macro insights now
Your subscription has been successfully canceled.
Discount Applied - Your subscription has now updated with Coupon and from next payment Discount will be applied.